I watched Powell, and I nearly choked on my drink when he said long rates were now positive. In what alternative universe does that guy live in? I assume he means that if you believe the FED will sooner or later bring inflation back down, then the average return over the life of the Treasury will be positive. I think that's a stretch given the current 10 year yield is about 3.3%, and the FED is trying to lower inflation by using a FED funds rate that is a fraction of the inflation rate. Does anyone with at least one functioning eye and at least a half functioning brain believe that over the next 10 years inflation will average less than 3.3% given the FED's propensity to crank up the money pumps?
Powell also shot down the notion that the current inflation was mostly due to the war, although I did notice that he didn't hold up his hand and admit that it was mostly his and the other central bankers fault due to all the funny money that they "printed". He also didn't say the US was in a recession right now which I believe it is. The market certainly loved his tone, cause it lit off and rallied, so mission accomplished on the FED's new prime directive of righting the sagging S&P.
By the way, just in case you think you got it rough the next time you fill up the gas tank back home in the States, yesterday I paid £1.99/liter for regular on a road trip. That works to about $11.11/gallon at the current really low exchange rate.
Regards,
Douglas
