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#21 Sentient Being

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Posted 12 November 2007 - 05:13 AM

thank God they don't put bad traders in prison. I'm not cut out for prison life.
In the end we retain from our studies only that which we practically apply.

~ Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe ~

#22 Russ

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Posted 12 November 2007 - 09:13 AM

Relax:

It is a common mistake, people think that the Economic Confidence Model's turning points will always mean that the market will make its final top because that is what the chart looks like. You have to look at what is the latest speculative flavour of the day and on this part of the cycle it has clearly been housing, who benifits from a housing frenzy...the banks...and as I said the bank index peaked right on the high point of the cycle and dropped like a rock. The broader market is a different animal and capital will keep shifting into other things before the final top...probably in early 2009. Gee if Armstrong was out of prison I could be working in his public relations dept. :lol:





Right and therefore of limited value to traders.


If you don't understand how the model works then that would be true.





Can't hide behind that type of dodge. If a TA oriented trader/investor has to subjectively "look at what is the latest speculative flavour of the day" then it is by definition of little value. If you disagree, then your understanding of TA is quite different from mine and is of little value to my way of approaching markets. But if it helps you trade then go with it.



In the latest case, you use a bunch of subjective analysis to come up with anticipation of banks and housing topping (not unlike what any decent TA analysis produced). What else did the subjective Armstrong analysis anticipate would be topping or bottoming? Only banks and housing? Surely one does not think in a highly interconnected economy that bank and housing performance is not reflected elsewhere or that their performance does not reflect perfomance in other sectorss. A simple correlation analysis will show that this is not the case. If all Armstrong's analysis can do in an economy such as ours is ask the user to use a subjective, fundamental type of analysis to anticipate topping of banks it is of limited value and is in the area of academic exercises played by economists. This, of course, is why Armstrong-Brenner type charts are at most interesting background for TAers.



You say that if one does not understand the model then it is of little value to traders/investors. Let's accept that and assume that nobody but you knows how to use Armstrong's model. We can all then play a little game to see how useful Armstrong is to traders/investors. There is a trough coming up in a few months. As the Armstrong expert, tell us what sectors will top or bottom at that time. If you feel that it is too early for a "guess" when would be a good time? At that time, we can all lay your Armstrong projections against a variety of TA projections and then watch how things play out. If you prove the superiority of Armstrong's analysis you will certainly catch his eye and undoubtedly be appointed to head up Armstrong & Co.'s PR department "when" he gets out of jail. Deal?


The model has statistical accuracy into the billions to one odds. The model showed the low in the markets in 2002 very well. The fact that the banks peaked right on the main 8.6 cycle in early 2007 shows that whatever recovery we get in 2008 will be limited.

Housing and banking sectors were the main focus of capital in the US since 2002 and they have seen serious technical breakdowns,(this is what must be paid attention to: what is the main focus of capital during the current 8.6 year cycle, it was obviously housing and banking for the US) so the US economy and markets have likely seen their peaks internally just as they had in 1998.55 , they are likely to go up into April 2009 based on the model and bottom in spring 2011.

Since you have such strong opinions and brag about your technical prowess I would like to hear your brilliant analysis as to what is coming.

Edited by Russ, 12 November 2007 - 09:16 AM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#23 colion

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Posted 12 November 2007 - 09:37 AM

Relax:

It is a common mistake, people think that the Economic Confidence Model's turning points will always mean that the market will make its final top because that is what the chart looks like. You have to look at what is the latest speculative flavour of the day and on this part of the cycle it has clearly been housing, who benifits from a housing frenzy...the banks...and as I said the bank index peaked right on the high point of the cycle and dropped like a rock. The broader market is a different animal and capital will keep shifting into other things before the final top...probably in early 2009. Gee if Armstrong was out of prison I could be working in his public relations dept. :lol:





Right and therefore of limited value to traders.


If you don't understand how the model works then that would be true.





