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Risk Windows & A Faustian Bargain


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#1 Douglas

Douglas

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Posted 18 March 2023 - 04:38 PM

According to my risk summation system, the days over the next week or so with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday March 20th, Wednesday the 22nd and Monday March 27th.  The risk windows pattern does suggest that the Wednesday the 22nd risk window might possibly drag out into early Thursday morning.

 

Last week the Monday risk window was a dud when its low was broken, but the Wednesday risk window may have tagged an important low depending on action this coming week.

 

The latest crash risk window closes this coming Wednesday March 22nd.  I believe that the next one doesn't show its ugly face until sometime this fall.

 

x8xmAuH.jpg

 

This past week the Fed made a Faustian bargain with latter day Mephistopheles aka bankers.  Like in  Goethe's tale, this little deal with the devil at the crossroads of finance too will almost certainly end in tragedy, only the timing is in question.  QE on steroids was used to shore up the banking system which basically wiped out half of the balance sheet reduction achieved so far.   The Fed needs to come clean this coming week in the presser and just admit upfront that their inflation fight will always take a backseat to any banking, stock market, unemployment, etc., etc. crisis that might arise.  The money hose will be directed full flow onto any flaming situation instead of the just smouldering inflation.

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 



#2 Douglas

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Posted 19 March 2023 - 02:03 PM

Regardless of your favorite flavor of DJIA weekly trend line, lime, blueberry or cherry, they all seem to say support should be here or near.  Break them and the bottom should fall out.  Pun intended, you can bank on it (at Credit Suisse that is).

 

5tNFbPZ.jpg

 

Regards,

Douglas