Q1 GDP was revised down a tad to 3.1% on the second estimate, still good. Factset has lowered its forecast for Q2 earnings to -4.0% vs. the prior year, a negative. The Fed left rates unchanged today, but indicate they are monitoring economic activity and are open to easing if it is warranted. International economies are slowing and the question is how much will back up into the US economy. The valuation on the S&P remains about the same as last month, 21.5 on the 12 month trailing GAAP P/E, moderately overvalued. When you look at the long term chart, we remain in the long term up channel we have been in for a decade, but since the fall we are living in the bottom half of the channel, which is a little concerning.
The long term bull market remains in effect, but chinks in the armor are starting to show. I don't see the seeds of a big market upswing any time soon, and there are issues that could derail the market if they go in the wrong direction.