Market will never go down
#1
Posted 16 February 2007 - 04:20 PM
#2
Posted 16 February 2007 - 04:32 PM
#3
Posted 16 February 2007 - 04:35 PM
This market had every chance to go down. Microsoft, Housing starts, Oil, etc and it keeps on going up. It appears it will never go down.
Thats pretty cool, isn't it ? Fully safe to invest on the long side with two fists. Money manager on Radio, said individuals and corp's have tons of cash yet to put to work. Where else kind you find these kinds of returns ?
#4
Posted 16 February 2007 - 04:55 PM
#5
Posted 16 February 2007 - 05:33 PM
#6
Posted 16 February 2007 - 07:01 PM
#7
Posted 16 February 2007 - 07:22 PM
As soon as the last bear capitulates to the long side and the
those on the side lines have had enough and capitulate to the
long side, THAT IS WHEN you will see a major correction. Until
then only long side is the safer option. Trend is your freind! Go with the flow!!
Bears almost all gone.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$UST3M:$UST10Y&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&i=p64090839526&a=90816751&r=94.png
#8
Posted 16 February 2007 - 08:13 PM
A true inversion of the yield curve, one that forecasts a probable recession, must have the key component in which the long end of the market has already been rising in concert with an economic expansion, and where the longer end starts to decline while the shorter end of the market begins to rise to finally meet the technical proactive forecasts of the bond pits with that of the fundamental reactive forecasting ability of the Federal Reserve. This then creates the conditions that would be necessary for a recession to actually have a chance of occurring (what I call "the choke" factor).
So although today's rate brackets are showing "divergence" between one another (the reason of which can be logically explained in another post), the long end of the market never did decline to meet the shorter ends advance (albeit for a small period of time)...they rose in tandem with each other (though the short end moved higher at an accelerated rate as the FED rushed to correct another error in judgment).
Because of this important distinction between the short and long end of the markets, it would be better to say that the current interest rate tiers are flat than it would be inverted. This would then fully explain why both the economy, and the stock market, have both been able to continue to expand in spite of this same misconception of probable recession...something in which many are still waiting for to happen but won't under these current favorable conditions.
Fib
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#9
Posted 16 February 2007 - 08:13 PM
But daddy, its different this time.Bears almost all gone.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$UST3M:$UST10Y&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&i=p64090839526&a=90816751&r=94.png
:yawn:
#10
Posted 16 February 2007 - 09:22 PM