A very bullish wave count: little room for error

short term is tough with Friday's decline,I still like the case that downside is limited, however there is a case that the Sep lows might be tested in stuff like GDXJ, a large and sstained decline on Monday would add odds to that possibility IMO

 

Senor

are you out here?

short term is tough with Friday's decline,I still like the case that downside is limited, however there is a case that the Sep lows might be tested in stuff like GDXJ, a large and sstained decline on Monday would add odds to that possibility IMO

 

Senor

Got a trend for a low on GDXJ for around the 23rd of November, perhaps that will be a test of the Sept. lows and then a good rally will unfold into Christmas or more. 

 

short term is tough with Friday's decline,I still like the case that downside is limited, however there is a case that the Sep lows might be tested in stuff like GDXJ, a large and sstained decline on Monday would add odds to that possibility IMO

 

Senor

are you out here?

 

Nope, I just did some light buying this morning, as always DYODD

Senor

on gld we seem to have done 3 waves down from april 11 to aug 15

then  a .38 rally into october 26 for a wave iv

i believe we are doing wave v down now for a final low to this primary wave 2

trading above 118 on gld to me would suggest the wave 2 is done

dont think that will happen for a while

also i have a possible turn for gld around nov 30 fwiw 

i am looking at that time frame as a possible final low 

on gld we seem to have done 3 waves down from april 11 to aug 15

 

then  a .38 rally into october 26 for a wave iv

 

i believe we are doing wave v down now for a final low to this primary wave 2

 

trading above 118 on gld to me would suggest the wave 2 is done

 

dont think that will happen for a while

THAT is still a viable possibility, it is possible gold gets below 1124  also.  we just have to wait to see how it unfolds.  todays dsi reading is 11  so we are hitting extremes in sentiment

dharma

Silver appears to be putting in a double bottom and XAU has diverging momentum with a bull flag formation and nice doji, could this be the low?   

chart with declining volume too... 

Declining volume is meaningless as a divergence measurement in the environment of continuous closes under the previous lows...

It's telling you there are NO BUYERS.

Declining volume is meaningless as a divergence measurement in the environment of continuous closes under the previous lows...

 

It's telling you there are NO BUYERS.

I believe the low for gold came in last August as my oscillator predicted and then the gold stocks bottomed in September (breaking your 'stocks lead' rule. ), this should just be a test of those earlier lows,  it could go down into around the 20th of Nov. from some other oscillator projections but those are not as confirmed as the August signal was so a low could happen any time now ... unless it doesn't . 

Edited by Russ, 13 November 2018 - 03:59 PM.