Jump to content



Photo

McClellan


  • This topic is locked This topic is locked
128 replies to this topic

#81 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 5,120 posts

Posted 28 August 2009 - 03:07 PM

Barring a sudden surge to the upside into the close, both the NYSI and the NASI will be down, giving solid sell signals today.

Good trading to everyone. :)


Since the 8/20 NASI buy signal, the basket of long leveraged ETFs -- SSO, QLD, UWM, -- was up 4 percent. On the 8/21 NYSI buy signal, the basket was up only .64 percent.

Switching to the basket of short leveraged ETFs -- SDS, QID, TWM.

Good trading to everyone. :)

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#82 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 5,120 posts

Posted 08 September 2009 - 02:57 PM

My, my, it appears the NYSI and NASI will be up unless there is a sell-off into the close, giving a buy signal and continuing the whipsaws that have gone on now for 25 days or so. Difficult market and it appears it does not want to give the bears anything. More later. Good trading to everyone. :)

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#83 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 5,120 posts

Posted 09 September 2009 - 01:04 PM

Probably should make a comment on stops and yesterday's buy signal on NYSI/NASI.

On the buy signal, the basket of short leveraged ETFs -- SDS, QID, TWM -- finished the short trade dead flat (negative .02 percent to be exact), but during NYSI/NASI sell that basket was up more than 7 percent when I posted this on Fearless Forecasters.

BIG MAC ATTACK

The point is when the profits are up that much that quickly, it might be wise to trail the stop -- say, lock in a five percent profit or so.

As usual, the long leveraged ETFs -- SSO, QLD, UWM -- are now in play (and up quite nicely today).

One other comment: once again the market's tone is obvious -- it does not sell off readily when it's overbought and it rallies like mad nearly the second it's oversold. That may not continue in this seasonally negative period (September/October) but for now it is was it is.

Good trading to everyone. :)

http://stockcharts.c...14&are=3500.png

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#84 dowdeva

dowdeva

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 525 posts

Posted 11 September 2009 - 10:16 AM

I'm not happy with some of the bearish divergences I'm seeing in NYMO and NYSI. Your CCI has one up there, too. Laundry has a 'mystery T' ending soon here.

#85 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 5,120 posts

Posted 15 September 2009 - 12:38 PM

I'm not happy with some of the bearish divergences I'm seeing in NYMO and NYSI. Your CCI has one up there, too.

Laundry has a 'mystery T' ending soon here.

Yes, this is worrisome, and, yes, overbought on the CCI. But then this is mostly swing trading.

Posted this on Fearless Forecaster a little bit ago:

Leveraged long ETF basket -- SSO, QLD, UWM -- up 6.66 percent (at the moment) on NYSI upturn 5 days ago. Getting rather heady. Setting stops to lock in 5 percent profits on one-half, breakeven on second half.

Good trading to everyone. :)

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#86 Scott-stock

Scott-stock

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 128 posts

Posted 15 September 2009 - 04:56 PM

Diogenes Do you base your signals on the Traders or Investors method? Thanks Keep up the nice reports!!!

#87 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 5,120 posts

Posted 15 September 2009 - 06:04 PM

Diogenes

Do you base your signals on the Traders or Investors method?
Thanks

Keep up the nice reports!!!


Traders. If the NYSI/NASI is rising that is the context to be long whatever one is trading -- ETFs, stocks, options, futures -- and if falling, short or flat. Context is everything.

If I was trading billions in some massive mutual or hedge fund, I might sit tight through a summation index decline as long as no trend lines get violated. Those rising lows on the Summation indexes confirm we are in a very bullish market now with very few signs of any weakness. Once again, context is everything.

Thanks for the post. :)

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#88 apprentice

apprentice

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 42 posts

Posted 19 September 2009 - 04:15 PM

I'm just a novice here, aspiring to become a swing trader. Could any of you guide me in the selection of a good intraday stock screener, as I've been reading that in order to trade effectively as a swing trader I will need to have ready access to some kind of intraday stock screener. I'm not well off enough to be able to pay top dollar for such, but I can affort up to $100 per month. Thank you in advance for your guidance.



RPPVW/SHP


"It is not your duty to complete the work,
but neither may you desist from it."

--Talmud

#89 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 5,120 posts

Posted 20 September 2009 - 03:49 PM

I'm just a novice here, aspiring to become a swing trader.

Could any of you guide me in the selection of a good intraday stock screener, as I've been reading that in order to trade effectively as a swing trader I will need to have ready access to some kind of intraday stock screener.

I'm not well off enough to be able to pay top dollar for such, but I can affort up to $100 per month.

Thank you in advance for your guidance.


Do not waste your money. Not a single dime. No one needs an INTRADAY stock screener. That's like firing a shotgun every day and trying to buy the single shot out of ten thousand that goes the farthest. Ridiculous. And impossible to do.

As a novice, you should first read this (several times, and take special note of item four):

5 SIMPLE THINGS ALL WEALTHY TRADERS DO

Now pick the one thing (ETF, future, stock) you want to trade -- the ONE THING! You can make plenty of money playing the swings on one stock. On one ETF. In swing trading, it's the swing that matters, not the vehicle. Swing traders make money on anything they choose to trade once they have the persistence, the discipline and the experience to trade it well.

There are only four things that can happen on a swing trade (any trade for that matter) -- you have a little winner, you have a little loser, you have a big winner, you have a big loser. You can do nothing about the little winners and little losers (that's the market), but you have to be able to eliminate the big loser or you will not be able to play this game for long, and if you can't play you can't get the big winners.

Once you have your vehicle, you need to study it, study it, study it until to you can eliminate the big loser every time. That means you study price movements, stops, time frames, volume, technical indicators (this is not investing), whatever it takes to get rid of the big loser. Once you've done that, you can think about profits. You need a swing system. There is no intraday stock scanner that can help you with this; in fact, it's more likely it'll have you jumping around grabbing one big loser after another.

If I may offer a couple of shortcuts. As you can tell from this thread I believe the market move matters the most. You don't need a intraday shotgun if you pay attention to what the market is doing. Most stocks (not all, most) move with the market, up and down. I use the McClellan Summation indexes on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq to tell me what the general market is doing. I suggest you pick a stock and play it in the direction of the general market.

For instance what happened fundamentally with Google in that month from early June to early July that took it from 447 to 395? Probably not much fundamentally -- it was just a month. But the market slipped some and the NYSI declined sharply. When the NYSI turned up GOOG shot right back up to 464, and now has gone to 497 on this latest NYSI swing. Or -- holy cow! -- look at LVS! LVS went from 2 to 12, back to 6 and now to 20 since the March market bottom, all in lockstep with the NYSI. On a NYSI time frame, that is swing trading.

Forget the intraday stock scanner and find yourself a single GOOG, or a single LVS or a GDX or a IWM, or a soybean future (if you must), whatever, and study, study, study it until you can trade it well and then trade it. Hope this helps.

Good luck to you, and good trading :)

P.S. Thanks for the question. It's helped me refresh my thinking on what exactly I try to do consistently -- which is, "simplify, simplify, simplify."

http://stockcharts.c...38&are=8016.png

http://stockcharts.c...=0&are=6587.png

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#90 apprentice

apprentice

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 42 posts

Posted 21 September 2009 - 01:31 PM

Thank you so much. I will do as you suggest and will endeavor to bring myself up to speed so that I can contribute something to the group, even if only further more intelligent questions. Rich



RPPVW/SHP


"It is not your duty to complete the work,
but neither may you desist from it."

--Talmud