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McClellan
Started by
diogenes227
, Nov 05 2008 02:21 PM
128 replies to this topic
#11
diogenes227
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Posted 13 January 2009 - 01:23 AM
That's a sell today on the Nasdaq Summation. Not quite on the New York yet. Would have been nice if they both gave a sell on the same day but that's the way it goes... The tumble mentioned above came pretty much on time. With the New York hanging in, there might be one more bounce before a more extended drop, and then again there might not be. Regardless, the bears appear to be getting control of the market. I think it's time to sell or to start selling the rallies, or to go short on any bounces depending on how one plays the game.
As anemic as this rally has been overall, we might see new lows on the decline.
Interesting that the VIX broke that trend line right at the top.
Good trading to all.
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#12
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Posted 14 January 2009 - 06:39 PM
And now the New York Summation, NYSI, has joined the sell signal. Given we have a six-day down pattern in most of the indicies, one would think there's going to be a bounce but maybe not.
Regardless, until further notice, the bears control the market, and context is now sell the rallies, short the bounces, tighten stops depending on how one wants to play the game. Given long term bear market that's in force, it could get ugly to the downside.
Good trading to all.
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#13
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Posted 24 January 2009 - 05:13 PM
Hmm, we could have a rally here.
We've been down 9 or 7 trading day on the summation depending on which summation (Naz or NYSE) you're looking at. That count alone can be a prelude to a bounce.
In addition note the green circle on the NYMO below. During this decline the NYMO has been putting in lows below lows and highs below highs but that is a low above a low, indicating, however tenuously, there might be a pause at least in downside momentum.
And that last hard red candle down (see last red arrow), has not quite followed through, at least not yet, to the downside. We'd probably have to get above the 838 to 840 area to get going (see blue trendline on the 30-minute chart earlier in this post).
Still bearish here overall because the summation is still declining and typically in bullish times (and these are NOT bullish times) goes down for three to five weeks and we're still just in the second week. But...
But we could bounce the NYMO back toward the zero line for a week or so, roll over somewhere in the third or fourth week to create some notable divergence, and then see if we can get a decent upside blast going.
No feeling of certainty at this point. Just trying to read the tea leaves and keep eyes open to what might be unfolding.
Good trading to all.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p16521773578&a=124727216&r=9827.png
We've been down 9 or 7 trading day on the summation depending on which summation (Naz or NYSE) you're looking at. That count alone can be a prelude to a bounce.
In addition note the green circle on the NYMO below. During this decline the NYMO has been putting in lows below lows and highs below highs but that is a low above a low, indicating, however tenuously, there might be a pause at least in downside momentum.
And that last hard red candle down (see last red arrow), has not quite followed through, at least not yet, to the downside. We'd probably have to get above the 838 to 840 area to get going (see blue trendline on the 30-minute chart earlier in this post).
Still bearish here overall because the summation is still declining and typically in bullish times (and these are NOT bullish times) goes down for three to five weeks and we're still just in the second week. But...
But we could bounce the NYMO back toward the zero line for a week or so, roll over somewhere in the third or fourth week to create some notable divergence, and then see if we can get a decent upside blast going.
No feeling of certainty at this point. Just trying to read the tea leaves and keep eyes open to what might be unfolding.
Good trading to all.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&i=p16521773578&a=124727216&r=9827.png
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#14
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Posted 27 January 2009 - 09:00 PM
What do you know, this expected little rally has turned the Summation positive. I doubt the bottom is in and expect more downside action to set up for a bigger rally later. However, an up Summation is and up Summation -- so it's a BUY. Or at least is a buy the dips, close out shorts, look for stocks breaking out, i.e., be a bull for a while. Until further notice, this move could zap the shorts and make them cry.
One cautionary note: if this turns down again in the next couple of days or so, it will be a downside hook and hooks are often a sign of acceleration in the direction of the hook.
Good trading to all.
