Jump to content



Photo

SPX, oil update May.21 on cycles and scenarios


  • Please log in to reply
16 replies to this topic

#1 bigbud

bigbud

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 532 posts

Posted 21 May 2022 - 05:57 AM




#2 MikeyG

MikeyG

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 2,850 posts

Posted 21 May 2022 - 07:07 AM

Good point on the only way to get oil lower is through a liquidity crisis- I agree. 


mdgcapital@protonmail.com  

papilioinvest.com

@papilioinvest

 

"One soul is worth more than the whole world." 


#3 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 25,937 posts

Posted 21 May 2022 - 07:28 AM

Saudi Stocks already tanking after classic divergent final high.

 

Already aggressively top hunting on Crude here...still caution above 110 level.

 

But back below 108 one more time and Crude could take a BIG tumble....

 

tada.png


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#4 steadyquest

steadyquest

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 772 posts

Posted 21 May 2022 - 11:01 AM

Maybe a 5% rally next week (leading up to dell's report and forecast on Thursday?).  The spy volume surged around Friday's close.  My best fit count on the 1 minute gives a potential target of 410.37, just shy of February's 410.65 low.  Of course, in light of the current bearishness this could fail if sell-the-rippers continue to strongly overpower buy-the-dippers.

 

spy.png

 

spy-low.png

 

The banks could rally from this level - ahead of crashing down to a more tradable bottom at about 83 (jmho)

 

bkx.png



#5 steadyquest

steadyquest

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 772 posts

Posted 21 May 2022 - 02:47 PM

May lament not buying csco at $41.  At the very least there is a serious gap to fill.

 

csco.png



#6 steadyquest

steadyquest

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 772 posts

Posted 21 May 2022 - 03:14 PM

And where does nvda go from here?

 

nvda.png



#7 steadyquest

steadyquest

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 772 posts

Posted 21 May 2022 - 06:08 PM

A lot of the biggies appear to have completed daily counts.

If oil crashes amzn might recover nicely.

 

amzn.png

 

Even the banks could be done crashing for the time being.

 

bkx2.png

 

Most of the charts recorded a (higher) double bottom on Friday.  There's a lot of money on the sidelines desperate for a reprieve from torturous inflation.  That money could decide Friday's rally is as good as any to throw into.

It should probably worry when historical (hysterical?) bears turn bullish, but Mr. Henrich has been around the block a time or two and is no dummy.  https://northmantrad...5/20/what-if-3/

OT - probably in need of therapy - but really liked this article.
https://www.theepoch...tm_campaign=rcp



#8 steadyquest

steadyquest

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 772 posts

Posted 22 May 2022 - 02:16 PM

Friday's rally could be just a bit early yet.  Won't trust rallies or their counts until the price definitively breaks above the downtrend channel.

 

spy-down.png



#9 steadyquest

steadyquest

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 772 posts

Posted 23 May 2022 - 04:43 PM

The Q's should rally when this hits 3.5

 

xle-xlk.png



#10 bigbud

bigbud

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 532 posts

Posted 24 May 2022 - 01:31 AM

I have an upward bias for this week, and the critical point is next week whether we go down as the 4-week cycle suggest, or if we squeeze up and get buy-signals that can override the cycle.