SPX, oil update May.21 on cycles and scenarios
#2
Posted 21 May 2022 - 07:07 AM
Good point on the only way to get oil lower is through a liquidity crisis- I agree.
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#3
Posted 21 May 2022 - 07:28 AM
Saudi Stocks already tanking after classic divergent final high.
Already aggressively top hunting on Crude here...still caution above 110 level.
But back below 108 one more time and Crude could take a BIG tumble....
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
#4
Posted 21 May 2022 - 11:01 AM
Maybe a 5% rally next week (leading up to dell's report and forecast on Thursday?). The spy volume surged around Friday's close. My best fit count on the 1 minute gives a potential target of 410.37, just shy of February's 410.65 low. Of course, in light of the current bearishness this could fail if sell-the-rippers continue to strongly overpower buy-the-dippers.
The banks could rally from this level - ahead of crashing down to a more tradable bottom at about 83 (jmho)
#5
Posted 21 May 2022 - 02:47 PM
May lament not buying csco at $41. At the very least there is a serious gap to fill.
#6
Posted 21 May 2022 - 03:14 PM
And where does nvda go from here?
#7
Posted 21 May 2022 - 06:08 PM
A lot of the biggies appear to have completed daily counts.
If oil crashes amzn might recover nicely.
Even the banks could be done crashing for the time being.
Most of the charts recorded a (higher) double bottom on Friday. There's a lot of money on the sidelines desperate for a reprieve from torturous inflation. That money could decide Friday's rally is as good as any to throw into.
It should probably worry when historical (hysterical?) bears turn bullish, but Mr. Henrich has been around the block a time or two and is no dummy. https://northmantrad...5/20/what-if-3/
OT - probably in need of therapy - but really liked this article.
https://www.theepoch...tm_campaign=rcp
#8
Posted 22 May 2022 - 02:16 PM
Friday's rally could be just a bit early yet. Won't trust rallies or their counts until the price definitively breaks above the downtrend channel.
#9
Posted 23 May 2022 - 04:43 PM
The Q's should rally when this hits 3.5
#10
Posted 24 May 2022 - 01:31 AM
I have an upward bias for this week, and the critical point is next week whether we go down as the 4-week cycle suggest, or if we squeeze up and get buy-signals that can override the cycle.
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