http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p22135382622&r=5592.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p50966274753&r=4574.png
Edited by airedale88, 17 February 2007 - 09:36 PM.
Posted 17 February 2007 - 09:28 PM
Edited by airedale88, 17 February 2007 - 09:36 PM.
Posted 17 February 2007 - 09:43 PM
Posted 17 February 2007 - 09:51 PM
Posted 17 February 2007 - 09:59 PM
Agreed.it would be exceedingly rare for any important correction to occur while NYSE breadth remains this strong....
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“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
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Posted 18 February 2007 - 03:52 PM
Posted 18 February 2007 - 11:15 PM
Airedale, there is a clear divergence now in between the new highs made by dow and the NY A/D line. This latest high was also made by less issues in volume. The pull back was also on huge volume. INDU is also diverging from the envelop, it needs to start hitting the top of the envelop soon, otherwise, it will start to hit the bottom of the envelop eventually.
In fact, I am pretty certain that a quick rally to the top of the envelop will be also sold. Obviously, the divergences are not important until confirmed with the price, but once confirmed they can not be ignored anymore...
Everything says a pull back at least, but I don't expect the top to be in before March since there is still so much liquidity despite the fact that the growth in the new liquidity is quickly declining...
Although these divergences or any other economic indicators will not be enough probably to prevent everybody sitting on the sidelines from buying in the next few weeks, or the shorts from covering. So if it blows off more, I won't be surprised...
Personally, I closed my March puts on the pull back that I loaded up on the first 2 wks of the Feb, the calls on Wed thru Fri, rolled my hedges to March and kept the remaining April and June puts on my short side of the portfolio. A few long side allocations remain long, yet the big majority in cash for the long portfolio...
I will try to play the both sides as long as the volatility continues to increase, but I think the risk is also increasing with it. Most of my new long trades will continue to be day or short term swings from here...
I think the open interest in this post Feb-expiration will tell a lot about what to expect next few weeks. One thing is clear, the commercials are overall bearish...
- kisa
Posted 19 February 2007 - 05:14 AM
Posted 19 February 2007 - 06:00 AM
Posted 19 February 2007 - 02:13 PM
it is just that the level of comfort you and Fib (and denleo earlier) exhibit makes me very uncomfortable...
Neither have I, just that this same perceived risk factor is not as high as it can be.i have never implied no risk
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
Technical Watch Subscriptions