New BULL MARKET - RATE HUKE cycle ends

Yeah, new BULL MARKET, TARGET SPX 4400 initially
But this will be a bumpy one, very volatile, huge swings.
Am FLAT except TLT CALLS, UVXY PUTS

FED again erring but market ignoring them and will rally. FED will quickly reverse course or risk overtightening.

From Sentimentrader Lite Newsletter: Yields cycle from an uptrend to a downtrend from an uptrend to a downtrend
Key points:

The percentage of Treasury yields above their 200-day average cycled from 100% to 0%
After similar reversals, yields declined across most time frames consistently
Stocks were a little soft in the next few weeks but then recovered and enjoyed healthy returns
Treasury yields cycle from an uptrend to a downtrend

For the first time since 2019, the percentage of Treasury yields (1 to 10 years) above their 200-day average cycled from 100% to 0%. The abrupt trend reversal occurred in only one session, which had never happened before now.

Let's assess the outlook for interest rates and stocks when the percentage of Treasury yields above their 200-day average cycles from 100% to 0%. To isolate historical precedents like now, I will include a condition requiring the 10-year yield to close at a 2-year high before a new alert can trigger again.


What the research tells us...

Interest rates increased at one of the fastest paces in history over the last 14 months. The recent shift in Treasury yields from above to below their respective 200-day averages could be a market message that the rate environment is turning more favorable. After similar changes, interest rates tend to decline further, benefiting stocks across medium and long-term horizons. The tricky part is determining whether the shot across the bow is a warning that the economy is heading toward a hard landing. Given the challenging market backdrop, holding some additional cash in a 1-year T-Bill seems appropriate.

SENTIMENT TRADER LITE NEWSLETTER:
Financial corporate insiders pick a side in the financial crisis
Key points

Talk of a "banking/financial crisis" has dominated the business news in recent weeks
Fear of bank run "contagion" is a hot topic among pundits
Meanwhile, financial corporate insiders have been voting with their wallets
Financial corporate insiders go on a buying spree

I don't use corporate insider transactions as specific buy or sell signals. I typically view them as a "perspective" tool. If insiders act bullish, this almost invariably argues for higher prices over the next three to three years. But the recent action of financial company corporate insiders is quite compelling.

Silicon Valley Bank failed a week ago and was seized by the government. A tidal wave of pundits announcing the onset of the next great "financial crisis" bellow daily from the airwaves. And in the end, they could be right. But the people who know the finance industry best acted in an entirely different way.

The chart below displays Corporate Insider Buys among component companies of the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLF) and denotes those times when the indicator crossed above 39.9. Note the sharp uptick in buying over the past two weeks. The question that comes to mind is, "if these executives perceived that the banking system was about to collapse - why would they start buying their stocks aggressively?"


What the research tells us

Anytime a significant bank runs into trouble, there is the risk of contagion and that more banks - and potentially the entire banking/finance system - will suffer. So, there is a potential risk in the market now. However, the actions of financial corporate insiders in light of recent events appear to fly in the face of the daily panic and gloom from market pundits. Instead of dumping massive amounts of stock holdings to insulate themselves from the "coming collapse," they instead went on something of a buying spree. The most reasonable interpretation is that the people who know financial company prospects the best are confident that the worst case will not unfold.

FED again erring but market ignoring them and will rally. FED will quickly reverse course or risk overtightening.

From Sentimentrader Lite Newsletter: Yields cycle from an uptrend to a downtrend from an uptrend to a downtrend
Key points:

The percentage of Treasury yields above their 200-day average cycled from 100% to 0%
After similar reversals, yields declined across most time frames consistently
Stocks were a little soft in the next few weeks but then recovered and enjoyed healthy returns
Treasury yields cycle from an uptrend to a downtrend

For the first time since 2019, the percentage of Treasury yields (1 to 10 years) above their 200-day average cycled from 100% to 0%. The abrupt trend reversal occurred in only one session, which had never happened before now.

Let's assess the outlook for interest rates and stocks when the percentage of Treasury yields above their 200-day average cycles from 100% to 0%. To isolate historical precedents like now, I will include a condition requiring the 10-year yield to close at a 2-year high before a new alert can trigger again.


What the research tells us...