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#15
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Posted 03 February 2009 - 05:51 PM
Got a buy on the Nasdaq Comp today with an upturn in the NASI (see below). The New York Summation (NYSI) did not confirm it however (see above). Life is hard. Be a lot easier when they agree with each other. And the way the Summation is waffling sideways is troubling. Still, with the developing uptrends in the Nasdaq Oscillator and the New York Ocillator (see below and above for the NAMO and NYMO), and the developing downtrend in the VIX, I'm leaning toward an imminent rally. Until they all fall apart, of course (which could be tomorrow since we are, after all, still in a vicious bear market and will be for some time).
Good trading to all.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p00787307581&a=122655226&r=7871.png
Good trading to all.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p00787307581&a=122655226&r=7871.png
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#16
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Posted 06 February 2009 - 09:01 PM
The NYSI joined the NASI buy signal today. See above Comp and SPX charts.
The lows above lows in the their respective oscillators paid off with today's surge to the up side. With rising summations, it's time now to buy the dips, buy the calls, sell the puts, look for stocks that are breaking out of bases, however one wants to play the game -- but play it on the long side.
Good trading to everyone.
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#17
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Posted 10 February 2009 - 07:37 PM
Both the NYSI and NASI turned down today giving sell signals.
This is typical action in the third week of a McClellan cycle. In bull markets it would often be "a buy spike" -- a time in which ideally, the price action makes a new low while the McClellan Oscillator does not, setting up the kind of divergence that's a great gift to the bulls. That can still happen (note the green line on the NYMO and the red line on the low of the SPX), and if it does there will be no more sellers for a while.
However, we are in a big-time bear market and will be for some time (at least until the index walks the 50 moving average over to the 200 moving average and asks the 200 for a dance). The sell has to be respected until the summation can turn up again. In a bear market, this can go down until it quits going down and that could be down a lot.
Tough times for the markets. For the country.
Good trading to all.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&st=2007-10-10&i=p94426138937&a=161122330&r=3429.png
This is typical action in the third week of a McClellan cycle. In bull markets it would often be "a buy spike" -- a time in which ideally, the price action makes a new low while the McClellan Oscillator does not, setting up the kind of divergence that's a great gift to the bulls. That can still happen (note the green line on the NYMO and the red line on the low of the SPX), and if it does there will be no more sellers for a while.
However, we are in a big-time bear market and will be for some time (at least until the index walks the 50 moving average over to the 200 moving average and asks the 200 for a dance). The sell has to be respected until the summation can turn up again. In a bear market, this can go down until it quits going down and that could be down a lot.
Tough times for the markets. For the country.
Good trading to all.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&st=2007-10-10&i=p94426138937&a=161122330&r=3429.png
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#18
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Posted 26 February 2009 - 01:49 AM
Just an update on the leveraged short ETFs since the last NYSI/NASI sells on the Feb 10, ten trading days ago:
SDS up 14 percent.
QID up 11 percent.
TZA up 19 percent.
TWM up 21 percent.
Since the Summation's first breakdown on Jan 14, it's been nearly 30 days generally to the downside, and there's probably more downside to come, but... but one might want to tighten up the short stops.
Good trading to everyone.
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#19
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Posted 04 March 2009 - 07:11 PM
Just a heads up on the McClellans. NYMO has put in a low above a low with a small divergence and at the same time the NAMO has a potential double-bottom in divergent territory. In a bull market I'd say this would probably lead to a rally, but we're still in the bear (and will be for quite some time), so maybe this time it won't lead anywhere. The VIX has not dropped hard so there is no confirmation of an up move there.
Still it should be noted since the Feb 10 turn down in the NY Summation:
SDS is up 30 percent.
QID is up 26 percent.
TZA is up 47 percent.
TWM is up 40 percent.
You know what they say about pigs?
Good trading to all.
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
#20
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Posted 09 March 2009 - 05:46 PM
TZA, FAZ double since Feb 10 sell.
http://stockcharts.c...3628&r=7381.png
http://stockcharts.c...7836&r=6351.png
http://stockcharts.c...3628&r=7381.png
http://stockcharts.c...7836&r=6351.png
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
