43 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

I'm not seeing anything to change my view of the posted ST pattern ( see live chart above). But I am looking for a swing low, possibly at the close tomorrow if the scenario works out to plan, which it rarely does...but will post on my blog real time ( in the real time comments section as last few days), here later If I see a swing low. I posted my position short trade entry above in this thread, and will look to cover it if I see a swing low develop, which I havent' yet. Today was the day I was more nervous about, and things look more bearish now for tomorrow than today did - we've worked off the ST oversold condition, and are hanging above the BB lower band which is a price magnet at 850'ish. The MCO for Nasdaq and NYSE are around 0, and need to go under zero to confirm the IT downturn. Ideally a move down to 850 tomorrow, and it that fails, 820 is my where i'd look for swing low back to 890-900. Its interesting how tonight the FF poll has more bulls than mon/tue. I have tried to learn as many trading methods as possible, mainly to understand why other traders are bullish or bearish ( not to use them myself). I can't really see much tonight that is bullish for any method, so its a bit mysterious. It seems there's a mindset of 'its opex week, and we've been going down...so we must go up' ...equity put/call is supportive of that idea, but just about everything else isn't.....so i'm still not seeing a swing low without at least a test of 850-858. Either way, i'm very confident the IT high is in, and will try to sit tight on the position short as I did through most of this bear market, which means sitting out some ball-breaking rallies at times - if one comes and I don't see it, that's the nature of this bear beast, and i'll trust that the IT has turned down to bail me out - got some room back to 910 anyway to breath at the moment, though that could be taken away in about an hour in this market! best, Mark.

Edited by entropy, 13 January 2009 - 11:00 PM.

[EntropyModel]

As per comments in blog today, I took profits at 84.1 on the SPY short I took ( at SPX 920/92 SPY) posted realtime in this thread. I left the remaining 25% position short ( from around 900 spx). I won't be updating this thread further, and expect I will mostly just post on my blog from now on as I explained on this thread somewhere. best, Mark.

Edited by entropy, 14 January 2009 - 11:22 PM.

[opinionated]

mARK, cALL ME STUPID, sOME DO.. LOL.. BUT iM STILL NOT ABLE TO ACESS YOUR BLOG, i READ, AND RE-READ EVEN SAW THE PASSWORD BUT NEVER COULD GET TO THE NEXT STEP.... Just saw cap lock was on, I was gunna fix it but thought it might get my previous point across. Sigh

[EntropyModel]

mARK,

cALL ME STUPID, sOME DO.. LOL.. BUT iM STILL NOT ABLE TO ACESS YOUR BLOG, i READ, AND RE-READ EVEN SAW THE PASSWORD BUT NEVER COULD GET TO THE NEXT STEP....

Just saw cap lock was on, I was gunna fix it but thought it might get my previous point across. Sigh

You don't need a password for any market comments currently, just look under stock market/real time comments category here:

http://entropyhome.w...-time-comments/

Note. The pages that have passwords are not market ones, and are private pages with friends/family etc that no one else needs
to read.

best,
Mark.