22 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

LowRisk reports
30% bullish vs. 40% last week
45% bearish vs. 38% last week

LowRisk reported 30% Bullish vs. 40% Bullish last week, and 45% Bearish vs. 38% Bearish the previous week. This is a big shift back to a fair amount of Bearishness. This was in a market that was just a spit away from new highs and that was only down a tad on Friday. This implies that less sophisticated traders are back to being Bearish and that's Bullish (though it won't preclude a little bit of selling)


Our polls here, too are showing some stubborn Bearishness. Now, the issue with that is that our site is well populated with some pretty good and mighty nimble traders, but I don't like to get too Bearish when we've got so many Beared up on the week.



I think we have to be open to higher prices, but unlike some, I'll also say that the sentiment set up is far more supportive of lower prices (shorter-term) than many seem to think.



Do we have aset up for the Bull Market top? Nope. Not even close. The best uber-Bears can hope for from this data is a top this summer. That said, there are enough sentiment segments leaning long to support a nasty little correction, and that can happen at any time, IF we can get an excuse and enough weakness to trigger some stops.



I say, be agnostic here and look both ways. There are a number of hooks out there that you can get hung up on and lose money with.



Mark

[Rogerdodger]

So far today VIX & VXN are supportive of weakness.

Following my call for a top last week, I was a bit concerned Friday then VIX put in that bearish engulfing candle and VXN was riding the lower BB down. They both reversed today.

So maybe a test of support areas and then we will see what "they" want to do to us.

[A-ha]

You both are forgetting something. I see a post below saying that my holy grail bulled up again. That means even you have %99 bearishness in the most stupid money segments, the market craters, at least for a short period of time. That is the only guaranteed thing I have ever seen working %100 of the time regardless other conditions. He even beats Fed. So folks , please don't waste your valuable time with lengthly analysis.

[OEXCHAOS]

Hey, I'm open to a sell off, and have been. See the Best Fade post. But the sentiment is iffy in either direction. The top for the Bull, however, is some way off. Best we can hope for is a correction. Mark

[SemiBizz]

Come on with this hedging... What does the sentiment SAY? Sounds to me like it's bullish. It sounds to me like you got a signal and you don't trust it...

[A-ha]

Hey, I'm open to a sell off, and have been. See the Best Fade post. But the sentiment is iffy in either direction.

The top for the Bull, however, is some way off. Best we can hope for is a correction.

Mark

I know you have been cautious for the last few trading days and expecting some selling.
Especially after we saw extreme dip buying mentality despite two sharp declines. And I couldn't agree more on this because I saw it in the odd lot data myself.

Edited by xD&Cox, 20 February 2007 - 10:21 AM.

[SemiBizz]

You are lost if you cannot trust your own trading methodology and trading signals...



Now here for example is where the rubber meets the road on dynamic volume analysis... You get an excellent read intraday now on Nasdaq. Nasdaq broke the hourly chart on volume in the first hour (still not even complete). Now you go to the daily. If Nasdaq cannot break the 2475 and 2468 swings on STRONG volume then it's a stealth sign of Strength... CLARITY, not CONFUSION. Your next data point is the next poll...



http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

[OEXCHAOS]

[Sigh] Perhaps I wasn't clear. If we turn down and get some breadth support, you can short it because we have enough Bullish sentiment to support a decline. Simple. If you're a longer-term or larger degree trader who is only worried about a Bear market, ignore it. Note that the current situation for Shorter-term-to-Intermediate-term traders is greatly changed from where it was all summer and fall. Back then, downturns were to be ignored, the SENTIMENT was so supportive of higher prices. So, those who were worred about fundamentals or volume or whatever missed a huge rally or worse shorted it and lost money. Now, however, we've got a totally different sentiment set up. It's not signalling a major top, but it is suggestive of ample support for a decline. You can take your sell signals now. Of course, ANY top picking based upon Sentiment had better have some price and/or volume and/or breadth confirmation component to it. Right now, we don't have enough of any of the latter to get me to short this for anything other than a scalp. Thus, I'm looking both ways. This could change by the close today, of course. Mark

[Net]

The one persistent question in my mind about sentiment, which perhaps is a bit of a paradox (for lack of a better word), is that it seems to me the increasingly vast and rapid dissemination of technical analysis will result in more and more participants seeing the same signals and believing them. This is a byproduct of the internet becoming a primary source of information more and more, disseminating the greatest wealth of information to the largest number of participants than ever before, and doing it exceedingly fast. This helps me understand the persistent bearishness, because included in this current bull run for all to see is the length (amount of time) and strength (resistance to corrections) of the trend, and the disseminated general knowledge backed by technical analysis showing nothing lasts forever, and showing we're in the window now (so to speak) for some sort of good correction. So, it seems that every time the rally extends to new highs and and is up against projected resistances, trend lines, etc., yet continuing longer into the move without a meaningful correction, bearishness will continue to increase further and further as a deep correction appears more and more eminent, for which this bearish sentiment will then signal the market should continue to push forward bringing in the dip buyers, perpetually delaying a top.... endlessly. Seems to me a bit of a vicious cycle or paradox... No predictions here; just thinking out loud.

[SemiBizz]

We have enough volume now to break the high on Nasdaq. If that doesn't happen then we're looking at a stealth sign of weakness. If you read my previous posts, I said there was 2 outcomes available here, and one of them is to resume FAST UPTREND. That could be what is happening, but if we can't break the high it's probably NOT. There you go, quantified. Break 2508 good to go. This doesn't take a PhD to understand. The sign of weakness on the hourly came on the break on volume today, but did not break on 30 min. 3 min chart turned up starting around 10:40 on 5 green candles. Today we have 4 green candles on the Nasdaq daily. If we break the high on volume or just close up that daily chart is pointing UP at the end of the day. Clarity. But if you're not sure then you can wait til tonite's poll and then decide... (but Nasdaq could be up 30 pts from here by the end of the day).

Edited by SemiBizz, 20 February 2007 - 11:26 AM.