Maybe I'm Looking at This Wrong

Setting the FED aside the way I see it is this:

1)  We have a lot of people out the workforce who may or may Not reenter.

2)  If they do reenter they will have higher wages will impact business profits

      UNLESS business is able to pass those cost on.

3)  Some industries may have that ability, but if prices exceed a certain level

      people will stop buying -- opt out or defer that purchase -- because of the cost.

4)  A second alternative is instead of Not buying people may reduce the amounts

      going into their 401Ks such that the current flows to the market will be reduced.

So where is this additional capital going to come from to bid up prices?

Yes, there can be a movement from one sector to another, but that is churn, not additional capital.

After doing this for over 50 years, I’ve learned that it matters diddly-squat where investment capital comes from…it only matters how much there is at any given time, and more importantly, when and where it’s being put to work. Right now, the short term and intermediate term trends of money flow for equities is currently pointing to higher prices through (at least) this months OPEX period. 

Better to let others to try to fundamentally figure out the whys and wherefores after the majority of these trends have already passed.

Fib

Price is the only thing that matters. All else is opinion and interpretation.

Momentum/trend is your friend both up and down on the timeframe YOU trade.

Thanks. 

Point Well Taken.  Guess I needed a reminder.

Higher Commodity prices usually means higher stock prices in the short and medium term...   If momentum is strong enough it can out power short and medium term sell signals...  

Only thing that matters for stock prices is money supply. Look at annual budget deficits by federal gov't and the bond buying by federal reserve. Both are at record levels. Where does that money end up? In stock market at the end of food chain.

P/E ratios are now close to internet era levels of 2000, and 33% higher than before the 1929 crash. Enjoy the ride but keep parachute ready.