24 replies to this topic

[relax]

clearly tor you have not examined it properly and clearly you are asking for perfection, which is typical for people who are closed-minded about new ideas funny how people do not look for the same perfection when using other more recognized methods armstrong cycle is a great cycle - very accurate

[Russ]

Relax: It is a common mistake, people think that the Economic Confidence Model's turning points will always mean that the market will make its final top because that is what the chart looks like. You have to look at what is the latest speculative flavour of the day and on this part of the cycle it has clearly been housing, who benifits from a housing frenzy...the banks...and as I said the bank index peaked right on the high point of the cycle and dropped like a rock. The broader market is a different animal and capital will keep shifting into other things before the final top...probably in early 2009. Gee if Armstrong was out of prison I could be working in his public relations dept.

Edited by Russ, 11 November 2007 - 03:02 PM.

[relax]

just leave it russ don't know what his problem his - waste of your time

[jack]

A Canadian perspective on Martin Armstrong calling FEB 07 top
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX:$CDW&p=W&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&i=p27161554989&a=122105232&r=9744.jpg

[Russ]

That's a beauty Jack.

[pabletto]

no problem for me

[Sentient Being]

All good market timers go to Prison.

[colion]

Relax:

It is a common mistake, people think that the Economic Confidence Model's turning points will always mean that the market will make its final top because that is what the chart looks like. You have to look at what is the latest speculative flavour of the day and on this part of the cycle it has clearly been housing, who benifits from a housing frenzy...the banks...and as I said the bank index peaked right on the high point of the cycle and dropped like a rock. The broader market is a different animal and capital will keep shifting into other things before the final top...probably in early 2009. Gee if Armstrong was out of prison I could be working in his public relations dept.

Right and therefore of limited value to traders.

[Russ]

Relax:

It is a common mistake, people think that the Economic Confidence Model's turning points will always mean that the market will make its final top because that is what the chart looks like. You have to look at what is the latest speculative flavour of the day and on this part of the cycle it has clearly been housing, who benifits from a housing frenzy...the banks...and as I said the bank index peaked right on the high point of the cycle and dropped like a rock. The broader market is a different animal and capital will keep shifting into other things before the final top...probably in early 2009. Gee if Armstrong was out of prison I could be working in his public relations dept.

Right and therefore of limited value to traders.

If you don't understand how the model works then that would be true.

[colion]

Relax:

It is a common mistake, people think that the Economic Confidence Model's turning points will always mean that the market will make its final top because that is what the chart looks like. You have to look at what is the latest speculative flavour of the day and on this part of the cycle it has clearly been housing, who benifits from a housing frenzy...the banks...and as I said the bank index peaked right on the high point of the cycle and dropped like a rock. The broader market is a different animal and capital will keep shifting into other things before the final top...probably in early 2009. Gee if Armstrong was out of prison I could be working in his public relations dept.

Right and therefore of limited value to traders.

If you don't understand how the model works then that would be true.

Can't hide behind that type of dodge. If a TA oriented trader/investor has to subjectively "look at what is the latest speculative flavour of the day" then it is by definition of little value. If you disagree, then your understanding of TA is quite different from mine and is of little value to my way of approaching markets. But if it helps you trade then go with it.



In the latest case, you use a bunch of subjective analysis to come up with anticipation of banks and housing topping (not unlike what any decent TA analysis produced). What else did the subjective Armstrong analysis anticipate would be topping or bottoming? Only banks and housing? Surely one does not think in a highly interconnected economy that bank and housing performance is not reflected elsewhere or that their performance does not reflect perfomance in other sectorss. A simple correlation analysis will show that this is not the case. If all Armstrong's analysis can do in an economy such as ours is ask the user to use a subjective, fundamental type of analysis to anticipate topping of banks it is of limited value and is in the area of academic exercises played by economists. This, of course, is why Armstrong-Brenner type charts are at most interesting background for TAers.



You say that if one does not understand the model then it is of little value to traders/investors. Let's accept that and assume that nobody but you knows how to use Armstrong's model. We can all then play a little game to see how useful Armstrong is to traders/investors. There is a trough coming up in a few months. As the Armstrong expert, tell us what sectors will top or bottom at that time. If you feel that it is too early for a "guess" when would be a good time? At that time, we can all lay your Armstrong projections against a variety of TA projections and then watch how things play out. If you prove the superiority of Armstrong's analysis you will certainly catch his eye and undoubtedly be appointed to head up Armstrong & Co.'s PR department "when" he gets out of jail. Deal?