Interest rates increased at one of the fastest paces in history over the last 14 months. The recent shift in Treasury yields from above to below their respective 200-day averages could be a market message that the rate environment is turning more favorable. After similar changes, interest rates tend to decline further, benefiting stocks across medium and long-term horizons. The tricky part is determining whether the shot across the bow is a warning that the economy is heading toward a hard landing. Given the challenging market backdrop, holding some additional cash in a 1-year T-Bill seems appropriate.

"What the research tells us...

On a shorter-term basis, sentiment has quickly dipped back toward pessimism. But that's part of a larger pattern since last summer and fall. When we take a longer-term look at how the price action has unfolded, it has cycled from almost the opposite of what happens when investors are becoming confident to more so. While that didn't prevent some quick failures long ago, since 1950, similar behavior has led almost universally to gains over the medium- to long-term.

The past month has understandably generated angst, as it has exceeded prior reactions at the beginnings of new bull markets, which is a worry. But the longer-term pattern still looks similar to other periods of prolonged unease followed by returning confidence, which has a good record at preceding gains."


https://sentimentrader.com/

Another one jumps on BULL wagon, smart people who are prepared to change opinions etc, very important in TRADING to move with the flow, up or down:

Buy Signals Trigger As Market Rallies On Not QE.

Buy Signals Trigger But Bank Crisis Weighs

Despite concerns of a banking crisis, the markets triggered multiple buy signals as the market rallied for a second week.

These buy signals follow our early February article discussing the sell signals at that time.

That commentary remains vital as our primary short-term sell indicator has triggered for the first time since early December. Such has previously provided excellent signals of corrections and rallies. The chart below is courtesy of SimpleVisor.com and shows our proprietary money-flow indicator and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signal.

While that sell signal does NOT mean the market is about to crash, it does suggest that over the next couple of weeks to months, the market will likely consolidate or trade lower. Such is why we reduced our equity risk last week ahead of the Fed meeting.
https://realinvestme...llies-on-not-qe

Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) tweeted at 0:13 PM on Sat, Mar 25, 2023:
Have a great weekend! All March, #ES_F has built a base & its taken the form of a clean, bullish inverse head & shoulders

Plan Next Week: 3983, 3955 (right shoulder) are supports. As long as RS holds, rally to 4060-70, dip, breakout to 4130 in play. Pattern fails <3955 & we sell https://t.co/n5Gj1iS4Zd

Dougie Kass (@DougKass) tweeted at 0:08 PM on Fri, Mar 24, 2023:
@realmoney Looking at the Brighter Side
* And one of the reasons I have moved to a modest net long exposure
* Reject "group stink" and emotion when trading and investing.
In a perverse or ironic way the regional banking industry crisis has served to do the work of the Fed
- lowering open market rates and suggesting that stocks could stabilize or move a bit higher.
The rapidity and magnitude of the Fed's rate rise - especially when the two year yield hit 5% - resulted in an acceleration in deposit betas, reducing the propensity for banks to lend

Later, a busy Asian & European session tonight.
CAVEAT: GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS can derail bull or bear markets

Helene Meisler (@hmeisler) tweeted at 1:01 PM on Sat, Mar 25, 2023:
The results are in and folks are cautiously optimistic. For the 2nd time in 4 weeks you guys have voted UP.

Thanks so much for participating! https://t.co/l9ujaiwISH

Topic header typo: HIKE
not HUKE

Nasdaq 7-mth high

"The NASDAQ Is Eyeing A Major Breakout Level
Tom Bowley | March 26, 2023 at 11:53 AM
Ultimately, breaking out above the August 2022 high represents the key level to reverse the downtrend that began in early-January 2022. I like to use longer-term charts to determine whether we're currently trending higher or lower, and right now the downtrend is firmly in place:



The numbers on the above chart identify the lower highs and lower lows that remain in play. Until we clear that August high, the price chart remains bearish. The problem is that if you wait until the long-term price chart turns bearish in a cyclical bear market (January through October 2022), you ride at least half, if not more, of the downtrend. The same holds true when bottoms form. If we're waiting for price confirmation - clearing overhead price resistance a little below 340 - we will have missed the first 30% or more of the move higher.

That's why I do what I do. The price chart only tells us so much. We must be aware of the "under the surface" signals taking place to truly understand the likelihood of a market advance of decline. Despite the clear downtrend on the chart above, I'm VERY BULLISH and have been since June 2022"

https://stockcharts....major-b-43.html