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Risk Windows & the Well Announced Bounce


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 21 May 2022 - 11:53 AM

My risk window system output is a mess this week with risk cycle turn clusters at the front of the week, a smaller one in the middle and another larger one near the end of the week, so maybe an "M" shaped week.   The day with highest reading is Tuesday the 24th, but not by much.  

 

Last week the Monday risk window was a day early and a dollar short dud with the turn coming the next day.  The Thursday into Friday morning risk window did catch a complex low of some sort the importance of which will depend on the action early this coming week. 

 

ZMwZYtO.png

 

Regarding my post concerning the DeMark 13 count looking for a low, I think it is now 12, but I haven't seen any follow-up from him  confirming this.  If anyone has, please post a response with an update.

 

The VIX  minus future VIX bottom spotter that I posted about is diverging with the S&P, so maybe it is signalling a minor low, but it still has not reached the heights needed to call a big low. 

 

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Just about every tout's stuff that I've read on the web this weekend is looking for a bounce next week.  Several of the more reliable long cycles that I track have turn windows the first 10 days of June, so if the best announced short squeeze bounce ever doesn't develop, or fizzles, next week, then early June should be the next fertile ground to dig for the low.

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 21 May 2022 - 11:54 AM.


#2 Douglas

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Posted 22 May 2022 - 07:21 AM

Since the low in 2009, the Fib 162 week simple moving average has done a pretty good job of stopping sell offs in the QQQ.  At the end of last week the QQQ was  sitting pretty right on top of this supportive moving average.

 

whTwSE9.png

 

 It's probably sayonara, if this average is properly breached and repels a back test like below in September of 2008.

 

B3jzo0w.png

 

Regards,

Douglas



#3 K Wave

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Posted 22 May 2022 - 08:57 AM



Since the low in 2009, the Fib 162 week simple moving average has done a pretty good job of stopping sell offs in the QQQ.  At the end of last week the QQQ was  sitting pretty right on top of this supportive moving average.

 

whTwSE9.png

 

 It's probably sayonara, if this average is properly breached and repels a back test like below in September of 2008.

 

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

With the amount of termite damage I am seeing out there, do not think that support structure will hold for long...if at all...

 

We are certainly getting to the bouncy zone...but even more stocks just went over the edge this last week...wave after wave after wave of stocks doing what John Deere below just did...

 

Oil stocks now the only ones not broken or in process of just breaking yet, but if Saudi 30 is any indication, that may be coming soon.

 

So very real possibility, that bounce or not, this bear party just getting started...

 

In any event, once 300 is by the wayside on Berkshire...Look Out Below....

 

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CAT a little less dramatic, but big stock after big stock after big stock breaking down...this aint done yet...not by a long shot...

 

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And look at the reversal in Dillards...just brutal break...300 breakout fakeout going to lead a loooonnng decline...and it could start to get real fast for a bit...

 

This stuff is happening everywhere I look...week after week

 

And if anyone thinks AAPL TSLA MSFT gonna save the day...GOOD LUCK with that...

 

 

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