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Everyone is bullish? FOMO Mad rush into Equities... ST TOP


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2021 - 09:18 AM

Friday saved my week from being down to small weekly net profit, not much different from the first week of 2021. 

 

Is it that all the good news has been priced into the market? Maybe....

 

This poll has been fairly accurate nut such a big gap between BEARS & BULLS? 

 

Saturday Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?
 
UP
39.9%
 
DOWN
60.1%
2,402 votes·Final results

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2021 - 09:20 AM

27 QQQ PUTS

1 NQ hedge long

Was tempted to add another on the late Friday drop but it appears as if there is more downside so let's see what happens from now until after the holiday



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2021 - 09:22 AM

Citi Panic/Euphoria. I think this is the highest on record (unsure but I believe it is)


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2021 - 09:24 AM

was up last week.... 92 soon?  This is a key ST resistance/support level for the Dollar INdex.

 

Dollar Index. I mean who doesn't hate the buck these days?


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2021 - 09:25 AM

Just so happens my SPX low for 2021 is 2800

 

Since everyone is predicting on Twitter, here’s mine: S&P500 will close 2021 year below 2800. Now 3800. In case such a closing is not realized, I will forever delete this account. Never to come back tweet again. #ES_F $SPX $NDX $SPY
 


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2021 - 09:27 AM

 
 
tSZqoR8u_mini.png
 
SentimenTrader
@sentimentrader
· 23h
We didn't think traders could get any more speculative than they were at the end of August. We were wrong. For the first time, small trader call buying (adjusted for equivalent shares) exceeded 9% of total NYSE volume last week.


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2021 - 09:30 AM

WHAT INFLATION? WHERE? 

 

As U.S. Fights Today’s Problems, Tomorrow’s Inflation Starts to Stir
 
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Jan. 15, 2021 9:02 pm ET

 

The dual impacts of the expiration of many Cares Act payments in the fourth quarter and the post-holiday Covid surge are apparent in the latest economic data. Retail sales suffered their third monthly decline in December after negative revisions for November and October. Last month’s drop was a worse-than-expected 0.7%, while the so-called control group (excluding gasoline, automotive, building materials, and food services) that figures into GDP calculations was down a steep 1.9%.

Despite these signs of a renewed downturn, the biggest threat to the stock market is inflation, contends Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at the Bleakley Advisory Group. That’s even with the consumer-price index rising just 1.4% from its level a year ago and 1.6% excluding food and energy costs. Inflation has been curbed by flat or declining prices for goods, while costs for services have steadily risen. But now, supply tightness is beginning to show up in goods markets, from DRAM chips to a broad range of commodities, from petroleum and metals to grains, he observes.

Eventually, that will feed into still higher bond yields, which will take a toll on stocks, he argues. “In 2021, it’s easy to project the trajectory of earnings and the economy,” with the certain rebound from last year’s unprecedented collapse, he says in an interview.

https://www.barrons....tir-51610762538



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2021 - 09:34 AM

Will buy banks and XLF later, lower 

 

already taken profits in ($MS) , ($GS) and ($XLF) , but still have medium-sized long positions in ($C) , ($BAC) , ($JPM) and ($WFC) . And I am now considering taking an XLF short hedge against my "forever" holdings in banks to insulate me from some turbulence over the next few months. (Later in day I shorted XLF) As an alternative, I am also considering writing calls in my four bank holdings to protect me from the downside, to take in some premium and to avoid large taxable gains. Stay tuned...


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2021 - 09:36 AM

Just last summer, owning the S&P 500 seemed a peerless as well as prudent approach, an indomitable index led by the biggest and best. But the market today is more about the pump than the passive, the S&P now a wallflower at a wild party. Weekend column.
 

https://www.cnbc.com...xing-trend.html



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 17 January 2021 - 09:39 AM

#RealInvestmentReport is out. With everyone in the pool, the question now becomes who is left to buy? We take look at #sentiment, #valuation heat maps, #monetary #policy risks, and provide our #investor #resolutions for 2021.