My risk summation system does not show a clear peak in risk this coming week, just several days with slightly higher than average values concentrated at the beginning and end of the week. This is a bit unusual, so I don't know quite what it means. I guess it's signalling a muddle through kind of week and maybe everyone will be just waiting on the election fireworks next week.
The jury is still out on last week's Friday the 23rd risk window. It's certainly not clear from the "V" shaped action Friday that it was important. Speaking of letters, my inverted "N" guess for the trading pattern last week was again wrong. The DJIA just made six swings up and down inside what appears to be a crude descending triangle, nothing from the alphabet. These descending triangles can lead to powerful moves in the direction of the breakout from the triangle, so like last Friday's risk window, maybe Monday's action will clarify what's in store this coming week.
On this side of the pond in my neighborhood corona cases are doubling every few days from what was a very low number. Loads of big city folk are fogging down to our quiet little town to escape restrictions and are bringing the the plague with them. On the bright side, real estate prices in this neck of the woods have jumped some 20% as these bug carrying visitors scramble to buy themselves a bit of respite from the cities. It's looking like Boris is going to have to take us off the cliff in order to get his European BREXIT negotiating partners' attention. I don't think Cable is pricing this in yet or the FTSE for that matter. Maybe I'm too pessimistic and cooler heads will prevail, but as I learned in my misspent youth playing chicken with friends on bicycles, somebody's got to swerve.
Regards,
Douglas
Edited by Douglas, 25 October 2020 - 07:26 AM.
