FED tilts, WSJ - MARKET again near STRONG RESISTANCE: HUGE RALLY if resistance taken ou

BARRON'S: U.S. economic data toward the end of the week may have the biggest impact on markets.

The fourth-quarter gross domestic product figure Thursday should provide an update on the chances of the U.S. avoiding a recession.

The Feds preferred inflation metriccore personal consumption expenditures (PCE)due Friday, is most likely to shape the central banks thinking around the future path of interest rates. A further slowdown in inflation would be cheered by markets and tip the scales in favor of putting an end to rate hikes sooner.

20 yr...Divergent low at the 200 day???

 

see how this develops over next few days...

 

 The Nasdaq-100 delivers an average return of 51% in the first positive year following a loss, with a minimum gain of 37% across the four instances in 1991, 2003, 2009, and 2019.

Well I was expecting more overnight to add to my short but didn't get it so still have my short at 3975 in play.  Was hoping for a crash but I guess there were to many bears over the weekend so I guess have to wait a bit longer.  The 10-year has moved back into its 3.50-4.00 range so we'll see where it goes from there but the higher it goes in yield from here I don't think the market will do well!!  Wait to see what the cash market brings I guess as were pretty quiet so far, grind grind grind!!!

Looking at options this morning and calls are way overpriced for the weekly's and about even for this coming Feb. cycle but still leaning a bit to bullish for call premium.  My numbers came out on the low side for the Feb cycle so I would assume we could see a sharp spike downward sometime but maybe that'll wait until were in February...One thing all around is I'm noticing premium has dried up a bit as volatility has been so quiet of late so I would assume that at the least it is going to kick up a bit for this week as institutions get in there sell's.  For now though in the end we all know its still within the grind so does it all really matter.

 

 The Nasdaq-100 delivers an average return of 51% in the first positive year following a loss, with a minimum gain of 37% across the four instances in 1991, 2003, 2009, and 2019.

 

You failed to mention Naz went down nearly 80% over multiple years before that big gain in 2003...

And about 56% in 2009

 

And one could argue that the Covid funny money bubble dwarfed the 2000 episode as far as speculation goes.

Edited by K Wave, 23 January 2023 - 09:29 AM.

Got that right K and that's the period of trading were in now lol!  Anyhow, with that pop added to my short now at 3980...Why isn't it looking like a crash that everyone was predicting, oh right,,,,, it was because everyone was predicting it...

And here I was talkking about the market being quiet lol!!  Average short 3990, might just get 4000 today lol!! 

GS still dramatically under performing this AM...340 is really big level...

BRK with the back test...what happens next could decide the whole enchilada...