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SPY short interest at 1-yr low - No one wants to short: big drop coming


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 17 October 2019 - 07:03 PM

It's getting way overdue for a big drop, and it will happen during the next 3 weeks, probably starting withing a day or tow. 

 

Helene Meisler @hmeisler
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That chart... With U.S. stocks making another run at all-time highs, no one wants to be a short seller https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-17/no-one-wants-to-short-stocks-on-the-cusp-of-a-potential-breakout  via @markets

 

“Is it another sign of complacency? Smells like it,” said Yousef Abbasi, global market strategist at INTL FCStone. “The market is being stubbornly optimistic in the face of several headwinds. It does feel dangerous.”

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There’s certainly reason for optimism. Evidence that two of the largest market overhangs -- a U.S.-China trade war and Brexit -- could be resolved has pushed U.S. equities within 1% of a record. The S&P 500 added 0.4% as of 11:22 a.m. in New York.

https://www.bloomber...ential-breakout

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 17 October 2019 - 07:23 PM

Not a big believer in some of these candlestick patterns but....GMM bearish:

S&P500 Traces Out A Spinning Top Daily Candlestick
The Difference Between a Spinning Top and a Doji

Spinning tops and dojis both represent indecision. Dojis are smaller, with small real bodies and small upper and lower shadows. The Spinning top has long upper and lower shadows. Both patterns occur frequently and are sometimes used to warn of a reversal after a strong price move. Both types of candlesticks rely heavily on confirmation. A strong move after the spinning top or doji tells more about the new potential price direction than the spinning top or doji itself.  – Investopedia

sp_spinning-top.png?w=640

Can’t believe we’ve been sucked into the daily market noise but the recent price action seems kind of important as to whether stocks either break or breakout here.   See our last two posts here and here.

We are far from the old Japanese rice traders who mastered the art of price candlesticks but do use the candles to give us a sense as to where the market’s at,  and to cut through the fog and random noise of daily price movements.

 

https://global-macro...ly-candlestick/

 

 

 



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 18 October 2019 - 06:18 AM

Will go 75% short on my risk portfolio if there SPX moves above 3050

 

Pussyfooting

Hedge fund managers appear to have ever-lower exposure to stocks, which has been a theme this year. It’s now on par with the ends of crises in 2002, 2008, and 2011.

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They also have near-record low exposure to most of the S&P’s major sectors, with the only exceptions being some of the most defensive ones. This is only a rough approximation of how a variety of funds may be positioned, but it has proved fairly accurate as a contrary indicator at extremes. There isn’t much evidence of “smart money” when groupthink is involved.

 

SKEW

The SKEW Index has jumped to a 6 month high, suggesting a rising risk of a black swan event over the next 30 days.

While high SKEW readings aren't usually good for stocks (SKEW was very high before the Q4 2018 stock market crash), the first decently high reading in a long time hasn't proven to be a negative, especially if we isolate for the cases in which the S&P was above its 200 dma.

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The S&P's returns over the next 2-4 weeks were mostly bullish after these signals.

 

 

https://us2.campaign...f&id=cfa16fefde



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 18 October 2019 - 06:23 AM

mikeo188 @mikeo188
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mikeo188 Retweeted mikeo188

The market fatties forbid a volatile day tomorrow. One of their largest options expiration pin paydays of the year depends on it. Thoughts and prayers to whoever thinks the markets run on "fundamentals"



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 18 October 2019 - 06:24 AM

David Larew @ThinkTankCharts
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VIX and the Yen - bottoming out - possible NT top in the markets?? VIX over 14.5 will be a hint to a possible reversal in the markets. MA's with the SPX are Bullish, so this will take a lot to move this Battleship... No Breakfast, eh??

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2:57 AM - 18 Oct 2019


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 18 October 2019 - 06:25 AM

  1. Dollar vs. Euro - big move up for the Euro with the "Breakfast" Deal that isn't. US Dollar Dive...

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    5 min VIX - possible reversal today - running out of buyers for stocks??

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    S&P 500 - possible reversal coming up as Breadth hits the Bollinger Band -

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    Chaikin Indicator - suggesting that this move up is Distribution by Da Boyz to the retail investor??? Interesting chart that is usually Boring....

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#7 dTraderB

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Posted 18 October 2019 - 06:32 AM

Typical of the dot com bubble

 

Charlie BilelloVerified account @charliebilello
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Beyond Meat Market Value History...

Dec 7, 2017: $500 million (series G)

Oct 5, 2018: $1.3 billion (series H)

May 2, 2019 (ipo pricing): $1.5 billion

May 2, 2019 (1st day of trading): $3.8 billion

June 30, 2019: $9.7 billion

July 26, 2019: $14.2 billion

 

Today: $7 billion

7:48 AM - 17 Oct 2019


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 18 October 2019 - 06:40 AM

got this in the mail.. may look at it next week

 

any thoughts?

 

The value of the S&P 500 has a intimate relationship with Gamma Neutral 

https://viking-analytics.com/articles



#9 blustar

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Posted 18 October 2019 - 10:03 AM

It looks to me like SPX 2892/93 will be tested by Monday.


Blessings,

 

blu

BluStar Market Insights Subscriptions

 

 


#10 skott

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Posted 18 October 2019 - 11:20 AM

The daily sentiment index (Jake Bernstein)hit nearly 70 yesterday for the Naz100, S&P not far behind. While these are not
nosebleed extremes, they are a bit frothy. too many bulls. Thanks for the posts Dtrader. all interesting.

what is scary and in keeping with my "everything crashes" possibility. Market down, dollar down, Gold Down! Miners down. only
bonds are up which does make sense. I'm worried. I just hope most financial entities survive if it's a real meltdown and especially
mine.