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Markets Coiling: BUY/SELL the Breakout


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 23 April 2023 - 04:54 PM

Great to be back after a restful few days.   Wanted to restart trading on Thursday but did not like the market behavior. 

 

Coiling, basing, narrow range ...whatever word or phrase you want, but it will break out next this week

 

I lean BULLISH

 

Very small LONG

 

Holding TLT CALLS & UVXY CALLS

 

BIG TECH earnings, I think they will be better than expected

 

I am buying DIPS for the next week or two and leaning LONG but will change quickly

 

 

FED hike, then PAUSE and  markets will rally

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 23 April 2023 - 04:55 PM

"The BOJ's decision, and Ueda's press conference on Friday, will round off a week in which attention in Asia also turns to Japanese retail sales, unemployment and Tokyo consumer inflation reports, South Korean GDP and Australian inflation.

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This comes as month-end approaches and investors look ahead to the U.S. central bank's May 2-3 policy meeting. Fed officials are in blackout period, so expectations for the decision will be molded by U.S. data, corporate earnings, signals from the banking sector, and the ebb and flow of debt ceiling concerns."



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 23 April 2023 - 04:58 PM

I think markets break out this week.

"As I have written for weeks, ES remains stuck in what I call an extreme dip buy regime, with every dip algorithmically bought. The problem though? The dip buys have increasingly limited follow through, so much so that not only was the last week the tightest range week of 2022, but April has been the tightest range month since early 2020. ES is clearly coiling up for a significant move, perhaps in early May."



#4 redfoliage2

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Posted 23 April 2023 - 05:29 PM

No way for a breakout and more likely a breakdown - with the Fed resuming QT as it had the bank crisis under control I'd expect a liquidity crunch coming  ....................


Edited by redfoliage2, 23 April 2023 - 05:35 PM.


#5 linrom1

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Posted 23 April 2023 - 07:09 PM

 
 
So just adding a few things together now... with the outlook for $DX fading, and the fact that those $VIX long triple ETF products like $UVXY are approaching reverse-split levels, + tech-heavy earnings next week... that could all set up a squeeze-aided Month End Mark Up Bonanza.

Edited by linrom1, 23 April 2023 - 07:14 PM.


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 24 April 2023 - 05:56 AM

QT? not seeing evidence of FED restarting it

FED PAUSE is very BULLISH

WHY? END OF A HIKING CYCLE.

I agree market is still doubtful & unsure with very low participation but FOMO rally is highly probable

No way for a breakout and more likely a breakdown - with the Fed resuming QT as it had the bank crisis under control I'd expect a liquidity crunch coming  ....................



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 24 April 2023 - 05:57 AM

Precisely my take on the markets.
End of HIKING CYCLE is HUGE














https://twitter.com/...482935891034114

 









thomas
 






@*



 
 


So just adding a few things together now... with the outlook for $DX fading, and the fact that those $VIX long triple ETF products like $UVXY are approaching reverse-split levels, + tech-heavy earnings next week... that could all set up a squeeze-aided Month End Mark Up Bonanza.



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 24 April 2023 - 05:58 AM

This actually was negative!

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

#9 dTraderB

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Posted 24 April 2023 - 06:01 AM

POLL VERY BEARISH 58-42

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) tweeted at 1:05 PM on Sat, Apr 22, 2023:
Net sentiment chart. Spread is the largest (to the downside) since mid February.

For the most part you guys tend to get the direction correct even though from week to week it is a coin toss.

https://t.co/oJLr5dcQXg

#10 dTraderB

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Posted 24 April 2023 - 06:09 AM

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:
Dallas Fed April manufacturing survey, Chicago Fed National business survey
U.S. corporate earnings: First Republic, Coca Cola, Whirlpool, Ameriprise, Brown&Brown, Packaging Corp of America, Alexandria Real Estate, Cadence Design Systems
European Central Bank board member Fabio Panetta, French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol starts week-long visit to the United States for summit with President Joe Biden