Lots of Resilient Bearishness
#1
Posted 20 February 2007 - 09:22 AM
30% bullish vs. 40% last week
45% bearish vs. 38% last week
LowRisk reported 30% Bullish vs. 40% Bullish last week, and 45% Bearish vs. 38% Bearish the previous week. This is a big shift back to a fair amount of Bearishness. This was in a market that was just a spit away from new highs and that was only down a tad on Friday. This implies that less sophisticated traders are back to being Bearish and that's Bullish (though it won't preclude a little bit of selling)
Our polls here, too are showing some stubborn Bearishness. Now, the issue with that is that our site is well populated with some pretty good and mighty nimble traders, but I don't like to get too Bearish when we've got so many Beared up on the week.
I think we have to be open to higher prices, but unlike some, I'll also say that the sentiment set up is far more supportive of lower prices (shorter-term) than many seem to think.
Do we have aset up for the Bull Market top? Nope. Not even close. The best uber-Bears can hope for from this data is a top this summer. That said, there are enough sentiment segments leaning long to support a nasty little correction, and that can happen at any time, IF we can get an excuse and enough weakness to trigger some stops.
I say, be agnostic here and look both ways. There are a number of hooks out there that you can get hung up on and lose money with.
Mark
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
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#2
Posted 20 February 2007 - 09:49 AM
Following my call for a top last week, I was a bit concerned Friday then VIX put in that bearish engulfing candle and VXN was riding the lower BB down. They both reversed today.
So maybe a test of support areas and then we will see what "they" want to do to us.
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
#3
Posted 20 February 2007 - 10:06 AM
#4
Posted 20 February 2007 - 10:10 AM
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
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#5
Posted 20 February 2007 - 10:19 AM
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#6
Posted 20 February 2007 - 10:20 AM
Hey, I'm open to a sell off, and have been. See the Best Fade post. But the sentiment is iffy in either direction.
The top for the Bull, however, is some way off. Best we can hope for is a correction.
Mark
I know you have been cautious for the last few trading days and expecting some selling.
Especially after we saw extreme dip buying mentality despite two sharp declines. And I couldn't agree more on this because I saw it in the odd lot data myself.
Edited by xD&Cox, 20 February 2007 - 10:21 AM.
#7
Posted 20 February 2007 - 10:29 AM
Now here for example is where the rubber meets the road on dynamic volume analysis... You get an excellent read intraday now on Nasdaq. Nasdaq broke the hourly chart on volume in the first hour (still not even complete). Now you go to the daily. If Nasdaq cannot break the 2475 and 2468 swings on STRONG volume then it's a stealth sign of Strength... CLARITY, not CONFUSION. Your next data point is the next poll...
http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#8
Posted 20 February 2007 - 10:54 AM
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
Get a free trial here:
http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
You can now follow me on twitter
#9
Posted 20 February 2007 - 11:12 AM
#10
Posted 20 February 2007 - 11:22 AM
Edited by SemiBizz, 20 February 2007 - 11:26 AM.
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics