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Too many Bulls have me worried about a potential bottom


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#1 Rogerdodger

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Posted 29 March 2020 - 02:35 PM

What stands out to me in the Stockcharts AAII Sentiment chart is that the percentage of bulls remains steadfast at around 33% which is much higher than previous bottoms.

 

FWIW, look at the early 2016 bull retreat as a comparison.

2200 better hold and 2100 for sure.

 

3-29-2020-bulls.jpg



#2 dowdeva

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Posted 29 March 2020 - 03:21 PM

Love the mask.

 

I read that someone on twitter broke out the Hepa replacement filter from his a/c unit, added some charcoal in a nylon baggie, and voila! Instant mask.



#3 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 29 March 2020 - 03:50 PM

Erin and I discussed this in our more recent but.

https://stockcharts....ugh-er-334.html

 

Personally, while I'd feel a lot better if there were a lot less Bulls, there ARE plenty of Bears.

https://stockcharts....ugh-er-334.html

There ARE a lot of FinTwit Bears and the net new shorts in the SH are nuts. Seems a lot of people are positioning for the next leg down.

 

Mark


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#4 Rogerdodger

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Posted 29 March 2020 - 05:26 PM

Mark, you are my "sentimental" favorite, so I will cede to your opinion..

 

And I sure don't have any idea except that there seems to be fuel for volatility in both directions with the slightest bit of news.

 

I have been tempted to get some dividend oil plays in my longer term account. Exxon at almost 10%! But for how long?

 

I have plenty of cash... but what will it be worth in a few years?

 

I remember the Carter years. You could buy a new car and sell it later for the same price because of "runaway" inflation...but what if we get runaway deflation? 

I still like the idea of burying some whisky in the back yard. It sure beats chickens.


Edited by Rogerdodger, 29 March 2020 - 05:32 PM.


#5 Rogerdodger

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Posted 29 March 2020 - 05:31 PM

 

Love the mask.

I read that someone on twitter broke out the Hepa replacement filter from his a/c unit, added some charcoal in a nylon baggie, and voila! Instant mask.

 

 I tried that but they freaked out at the bank.

mask.jpg



#6 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 30 March 2020 - 01:42 PM

Love it Roger!

 

I'm personally 50% long near the lows. I'm playing this one very open-mindedly. THE low could be in. Or not. But when folks are getting record short on a 20% rally, I can't be too Bearish. Maybe we get a 50% retracal? Then new lows? Or maybe a higher low... I'm open to any of those scenarios. Today, I was looking for higher prices. Tomorrow, maybe I'll be moving to cash. I just don't know yet.

 

Mark


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