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Risk Windows for Week of 28 Nov & the General Hospital Solution


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 26 November 2022 - 07:52 AM

According to my risk summation system, the days this coming week or so with the highest chance of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Tuesday November 29th and Friday December the 2nd through Monday December the 5th.

 

This past week the Monday the 21st high value risk window was a disappointment only tagging a minor low on the week's DJIA upward journey to Nirvana.  The jury is still out on the Friday the 25th risk window waiting for the action on Monday the 28th.  With the November 29th risk window coming so quickly on its heels, I don't hold out much hope for big things from this risk window either.

 

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I put the Prosecco on ice this past Friday ready to pop a cork and celebrate a new bull market this coming week if the DJIA can just manage to tack on another 46 points thusly gaining 20% from the low on October 13th, although if my E-Wave count is correct, it won't be a long party with a correction expected soon.

 

Every bear market needs its Lehman & Madoff moments and we got the later in spades this past week with the FTX saga.  The Bank of England may have stepped in front of the Lehman event by restarting QE to bail out the UK pension system a few weeks ago.  It's hard to believe that there's not at least one more smelly shoe to drop given my expectations for another serious bear leg down sometime later in 2023. 

 

Longer dated interest rates continued their sag down this past week further widening the long to short spread foretelling a recession, but you wouldn't know it from the stock market which, as shown above, marched north all week.  The Fed Head speaks this coming Wednesday and needs to rein in some of the giddiness given we're on the cusp of a new bull market declaration which would pump consumption hurting his inflation fight.  

 

Speaking of inflation fights, the nurses here in the UK are in one with the government asking for a 19% pay rise and are for the first time ever threatening to strike.  This might seem like a lot for them to ask until you realize inflation here is running north of 10% and nurses are badly underpaid.  How badly you ask.  Well in London the average nurse salary is about £28,000 and the average home sells for about £680,000, so a nurse even married to another nurse could not qualify for a mortgage for an average house.  For all you soap fans, they would need to use the General Hospital solution and marry a doctor.  Since the NHS is also experiencing a severe doctor shortage, that's getting even tougher too, and since the current UK government strategy for dealing with inflation is heavily dependent on hope and luck, maybe that 19% is not all that unreasonable.

 

Regards,

Douglas 



#2 fib_1618

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Posted 26 November 2022 - 09:03 AM

Speaking of inflation fights, the nurses here in the UK are in one with the government asking for a 19% pay rise and are for the first time ever threatening to strike.  This might seem like a lot for them to ask until you realize inflation here is running north of 10% and nurses are badly underpaid.  How badly you ask.  Well in London the average nurse salary is about £28,000 and the average home sells for about £680,000, so a nurse even married to another nurse could not qualify for a mortgage for an average house.  For all you soap fans, they would need to use the General Hospital solution and marry a doctor.  Since the NHS is also experiencing a severe doctor shortage, that's getting even tougher too, and since the current UK government strategy for dealing with inflation is heavily dependent on hope and luck, maybe that 19% is not all that unreasonable.

 

Seems like an effort in futility...not likely to happen under current "state run" conditions. Besides, the cost of healthcare itself continues to "inflate" as well, so unless the NHS decides that healthcare isn't free anymore to help in paying a "fair wage", the RCN (no less the BMA) would probably have more luck in either going private (if that's at all possible since they were state trained and maybe under contract to perform), changing their profession, or move to another country.

 

Bottom line: no one is forcing them to keep working at their current job, and they KNEW that salary was going to be dictated by political agendas. To wit, the very best thing they can do is to stop voting for politicians that continue to support socialist idealistic agendas ( including those that were blatantly manipulated without cause) and their usual failures under an open and free society.

 

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#3 Douglas

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Posted 26 November 2022 - 11:08 AM

Prime Minister Sunak has already said the nurses' demand is not affordable.  He didn't say it was unreasonable.  Healthcare isn't free here, since taxes are ferocious and getting worse if the Prime Minister has his way.    

