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hey you Americans of this forum


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#1 andr99

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Posted 29 November 2022 - 11:32 AM

how are you doing ? I'm freezing in my ''sunny'' Winter and I'm long, long, long...and long again and I'm not planning to change anything till January at least. Bear market over in my opinion and it's so over that I don't know what else to post here. Are you interested to know why the Neanderthals disappeared or why the ambush of Teutoburg left a divided Europe up to recent days ? I can post that and much more. But with regards to the stock market really I don't know what else to post with regards to the LT except that any bearish bias is currently wrong I believe. 


Edited by andr99, 29 November 2022 - 11:35 AM.

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#2 fib_1618

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Posted 29 November 2022 - 02:21 PM

To those that were selectively chosen in this post...should I say it?

 

Hmmmm...maybe I should leave well enough alone, huh?

 

Agreed.

 

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#3 jesteronyer6

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Posted 29 November 2022 - 02:25 PM

I thought I saw a post where you said you didn't trade stocks?


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#4 andr99

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Posted 29 November 2022 - 03:39 PM

sorry I don't get that ''maybe I should leave well enough alone''.....what does it mean ?  

 

as for the stocks, if it was directed to me, I only trade stocks. Usually those of my domestic stock market, but this time also of the American one  

 

as for my comment, I was just saying that I believe so much that we have turned the corner and the one.year bear is over, that I have nothing more to say. Just sitting on the long side and waiting. I always write my comments a little bit joking, but I tend to be respectful of other opinions, at least most of the times, so that my comments must be intended as I'm saying.

 

Ah....I said Americans because almost everyone here is American I believe.......it was like saying....everybody except me. America has always had my respect. 


Edited by andr99, 29 November 2022 - 03:45 PM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#5 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 29 November 2022 - 04:09 PM

Let me offer this. While the market has been acting a lot like a Bull, I think it's possibly a cyclical Bull within a Secular Bear.

 

We are coming off some pretty excessive Bearishness, and I think that can fuel more of a rally (though perhaps after a correction shortly), BUT, there's still interest in stocks and that probably has to be beaten out of the market before the ultimate end.

 

Take a peek at the chart below. I think margin debt and equity allocations are going to need to be appreciably lower.

AllocationVsSurveyedSentiment11-25-22.jpg

I also think that NAAIM will be heavily net short before the ultimate end.

 

But near term we probably have more rally coming.

 

 


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#6 linrom1

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Posted 29 November 2022 - 05:20 PM

So you wouldn't be interested?

 

 Today, 11:57 AM

Avi Gilburt will be giving a presentation tomorrow afternoon for the Money Show as to his view regarding a long-term bear market.  If you would like to join, please register within the link provided below.

Have We Begun A Decade-Long Bear Market?

 

https://online.money...q/?scode=058504

 

 



#7 pdx5

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Posted 29 November 2022 - 08:31 PM

Let me offer another opinion on where stock market is headed next.

And that opinion is nobody knows for sure. If they knew, they would not have time to post.

 

My WAG is a repeat of my previous FF. Bullish bias in December & January. After that wear protective gear.


Edited by pdx5, 29 November 2022 - 08:32 PM.

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#8 andr99

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Posted 30 November 2022 - 07:27 AM

my personal bet is that there will be a correction in early 2023, but then the uptrend will resume and I will start to worry when the dax is at 18500-19000 at the end of 2023 or later. Similar path for American indexes I believe 


Edited by andr99, 30 November 2022 - 07:30 AM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard