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Gold, $$$$, HUI & Moon shots - charts


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#1 Mike

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Posted 09 October 2003 - 05:18 PM

10/9 These 7 charts are updated, give them time to finish loading; for those with dialup, you may want to grab a cup of coffee. The prices will update on a daily basis in case anyone wants to check back. And remember, if anything seems askew, the indicators sometimes shift during the uploading process.

GOLD
10/9 Gold made it to 394.8. The chance that this was the blowoff is pretty good.
9/19 This morning (fri.) the Dec. gold contract is seeing some very heavy buying. The blow off to $400 may be starting. The dollar has broken support around 96 and is close to the next support level at 95 (see the chart below).
8/5 I'm still concerned about that gap at 330, there are no lower gaps that I can find - they've all been filled. Another drop below the 40 wk. moving average (200 day) could happen, but a trip all the way to that gap would be wrenching.
http://stockcharts.c...14805753,Y].GIF


HUI
10/9 Gold shares may have also seen their peak for a while. The current consolidation between 190 & 200 may be just the first leg down. A deeper retracement to the rising trendline and breakout point at 155 would be OK by me.
9/19 The breakout held and any attempt at a retest was cut short - enthusiasm reigns. This shows that in a bull market, waiting for a retest to add to shares can be unsuccessful. You gotta be a believer.
8/5 Breakout. Now we can look for a trip back to the breakout point which looks to be around 155. Of course this doesn't have to happen, but look at the GOLD chart above, every breakout not only revisited the horizontal breakout level, but dipped below it. Also look at the RSI, a trip back to at least the 50 level would seem appropriate.
http://stockcharts.c...J1400783,Y].GIF


XAU & gaps
10/9 Got one (actually a couple of cents shy, but who's counting?).
9/19 Gaps don't have to be filled, but it seems to me that they are about 70% of the time - particularly over the course of several months.
8/5 There's a handful of gaps that appeared during this latest rally. Check the other gaps and you'll see they're all filled. Filling that gap at 75 will be stressful, but let's get it over with. Does anyone have an idea why these gaps don't exist on the HUI?
http://stockcharts.c...12666985,Y].GIF

GoldHeart - More charts & commentary
10/9 The long term wave is turing to join the mid term. This could be a heavy weight on gold shares.
9/19 When looking at the GoldHeart indicator, remember that overbought is at the bottom. We've clearly moved from the caution to the danger zone.
8/5 It looks like 50 was the magic number afterall.
7/11 The GoldHeart midterm indicator has been having a rough time, but it keeps struggling higher. I'll probably start adding to existing holdings when it climbs to around 50-60. I fear this thing could reverse early and not look back.
Posted Image


Dollar
10/9 Thursday, the $$ put in a bullish engulfing candlestick, possibly signalling a reversal.
9/19 Now there's a failed retest of horizontal support. And for the past few days the $$ has been testing support at 96, and now appears to be moving to support at 95. A close below 95 should help send gold flying. We'll then be looking at 90.
8/5 The declining trendline and horizontal resistance proved too much for the buck. A bounce off the upcoming 50 dma and horizontal support at 95 is possible, but it doesn't look good. A close below 95 would suggest a strong gold rally.
http://stockcharts.c...J7558308,Y].GIF


Monthly chart
http://stockcharts.c...J1742830,Y].GIF

And for you moonbeams... :rolleyes:
http://stockcharts.c...J1950383,Y].GIF :rolleyes:

#2 2cents

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Posted 09 October 2003 - 05:31 PM

Mike
Could you have a look at this for me. I know nothing about gold but have had huge holdings for the last year.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=hmy,uu[d,a]dacayyay[dc][pb50!b200!d20,2!b21!f][vc60][iut!ub14!la12,26,9!lp14,3,3!lc20].gif
My opinion isn't worth the HTML it's written on

#3 Mike

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Posted 09 October 2003 - 09:20 PM

I own it as a core holding; it looks like another buy at 10. You have to realize that I think the odds favor a pullback in the indexes before another thrust higher. But if the dollar takes off to the upside, there could be a multi-month correction in all gold stocks - and a great buying opportunity. Here's a weekly chart.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=HMY,uu[h,a]wcclyiay[df][pd20,2!b40!i!f][vc60][iub10!lp14,3,3!la12,26,9][J7685514,Y].gif

#4 Islander

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Posted 09 October 2003 - 09:41 PM

Mike Why do you assume that the dollar and gold are inversely related for anything but the short run? The pop up in gold today is just noise by speculators I suspect. The cycle is persuasive evidence (I think) that gold moves independently of currencies in it primary variations. True, currencies can affect gold, but only relation to the primary variations. I am not a gold bug, but I want to put gold into my strategy and first I need a theory of what drives gold. If it is a cycle I am able to use it, if it is just speculation I can not. Great Charts. Islander

#5 Mike

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Posted 10 October 2003 - 08:52 AM

Islander,

This linked article makes an interesting read.

Steve Saville article on gold & dollar

#6 Mike

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Posted 21 October 2003 - 01:31 PM

This message is a test to check on a possible board posting error. That's it!