 

The nurses going private, I suppose, is an option.   A wealthy friend of mine and his wife in London who's had a few health issues have private health care insurance and they're paying the equivalent of about $24,000 a year which excludes all emergency care which is all provided by the NHS in the UK.  It's a lot cheaper if you don't have any claims, but as soon as you do, the price skyrockets.  Changing countries here is about the same distance as changing states in the US, but it is a lot tougher since none of our neighbors, except Ireland, speak English. and changing careers once you are middle aged and have a family is easier said than done.  

 

As you said, no one forced the nurses to join this profession, but they probably joined back when they were young and idealistic, not old and jaded like me.  When they started out, prices probably weren't so crazy relative to their salary.  Compounding of inflation sneaks up on you, especially when it's double digit like now, (1+i) raised to the nth power gets big quickly.   

 

In terms of who they vote for, Ladbrokes currently pegs the odds of Labor (the more socialist party here) winning the next general election as more than five times higher the Conservatives who are currently in charge, but the next election is probably not until early 2025, so Conservatives have time to turn things around.  

 

My nurses comments were meant to drive home the notion that inflation is moving quickly into labor cost and will be difficult to put back in the bottle if action is not taken soon.

 

Regards,

Douglas



#4 linrom1

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Posted 26 November 2022 - 11:40 AM

 

Prime Minister Sunak has already said the nurses' demand is not affordable.  He didn't say it was unreasonable.  Healthcare isn't free here, since taxes are ferocious and getting worse if the Prime Minister has his way.    

 

 

 

The nurses going private, I suppose, is an option.   A wealthy friend of mine and his wife in London who's had a few health issues have private health care insurance and they're paying the equivalent of about $24,000 a year which excludes all emergency care which is all provided by the NHS in the UK.  It's a lot cheaper if you don't have any claims, but as soon as you do, the price skyrockets.  Changing countries here is about the same distance as changing states in the US, but it is a lot tougher since none of our neighbors, except Ireland, speak English. and changing careers once you are middle aged and have a family is easier said than done.  

 

As you said, no one forced the nurses to join this profession, but they probably joined back when they were young and idealistic, not old and jaded like me.  When they started out, prices probably weren't so crazy relative to their salary.  Compounding of inflation sneaks up on you, especially when it's double digit like now, (1+i) raised to the nth power gets big quickly.   

 

In terms of who they vote for, Ladbrokes currently pegs the odds of Labor (the more socialist party here) winning the next general election as more than five times higher the Conservatives who are currently in charge, but the next election is probably not until early 2025, so Conservatives have time to turn things around.  

 

My nurses comments were meant to drive home the notion that inflation is moving quickly into labor cost and will be difficult to put back in the bottle if action is not taken soon.

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

Don't ever let a nurse treat you and diagnose you. The role of a nurse was to "nurse' patients treated by doctors---they were not supposed to make life and death decisions like they do here in USA. In US you got low IQ girls to go into these community and for profit tech schools to get their nursing degrees and make 6 figures salaries to be medical imbeciles.


Edited by linrom1, 26 November 2022 - 11:40 AM.


#5 pdx5

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Posted 26 November 2022 - 12:31 PM

" In US you got low IQ girls to go into these community and for profit tech schools to get their nursing degrees and make 6 figures salaries to be medical imbeciles."

 

I agree with that. Nurses in US are overpaid for what they do. As you said, they are not qualified to diagnose or treat patients.

They are to follow instructions given by doctor to simply administer meds or monitor patient with gadgets.

In the old days they used to have "orderlies" who would clean up patients and do their beds or lift patients to move them inside hospital. Now I do not see those workers. Nurses are supposed to that work.

 

Anyways, I am very happy with my medical insurance costs. I am with Humana Medicare advantage plan.

Human pays me every month to stay  in their plan, and therefor  cost to me is negative dollars. Out of pocket maximum for year 2023 is $3400. After I spend $3400, Human covers all additional expenses. But I have no serious health issues, so my medical expenses are usually less than $200 for the year for routine meds such as simple anti-biotics after any tooth work and blood pressure meds Lisinopril which is very cheap.


Edited by pdx5, 26 November 2022 - 12:39 PM.

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