Bulled-up!

So the Twitterati are at record Bullish levels and now AAII reports 56.9% Bulls.

I'm not saying these readings can't get worse and that the market can't continue to rally on unabated, but it sure looks to me like the wrong people are awfully Bulled-up.

I'm predicting a very hard to trade, very sharp, fast correction starting as soon as today, but perhaps in a few. It'll probably be about over just as all the indicators turn over to Sells.

Mark

It's the seasonality ................................

DJT and XLE down, that's good enough for me to go short DOW.

to me it's early to go short, because when you look at an indicator and you see it overbought......well the question is.....for how long can it stay overbought before the stock market starts to correct ? Overbought alone is not enough imo for correcting.  And unfortunately no one can know for how long the overbought condition has to last before having a market correcting. That's the weak point of every indicator

Edited by andr99, 08 April 2021 - 11:09 AM.

I don't even look at sentiment, options data or breadth now, it's too easy to be wrong based on this

stuff. How about the big drop that was expected based on AAII 2 weeks ago and the market had a big 

rally instead? Do you really think it's a good idea to fade bullish polls in a bull market? Doesn't make sense

to me to continue to be wrong. Simple is best, just trade price and don't try to call the market every day,

it can't be done without being wrong 50% of the time. Trade price with the trend, buy the dip, that is all you

need to make money, only try a small short at major resistance levels, like long trend lines, otherwise just

buy oversold, don't chase overbought.

Interesting points, do agree just going by price is best as it does appear indicators are now strongly skewed due to the infusion of cash from the Fed.  All year I've been able to grab trades both ways most of the time and when the market is moving to much in one direction you know its going to pull back sometime.  One reason why I prefer to just selling out of the money options as I don't have to worry about all that and build my shorts or longs.  One thing I like to live by is the fact that "the market never goes up forever and never goes down forever".  I do think biden heard my new slogan though, biden=volatility cause since I said it last week we've only gone up lol!  Next week I think things will get back to normal!  

Edited by 12SPX, 09 April 2021 - 08:10 AM.

I don't even look at sentiment, options data or breadth now, it's too easy to be wrong based on this

stuff. How about the big drop that was expected based on AAII 2 weeks ago and the market had a big 

rally instead? Do you really think it's a good idea to fade bullish polls in a bull market? Doesn't make sense

to me to continue to be wrong. Simple is best, just trade price and don't try to call the market every day,

it can't be done without being wrong 50% of the time. Trade price with the trend, buy the dip, that is all you

need to make money, only try a small short at major resistance levels, like long trend lines, otherwise just

buy oversold, don't chase overbought.

you said it a lot better than I ever could if I tried........and not just because of the language which is not my own and still a barrier to me 

The reasons I am looking for  the top the third week or fourth is,  today was just a harbinger, data is going to be hot and getting even hotter. Those of you that are familiar with the concept of the risk free rate, and why the CAPM is the building block of finance, know that money managers can only apply their complex hedging strategies for so long to assuage damage, ride out the damage to the market goes North again, I heard MR. Wonderful say 3% will be the beginning of competition, I believe  that's wrong many money managers will find themselves on the canvas long before that. Look at all the damage 1 hedge fund did last week. (JMHO)

The reasons I am looking for  the top the third week or fourth is,  today was just a harbinger, data is going to be hot and getting even hotter. Those of you that are familiar with the concept of the risk free rate, and why the CAPM is the building block of finance, know that money managers can only apply their complex hedging strategies for so long to assuage damage, ride out the damage to the market goes North again, I heard MR. Wonderful say 3% will be the beginning of competition, I believe  that's wrong many money managers will find themselves on the canvas long before that. Look at all the damage 1 hedge fund did last week. (JMHO)

It's a bull market with a Democrat president, they don't lead bear markets. after 10-20 years people still haven't learned much on this site.

Just took half a short position in ym 33626. (jmho)