Based on my own unpublished method, these are the top 2 probability time-price projections I have. To briefly explain their derivation ( same method I used to call bull market top early Nov 2007 and swing wave later nov 13, when it works it works well, of course sometimes it doesn't...no holy grail exists)-
1. I apply standard ewave
2. I apply my own extended fractal rules which include price/time rules to reduce the 'positive set' i.e. to reject a large number of possible alternate counts that plague ewave.
3. I look for 'short-term memory fractals' - repeating fractals are different orders of magnitudes, think of a small head and shoulder on the right shoulder of a larger H&S, that's the same idea.
4. I use 1-3 to project forward.
You cannot generate a projection unless 1-3 are present, in ewave terms, you need at least wave 1 to be clear. For example this projection could only be developed in april, not before.
As said on the chart, I primarily use these projections to judge risk/reward - how else can ya' do it without a judgement of possible price movement size?? I also generate these patterns all the way down to 1minute when I'm day-trading, and looking for 'Self-agreement or disagreement'.
Sorry if it sounds WAY more complicated than it is - but I don't want to really say how it works, because its the best tool I have particularly on the day-swing trade stuff.
These patterns have worked beautifully for me this year, EXCEPT for that short-ban rally, since that way a 'unatural' price event, but price has since gotten' back on the projected path.
The chart is probably a too big to show here, so easier to use the links below.
* as I say, if the price deviates than I can no-longer use the projection, there's no 'alternative'.
http://img374.images...oct1projjm4.gif
Projection Chart
Mark.
Edited by entropy, 05 October 2008 - 10:40 PM.
