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SPX - My Thoughts IT


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#1 mss

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Posted 14 December 2008 - 06:05 PM

:)

;)
Roger,
There are signs that a "base" of some sort is forming. The question at the present is it a "running top" base or a "running bottom" base.
Only time will tell for sure, but IMO it is looking more like a bottom build for a IT run up.
It will have wild swings, "dead cat bounces" but I think the bias will be upward. You might get your 1000PT on the DOW. I'm thinking we get to 1005, test back 920-930 breakout, then we might get "T's" 1050ish. Then the 695 lower leg.
mss


Below are 6 charts that helped lead me to that statement. They will not update and will be removed by 12/20/08, sorry.
Several suggest that internal strength has increased, however money flow, as measured by BOP, indicate it is short lived. Other threads on this board give more and somewhat different analysis.

I will add another live chart to the "SPX - 5 CHARTS TO WATCH" thread on this board.

[attachment=9078:Picture_1.png]

[attachment=9079:Picture_2.png]

[attachment=9084:Picture_3.png]

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[attachment=9082:Picture_5.png]

[attachment=9083:Picture_6.png]

Comments always welcome,
mss

btw: $NYA & $VLE have almost the same patterns in indicators.

Edited by mss, 14 December 2008 - 06:07 PM.

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#2 Islander

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Posted 14 December 2008 - 06:46 PM

very interesting, but also supportive of my work which is based on fibonacci analysis of turn dates and Mote Carlo simulations of market paths. I think SPX a little lower, and of course you completely missed DR. Mchugh's change of government he sees coming. But his work is perhaps more theological than technical. Good and interesting analysis. <_< Best, Islander.

#3 inamosa

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Posted 14 December 2008 - 08:37 PM

It will have wild swings, "dead cat bounces" but I think the bias will be upward. You might get your 1000PT on the DOW. I'm thinking we get to 1005, test back 920-930 breakout, then we might get "T's" 1050ish. Then the 695 lower leg.


Very plausible scenario in light of what I'm seeing.

Few people will have the patience to see this IT bull run all the way through due to the scary whipsaws (I point to the overnight collapse in S&P futures on Thursday night as just one example of what we can expect to continue to see in terms of the market shaking 'weak' longs out).
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months