Was October the start of a new bull market?

If the Fed's rate policy doesn't crush growth, the labor market stays strong, and inflation continues to cool,

then the economy can avoid a recession, Cox said. 

Should this transpire, that would mean the market already reached its low in October 2022

and a bull market is already underway, she explained.

We can have a Bull within the secular Bear.

I think we may be in a market analogous to the '69-'74 secular Bear. At least I'm open to the possibility.

https://stockcharts....xes.html#stocks

We can have a Bull within the secular Bear.

I think we may be in a market analogous to the '69-'74 secular Bear. At least I'm open to the possibility.

https://stockcharts....xes.html#stocks

Is tech in bull market? 4 month after this 'bull' began ...comp just retested those lows!

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzc4NTI3OF8yMDgzMDk1Mw

 

If the Fed's rate policy doesn't crush growth, the labor market stays strong, and inflation continues to cool,

then the economy can avoid a recession, Cox said. 

 

Should this transpire, that would mean the market already reached its low in October 2022

and a bull market is already underway, she explained.

 

Callie Cox

 

I heard the same in 2007 - then in 2008 all these 'experts' tried to claim 'no one could see it coming' - yep, I did, on THIS board..many now claim they did, um, I was there, its

similar to now that's all i'll say.

I like to say 'Logic swims in a pool of assumptions' - the faulty assumption made here, is to believe 'economy' is the same economy as history (2008 should have woke them up it isn't but CB used QE to fool them),

This is  NOT same 'economy' - it wasn't by 2007, and it definitely isn't now - it's closer to a computer simulation economy if u understand it.

This means, using economic data will, like 2007, not work because its a DERIVITIVE of the simulation economy - downstream, after the fact ...backward looking if you like.

Put it simply - the FED run the economy like a simulation via QE/QT and other mechanisms, and that dominates the 'real economy', at least until we reach 'price equilibrium' - which if far off ...there can be some delay as now,

but I don't believe it can be stopped - this are known as 'virtuous and vicious cycles' - unless FED annoucement another 6 trillion QE ...we are going to roll over in 2023, as I say its math ...but we are in a predictable pause

right now I went over in October.  

The FEd in my view are following a plan to begin the financial reset, which, as laid out a year ago means forcing rates higher (by inaction during 2021) - and they will continue to force overshoot as part of that objective, using

the cover of 'inflation' they created by 6 trillion QE and inaction in 2021.

Edited by EntropyModel, 16 January 2023 - 04:50 PM.

We can have a Bull within the secular Bear.

I think we may be in a market analogous to the '69-'74 secular Bear. At least I'm open to the possibility.

https://stockcharts....xes.html#stocks

 

 

BTW SCHD has been a good substitute for those invest in SPY long term

Edited by Chilidawgz, 16 January 2023 - 05:30 PM.

Chilidawgz, SCHD is fascinating.   I don't understand how SCHD generates its current 3.29% yield.  When you look at the yield of its top 15 holdings which accounts for more than half of the fund they don't come close to yielding this much.  SCHD must have a lot of higher yielding stuff in its smaller holdings.  I thought maybe they wrote call options against holdings, but the prospective says it's a passive fund, and there is no mention of them doing anything fancy to generate yield. 

Since the relative strength low in the summer of 2020, SCHD definitely has outperformed SPY, but in a 10 year look back, SPY has come out on top most of the time.  The current large tech wreck seems to be hitting SPY harder. 

Anyway, thanks for bring it to my attention.

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Chilidawgz, 17 January 2023 - 02:54 PM.

and I'm out