Still getting my brain strapped into the data after xmas break but here's some things I see, that need deeper discussion/analysis
- bonds/dollar is scaring me a bit here, they are not acting right for our position in the Kitchin cycle and overall technical position - it's ain't end of the world YET, but
it is possibly the beginning of it if it's not just EOY related. (but DOES fit with my view of 20+ year of K-cycle i've been dead on right and Juglar tbd)
- Alot of EndofYear 'stuff' going on: X-games as I call it ..I won't read much into last week or so, need to see 1st week of Jan for better read
- Never seen so many data anomalies in my life - this is not normal ... its sorta 4/5 S.D from normal....too early again to say what it means ... could be as simple as lack of It workers to keep stuff working right... but
I am so much data I simply DROP anything that's suspect and only use data that doesn't have massive anomalies - interestingly, those two data sets totally disagree here, hmm ..that
smells a bit like a Psy op to me ..but time will tell
- We had a pretty big spike in SHORTING last few sessions and needed to clear some out - hence bounce today or for a bit here.
- The Trend on IT is Down, the Model signals remain Sell - these are counter trend bounces
- It's a Bear market(comp leading), we aren't close to the low ..we need a capitulation leg - the real question in 2023 as i've said is - Is it a 'cycle' bear market similar to 1973/1974 2000-2002, 2007-2009 - or a PRIMARY degree bear
market last of which was 1929-1942/49 .(no not 1932: 1929 to 1942/9 was Primary 2 or 4 ...Primary 3 or 5 wave 1942/9 to 2021 ...we are likely in Primary Bear Degree 4 (if we are lucky LOL) from now to say 2035 ...or, well,
I won't go there ... we need to be able to sleep at night. Confirmation of primary degree bear breaking of 2020 low and or new lows after 2024. ..long way off...but the setup is amazing.
- On the relative short term - I am still looking for lower low after current bounces, at least to 3700 Spx, could be a Swing up there tbd ...then down toward 3600 area.
- As it stands now - Model is leaning toward the SPX lows holding in Jan - then another long IT bounce up into Feb/March ....data could change, so put that in 'disclaimer - ville' - but i've had road maps for a year we
are still following that agree .... if so, THAT will be the LAST chance for Retail investors to get out before capitulation leg ...those in tech as I said won't get out, and we are back at lows so they didn't .
I'm sure i've missed a few thoughts but catches up to current action.
My biggest observation of 2022 is - most don't understand the CONTEXT here, and so are operating under 'business as usual' reasoning, but, this is NOT business as usual, its' very far from it, and 2023 will prove that,
buckle up :-)
Edited by EntropyModel, 29 December 2022 - 01:32 PM.
