The point is, the consumer apparently isn't as levered as many fear...
"American consumers are generating prodigious amounts of cash. As Madeline Schnapp reported in today's issue of TrimTabs Personal Income and Consumer Cash Flow Analysis, the twelve-month running total of TrimTabs Savings and Investment Flow reached an all-time high of $696.5 billion in November. This indicator tracks inflows into savings vehicles (bank savings, small-denomination CDs, half of large-denomination CDs, and retail money market funds) as well as all long-term stock, bond, and hybrid mutual funds. "
Too bad your ardently expressed opinions don't square with the data released in the Fed's quarterly flow-of-funds report released earlier this month.
About a month ago, Mark, you devoted a lot of energy to dismissing the importance of fundamentals. Now, you act as though you have definitive fundamental information about what is happening in the economy. If you were just another errant poster on this board, that wouldn't be so problematic. But because you are both a "moderator" and someone who is trying to sell financial advisory services, I find it quite troubling.
Well, personally, I'd be a lot more troubled by the face that a highly respected analytical firm is telling you that the government data--that you seem to be relying on, is dead wrong. Why aren't you disturbed by THAT? Who had more reason to lie to you, the gummint or TrimTabs?
More to the point and in the interest of your wealth, you need to stop worrying about this fundamental stuff, or at least grasp how it's going to most likely play out and how the technicals will lead it. The point in my posting the TT stuff is to show you how unlikely it is that you're going to get a clear read on the economy ahead of the market. NOBODY has definative stuff. And when they do, it's still a moving target. You're trying to understand running water by catching it in a bucket, and even then you think you've got a 1 gal. bucket but in fact it's mislabled.
Will you be right some day? I dunno--probably in some general terms, but the odds strongly favor it not making you any money on a net basis.
More importantly, based upon my theory, this report from TrimTabs creates considerable worry for me, longer term. If this keeps up, it's going to make it into the type of great news that makes market tops.
I'm worried about GOOD news killing the market not the debacle-geddon scenario that you "debacle-gaengers" are fixated on (married to?).
That's my theory, and I've only been at this 25 years--so I could very well be wrong. The take away is that with good technical work, it won't matter. Without it, you're going to either miss some huge opportunities or you're going to lose your behind betting on a crash. THAT I can say with a high degree of expert confidence.
Best,
Mark
The point is, the consumer apparently isn't as levered as many fear...
"American consumers are generating prodigious amounts of cash. As Madeline Schnapp reported in today's issue of TrimTabs Personal Income and Consumer Cash Flow Analysis, the twelve-month running total of TrimTabs Savings and Investment Flow reached an all-time high of $696.5 billion in November. This indicator tracks inflows into savings vehicles (bank savings, small-denomination CDs, half of large-denomination CDs, and retail money market funds) as well as all long-term stock, bond, and hybrid mutual funds. "
Mark,
Do a simple experiment. Go ask people you know who have real jobs. Ask them how much of a raise they got.
If they average out to 7%, then he's probably right. My guess... NOT.
People that I know are barely getting cost of living adjustments, not above. Why do you think the american people have been complaining that wages have been falling behind? You think its because they're getting only 7% raises a year?
Real jobs? Like all the entrenpreneurs who have spouted up over the past 10 years? I mean what's a real job? Union guys and girls are getting some nice raises here, even though their pensions are at major risk. I know that my BiL's business (gift-type and designer type items manufacturing and design) is dramatically ahead of projections. Sister's retail store, up 20% yoy last I checked.
But as I said, if you've got an Ed Hyman type to dig up better survey numbers, I'm all ears. But take it up with TT if you disagree now. I don't care about the data, unless it gets too good.
Mark
Things are far better than you think, Greenie. In fact, they are so good it's about to get tough for the stock market, strangely enough (I suspect).
Mark, we are trying to forecast the future, not past and not even the present. "Is" is a different verb than "will be" and for good reason.
That's an indisputable truth, greenie. But the trend, it appears, is going in the opposite direction as your prediction. It's fun to talk about this stuff, but getting an accurate bead on it is nearly impossible, as I think I've proven.
Focus on technicals and especially sentiment. You'll be positioned right when/if they kill this thing. Focus on fundy projections and you'll likely miss a lot of profit or worse be leaning the wrong way.
M