Jump to content



Photo

Market will never go down


  • Please log in to reply
12 replies to this topic

#1 Scott-stock

Scott-stock

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 128 posts

Posted 16 February 2007 - 04:20 PM

This market had every chance to go down. Microsoft, Housing starts, Oil, etc and it keeps on going up. It appears it will never go down.

#2 Jnavin

Jnavin

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 2,126 posts

Posted 16 February 2007 - 04:32 PM

Not on options expiration day. Up 2 points at the close is actually down. You're not thinking like a criminal here.

#3 nimblebear

nimblebear

    Welcome to the Dark Side !

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,062 posts

Posted 16 February 2007 - 04:35 PM

This market had every chance to go down. Microsoft, Housing starts, Oil, etc and it keeps on going up. It appears it will never go down.


Thats pretty cool, isn't it ? Fully safe to invest on the long side with two fists. Money manager on Radio, said individuals and corp's have tons of cash yet to put to work. Where else kind you find these kinds of returns ?
OTIS.

#4 xe2dy

xe2dy

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 404 posts

Posted 16 February 2007 - 04:55 PM

It used to be: Buy a companies stock based on potential of future growth in the bottom line. Now it sounds like: Buy because there are others with cash and when they start buying the share price will be inflated. The Greater Fool Theory is at hand.

#5 tuffy88

tuffy88

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 797 posts

Posted 16 February 2007 - 05:33 PM

The market is in an uptrend. Will change some day, but until it does the place to be is on the long side regardless of what any indicator or chart says. The market is always right. Any indicator, chart, or person who disagrees with the market is wrong. Always. Charles

#6 pdx5

pdx5

    I want return OF my money more than return ON my money

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,521 posts

Posted 16 February 2007 - 07:01 PM

As soon as the last bear capitulates to the long side and the those on the side lines have had enough and capitulate to the long side, THAT IS WHEN you will see a major correction. Until then only long side is the safer option. Trend is your freind! Go with the flow!!
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#7 nimblebear

nimblebear

    Welcome to the Dark Side !

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,062 posts

Posted 16 February 2007 - 07:22 PM

As soon as the last bear capitulates to the long side and the
those on the side lines have had enough and capitulate to the
long side, THAT IS WHEN you will see a major correction. Until
then only long side is the safer option. Trend is your freind! Go with the flow!!


Bears almost all gone. :huh:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$UST3M:$UST10Y&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&i=p64090839526&a=90816751&r=94.png
OTIS.

#8 fib_1618

fib_1618

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,144 posts

Posted 16 February 2007 - 08:13 PM

Just a quick comment on the Inverted Yield Curve concept (and no NB, I'm not picking on you).

A true inversion of the yield curve, one that forecasts a probable recession, must have the key component in which the long end of the market has already been rising in concert with an economic expansion, and where the longer end starts to decline while the shorter end of the market begins to rise to finally meet the technical proactive forecasts of the bond pits with that of the fundamental reactive forecasting ability of the Federal Reserve. This then creates the conditions that would be necessary for a recession to actually have a chance of occurring (what I call "the choke" factor).

So although today's rate brackets are showing "divergence" between one another (the reason of which can be logically explained in another post), the long end of the market never did decline to meet the shorter ends advance (albeit for a small period of time)...they rose in tandem with each other (though the short end moved higher at an accelerated rate as the FED rushed to correct another error in judgment).

Because of this important distinction between the short and long end of the markets, it would be better to say that the current interest rate tiers are flat than it would be inverted. This would then fully explain why both the economy, and the stock market, have both been able to continue to expand in spite of this same misconception of probable recession...something in which many are still waiting for to happen but won't under these current favorable conditions.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

Technical Watch Subscriptions



 


#9 S.I.M.O.N.

S.I.M.O.N.

    SIMONForecast

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 802 posts

Posted 16 February 2007 - 08:13 PM

Bears almost all gone. :huh:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$UST3M:$UST10Y&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&i=p64090839526&a=90816751&r=94.png

But daddy, its different this time.
:yawn:
*previously known as pnfwave

#10 tomterrific14

tomterrific14

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,451 posts

Posted 16 February 2007 - 09:22 PM

Never go down? What if some modern day Irving Fischer appears on the cover of Time Magazine with the caption "Stocks have reached a pernanent high plateau."? LOL