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#1 Tor

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Posted 19 February 2007 - 01:50 PM

I wil post more on this later, but this date is a pi date and also corresponds to a top in the 8.5 year cycle, which has been quite reliable. We appear to be following the 1997 top pattern, in terms of timing. Also the summation indices are alerting us to a decline coming (near to top of range).
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#2 fib_1618

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Posted 19 February 2007 - 02:17 PM

but this date is a pi date and also corresponds to a top in the 8.5 year cycle

I, for one, would be interested in seeing price pattern evidence of this particular cycle.

Oh, and make mine rhubarb (pi).

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#3 Tor

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Posted 19 February 2007 - 02:45 PM

Markets are now approaching a dangerous time zone. The upside stop levels for the SPX are 1468, exceeding this would open up 1550 SPX, as part of a fifth wave advance of a slightly bigger diagonal formnig. The 8.6 year cycle is pretty good but not 100%, and over the past 35 years its arrival has been the presursor to declines of between 20 and 48%. I cannot post a chart but the similarity starts in Feb 1997running to July 1998. which corresponds to the period to Feb 23-26th 2007. On an aside note it appears that the $/Yen cross appear to be completing a 12 year consolidation pattern and breaking upwards.
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#4 Caduceus

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Posted 19 February 2007 - 03:06 PM

I cannot post a chart but the similarity starts in Feb 1997running to July 1998. which corresponds to the period to Feb 23-26th 2007.


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#5 Russ

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Posted 19 February 2007 - 03:06 PM

Could Iran's refusal to suspend Uranium Enrichment by the UN deadline of Feb.21 be a catalyst in the coming trouble?

I wil post more on this later, but this date is a pi date and also corresponds to a top in the 8.5 year cycle, which has been quite reliable. We appear to be following the 1997 top pattern, in terms of timing.

Also the summation indices are alerting us to a decline coming (near to top of range).


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#6 fib_1618

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Posted 19 February 2007 - 03:54 PM

I cannot post a chart but the similarity starts in Feb 1997 running to July 1998. which corresponds to the period to Feb 23-26th 2007.

Sorry, I'm having a problem understanding this. How can a 18 month window between 2/97 - 7/98 correspond to a current 3 day period? Is this 3 day period the beginning of this same window, the close of the window, or the mid points between this total window date???

I would also like to point out that picking any kind of cycle TOP is very much a frustrating proposition. What I have found over the years is that the reliability of any cycle is in it's nesting as tops can and do diffuse (like the example you've given) all depending on the dynamics of the market at that time.

I also took a moment and tried my best to come up with a 8 1/2 year cycle bottom (since 1980) and really had a hard time finding consistency to this idea - though I did find a 8 year cycle (1982, 1990, 1998) - but this conforms well with that of the simple 4 year lows of the last 40 years or so.

Hopefully you can post a chart or link to provide better clarity of what I may be missing.

Could Iran's refusal to suspend Uranium Enrichment by the UN deadline of Feb.21 be a catalyst in the coming trouble?

Was it last August when another such deadline had passed?

Fib

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#7 stocks

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Posted 19 February 2007 - 04:42 PM

Markets are now approaching a dangerous time zone. The upside stop levels for the SPX are 1468, exceeding this would open up 1550 SPX, as part of a fifth wave advance of a slightly bigger diagonal formnig.

The 8.6 year cycle is pretty good but not 100%, and over the past 35 years its arrival has been the presursor to declines of between 20 and 48%.

I cannot post a chart but the similarity starts in Feb 1997running to July 1998. which corresponds to the period to Feb 23-26th 2007.

On an aside note it appears that the $/Yen cross appear to be completing a 12 year consolidation pattern and breaking upwards.


Here's the chart:

http://www.contrahou...n_armstron.html
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#8 Russ

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Posted 19 February 2007 - 04:52 PM

This cycle does not alway apply to just dow/spx, for example in 1999 it showed the low in gold and in 1989 it showed the high in the Nikkei.
Posted Image
http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.png

http://princetonecon...s.blogspot.com/

Edited by Russ, 19 February 2007 - 04:55 PM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#9 fib_1618

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Posted 19 February 2007 - 06:31 PM

OK, thanks for the links.

Now, has anyone taken the time and tried to overlay these same cyclical tops and bottoms over the last 27 years to see if this cycle analysis is something of merit or one of trying to fit an economic theory??

Here's is a longer term chart of the SPX along with the NYSE advance/decline line(s) during this same time period for your review. I played with the data a bit, and it would seem to me that this cycle would fit well with the bear market period between 1998 and 2002, but it would be stretching the point if you tried to fit this analysis prior to this same time period.

Play with it and tell me what you think.

Fib

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Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#10 Russ

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Posted 19 February 2007 - 06:43 PM

You can save yourself the trouble, the model has been found to have billions to one statistical significance. You need to read my blog before you comment.

OK, thanks for the links.

Now, has anyone taken the time and tried to overlay these same cyclical tops and bottoms over the last 27 years to see if this cycle analysis is something of merit or one of trying to fit an economic theory??

Here's is a longer term chart of the SPX along with the NYSE advance/decline line(s) during this same time period for your review. I played with the data a bit, and it would seem to me that this cycle would fit well with the bear market period between 1998 and 2002, but it would be stretching the point if you tried to fit this analysis prior to this same time period.

Play with it and tell me what you think.

Fib

Posted Image


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/