Can't hide behind that type of dodge. If a TA oriented trader/investor has to subjectively "look at what is the latest speculative flavour of the day" then it is by definition of little value. If you disagree, then your understanding of TA is quite different from mine and is of little value to my way of approaching markets. But if it helps you trade then go with it.



In the latest case, you use a bunch of subjective analysis to come up with anticipation of banks and housing topping (not unlike what any decent TA analysis produced). What else did the subjective Armstrong analysis anticipate would be topping or bottoming? Only banks and housing? Surely one does not think in a highly interconnected economy that bank and housing performance is not reflected elsewhere or that their performance does not reflect perfomance in other sectorss. A simple correlation analysis will show that this is not the case. If all Armstrong's analysis can do in an economy such as ours is ask the user to use a subjective, fundamental type of analysis to anticipate topping of banks it is of limited value and is in the area of academic exercises played by economists. This, of course, is why Armstrong-Brenner type charts are at most interesting background for TAers.



You say that if one does not understand the model then it is of little value to traders/investors. Let's accept that and assume that nobody but you knows how to use Armstrong's model. We can all then play a little game to see how useful Armstrong is to traders/investors. There is a trough coming up in a few months. As the Armstrong expert, tell us what sectors will top or bottom at that time. If you feel that it is too early for a "guess" when would be a good time? At that time, we can all lay your Armstrong projections against a variety of TA projections and then watch how things play out. If you prove the superiority of Armstrong's analysis you will certainly catch his eye and undoubtedly be appointed to head up Armstrong & Co.'s PR department "when" he gets out of jail. Deal?


The model has statistical accuracy into the billions to one odds. The model showed the low in the markets in 2002 very well. The fact that the banks peaked right on the main 8.6 cycle in early 2007 shows that whatever recovery we get in 2008 will be limited.

Housing and banking sectors were the main focus of capital in the US since 2002 and they have seen serious technical breakdowns,(this is what must be paid attention to: what is the main focus of capital during the current 8.6 year cycle, it was obviously housing and banking for the US) so the US economy and markets have likely seen their peaks internally just as they had in 1998.55 , they are likely to go up into April 2009 based on the model and bottom in spring 2011.

Since you have such strong opinions and brag about your technical prowess I would like to hear your brilliant analysis as to what is coming.





Wrong. Unlike Armstrong types I do not have any special technical prowess and forecasting abilities. As an Armstrong expert you obviously do but cannot answer the questions posed, cannot demonstrate that Armstrong is better then standard TA, and are not willing to go head-to-head with TA. Not a convincing argument for traders/investors to jump ship and embrace Armstrong. Please keep us up to speed when it becomes clear which sectors will bottom or top at the next trough early next year. That could be a valuable contribution to this forum no matter how you come up with the result.

#24 Russ

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Posted 12 November 2007 - 01:12 PM

Wrong. Unlike Armstrong types I do not have any special technical prowess and forecasting abilities. As an Armstrong expert you obviously do but cannot answer the questions posed, cannot demonstrate that Armstrong is better then standard TA, and are not willing to go head-to-head with TA. Not a convincing argument for traders/investors to jump ship and embrace Armstrong. Please keep us up to speed when it becomes clear which sectors will bottom or top at the next trough early next year. That could be a valuable contribution to this forum no matter how you come up with the result.



I did not say it would bottom early next year, you are not paying attention. I said the market is likely to peak in early 2009 and then bottom in spring of 2011.

I don't like your attitude, I don't have to post anything especially to person like you....go screw yourself.
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#25 colion

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Posted 12 November 2007 - 01:54 PM

I did not say it would bottom early next year, you are not paying attention. I said the market is likely to peak in early 2009 and then bottom in spring of 2011.





Oh, Russ, but I do pay attention. Just going by the Armstrong chart that you were kind enough to post above that shows a trough in early 2008. Surely we are not suppose to be selective but should take all tid-bits of wisdom from the master without modification. LOL.