Housing Sector entering the second leg of the secular bear
#1
Posted 19 February 2007 - 03:23 PM
#2
Posted 19 February 2007 - 04:57 PM
correction in the economy from it's growth top in early 2006.
http://www.investorh...f...e&msgid=378
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#3
Posted 19 February 2007 - 05:44 PM
Also, here's a graph forecasting housing's impact on the rest of the economy from an outfit that's not generally thought of as being a member of the doom-and-gloom permabear club:
Edited by jawndissedi, 19 February 2007 - 05:49 PM.
#4
Posted 19 February 2007 - 06:22 PM
good old fashioned correction will be the China stock market.
The J6P Chinese is now borrowing on credit cards to buy stocks
which are going hyperbolic. It is the year of golden pig!!
http://www.safehaven...rticle-6945.htm
Edited by pdx5, 19 February 2007 - 06:27 PM.
#5
Posted 19 February 2007 - 07:15 PM
http://www.zimbio.co...Veyron Crashing
#6
Posted 19 February 2007 - 07:49 PM
His foundation unloads home builder, energy shares
The overall value of the holdings dropped about 4% to $5.9 billion
KB Home, Centex Corp., Pulte Homes Inc., Lennar Corp., Beazer Homes USA Inc., Ryland Group Inc., and WCI Communities Inc. were dropped from the list of holdings.
Buy and Hold my (_l_)....
What was that a 3 month hold? They disclosed these holdings in November...
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#7
Posted 19 February 2007 - 08:59 PM
If the current down trend in housing starts continues CTX will be the first national builder to go bankrupt. They need to build around 6600 houses per quarter just to break even. Right now they are losing net $ 37.163 per house. Within the next 2Q they will be in breach of loan covenants. 5 Billion dollars in land owned outright (104,186 lots depreciating fast) is killing them. I wonder what their bankable equity in the land is. They can’t afford to lose $ 228 million per Q for too long.
#8
Posted 19 February 2007 - 11:01 PM
There are some sharp-eyed folks looking really hard at some of these warthogs. I saw this over on Russ Winter's blog:
If the current down trend in housing starts continues CTX will be the first national builder to go bankrupt. They need to build around 6600 houses per quarter just to break even. Right now they are losing net $ 37.163 per house. Within the next 2Q they will be in breach of loan covenants. 5 Billion dollars in land owned outright (104,186 lots depreciating fast) is killing them. I wonder what their bankable equity in the land is. They can’t afford to lose $ 228 million per Q for too long.
CTX does have very ugly things on its long term chart and it was one of the HGX components that convinced me about what I said.
#9
Posted 20 February 2007 - 06:08 AM
CTX does have very ugly things on its long term chart and it was one of the HGX components that convinced me about what I said.
Which other ones?
My favorites are CTX, MTH and BZH. Bizarre Homes has the worst performing stock.
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
#10
Posted 20 February 2007 - 08:47 AM