34 replies to this topic

[SilentOne]

Time for another update. I believe the gold mining indices will be topping out this month. It could carry into June, but I am skeptical. The 56 week cycle should be topping out soon as we have already seen a 7 month rise off the Nov. lows. Note the highlight on the chart below. I see the current rise as very similar cycle-wise to the Dec. 2004 swing top. This market is heading into a 4.5 and 9 year cycle low. A summary of the HUI cycles status is as follows: 7 week is up 14 week is up 28 week is up 56 week is down 27 months is down 4.5 year is down 9.0 year is down So in my interpretation of the HUI cycles, the sum of the cycles underlying the 56 week cycle is down (sigma el is down). I tried an ABX long in April but got frustrated by its weak action. So I am out and not looking at a trade here. The best trade long will come at the 56/60 week cycle low late this year. I do not fear missing a strong rise. The promise of a powerful new bull cycle will be worth the wait. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 12 May 2009 - 10:11 AM.

[dougie]

John: this recent action doenst have you nervous about being sidelined?

[SilentOne]

dougie, Nope. I get more nervous losing money. cheers, john

[SilentOne]

Not much has changed in my HUI cyclic view from last month. I did not think the HUI was going to attack the 400 level. In fact, a monthly closing bar above the HUI 323 level seems to suggest that we may see that level as support coming (on a monthly closing basis) into the next 56 week cycle low late this year or early next. This market has been up 8 months from the Nov. low and should now head into a 4.5 and 9 year low. How it plays out price wise from here is not predictable as far as targets. I guess one thing to do is expect the unexpected. It seems to be the going theme in these markets for some time now. A summary of the current HUI cycles is as follows: 7 week is up 14 week is down 28 week is up 56 week is down 27 months is down 4.5 year is down 9.0 year is down So in my interpretation of the HUI cycles, the sum of the cycles underlying the 56 week cycle is down (sigma el is down). I am short Barrick here from $36.50. A small position taken again this week. First attempt from last week at $37.7 was good and now have reentered for a position trade. My stop is just above the downtrendline shown below. BTW, OBV looks very weak for this stock for some reason. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 10 June 2009 - 01:53 PM.

[SilentOne]

I've covered ABX short for a small gain and will wait to see if we get another chance to retest that trendline. cheers, john

[SilentOne]

The HUI broke below the last 7 week low which was likely at 331 or 350ish . That confirms the bearish trend for the current 14 week cycle. This market will head down into a 14 week low in July, bounce and then slide into the larger cycle lows late this year. The 15 week FLD (red line shown below) targets ~ 300 on the HUI. A summary of the current HUI cycles is as follows: 7 week is down 14 week is down 28 week is up 56 week is down 27 months is down 4.5 year is down 9.0 year is down It will be very difficult to predict short term moves. The best short play will come late this summer most likely. Big buy comes late this year. I'll be away for a couple of weeks. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 17 June 2009 - 09:46 AM.

[Lysis]

John, I've been using the ten day cycle to trade the GDX for the last six months. It's not "Hurst-like," but if you scan the chart even quickly that cycle is fairly dominant. If the pattern continues to hold true, then we're probably in for another rise starting next week. Any break of 39 should confirm it.

[SilentOne]

hi Lysis, The dominant cycles I follow for the HUI are 14 and 56 week cycles. The larger 27 month, cycle is also key and then 4.5 and 9 year. Within the 14 week cycle, we have 35 days as a half cycle, then 18 and then 9 days. I just got back from a European vacation so I have not looked at things much. The current 14 week cycle will bottom in July most likely and lead to a bounce. From there we should head into the next 56 week cycle low, and that should also mark the 4.5 and 9 year lows. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 03 July 2009 - 04:12 PM.

[denmo83]

hi Lysis,

The dominant cycles I follow for the HUI are 14 and 56 week cycles. The larger 27 month, cycle is also key and then 4.5 and 9 year.

Within the 14 week cycle, we have 35 days as a half cycle, then 18 and then 9 days.

I just got back from a European vacation so I have not looked at things much. The current 14 week cycle will bottom in July most likely and lead to a bounce. From there we should head into the next 56 week cycle low, and that should also mark the 4.5 and 9 year lows.

cheers,

john

Are gold and oil out of sync with each other cyclewise? Do commodities in general run together in your opinion?

Just trying to figure how oils will go up and separate from gold? Thanks.

[SilentOne]

Denmo, Each market asset (oil, gold, stocks, bonds) runs on its own cycles and phasings. Gold and silver for example have made large cycle lows at different times, but the dominant 56 week cycle will tend to run in sync across the HUI, gold and silver. It is the larger cycles for these metals that are out of phase. For example gold will make its 9 year low late this year well before silver. Silver is due to make 9 and 18 year cycle lows late 2010 or early 2011. Oil and energy in general work on different cycles altogether from other markets. So at times oil may seem to be moving together with equities for example, and at other times oil may seem to work against stocks. But nothing changes in terms of their cycles. Oil, gold, equities continue to move within respective cycles. Hope that helps. BTW, it is very likely that the HUI and gold have made a 14 week low here this week. They have now entered the last 14 week cycle of the current 56 week cycle I track. So sometime this fall we should see 14 and 56 week cycle lows that also will mark the 4.5 and 9 year Hurst cycle lows. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 14 July 2009 - 10:13 PM.