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Sentiment has not worked except all year long


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#21 Rogerdodger

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Posted 18 February 2007 - 06:09 PM

Semi, "After price, volume." I'm glad you have a handle on it and keep us informed.

Speaking of sentiment: Car's Decision point spotlight notes one thing I have observed:

Bottom Line: The Rydex Cash Flow Ratio shows that investors have been extremely reluctant to accept the market advance from the summer lows. Until they do, the advance is likely to continue.



#22 airedale88

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Posted 19 February 2007 - 05:40 AM

semi, i'm always interested in other forms of T/A. from your last post......... "Right here we're in the middle of that Jan 2001 candle price range. Eventually the Nasdaq will finish this sideways move and we either move smartly down to 2251 or we advance in FAST UPTREND........" so NASD will go up or down. will you get a volume signal before, coincident, or after the move out of your sideways consolidation?
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#23 SemiBizz

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Posted 19 February 2007 - 11:42 AM

semi, i'm always interested in other forms of T/A.
from your last post.........

"Right here we're in the middle of that Jan 2001 candle price range. Eventually the Nasdaq will finish this sideways move and we either move smartly down to 2251 or we advance in FAST UPTREND........"

so NASD will go up or down. will you get a volume signal before, coincident, or after the move out of your sideways consolidation?





Before, I'm sure it's the same in your cycle work. The signal shows up in smaller time frames first and is either confirmed or not in longer time frames. The ideal is what we refer to as "harmony" when the signals agree across all the timeframes. For example, we look at the Nasdaq. There was reason to suspect that the move higher was a head fake based on a bearish upthrust on the daily. There was confirmation of that signal on the weekly. If we continue to advance to a new high on the monthly in February on lighter volume, that sets up a stronger possibility of a reversal ahead. Then if we don't make a new high in March on even more volume a stealth sign of weakness is registered and our expectation is for a test of a previous high volume low. In short, the market doesn't move in a straight line except in "FAST TREND" conditions. The last fast trend on the monthly chart for Nasdaq occured from 3/03 to 1/04... FAST TREND conditions are normally characterized by "Quality of Volume" Meaning progressively higher volume in the direction of the move either FAST UPTREND or FAST DOWNTREND. When we see a "dissonent" move, meaning progressively lighter volume in the direction of the move we are on alert for a reversal...



I have reason to suspect that this move on Nasdaq is turning dissonent, because the volume and price are both flattening, and the smaller timeframes have already alerted me to a bearish upthrust. I hope that helps.
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