Home prices

Median home prices are up 32% in 2 years, a parabolic move not seen ever as far as I can tell by looking at the chart, this type of move usually takes 8-10 years.

Is this going to crash to revert to the mean now?

Edited by CLK, 09 July 2022 - 06:42 AM.

Is this going to crash to revert to the mean now?

 

Given that COVID shut downs and restrictions forced acute economic changes to the Capitalistic system in how we do business, I would say not. But, in reality, it's really too soon to know for sure until those currently in charge are replaced with leaders who have a more favorable opinion (core values) towards how things were before this unfortunate human event took place.

 

Fib

"those currently in charge" are not visible but are getting exactly what they have planed! Their list is long and unfinished.

 

Edited by Rogerdodger, 09 July 2022 - 11:02 AM.

Since this was basically a Fed induced post Covid bubble, it's all going to revert to pre-Covid levels
minimum, that includes SPX.
All you have to do is look at charts of stocks like PTON, ZM, RDFN, Z to see where this is going.

Some say with rising high inflation, home prices will continue to go up just like they did in the 70's. The problem though, is that unlike today, home prices were roughly inline with the inflation rate then, today they are way above the inflation rate, just like in 2006. So, inflation would have to skyrocket from these levels now to close the gap, or home prices will crash again. Can you really see 15-20% CPI soon? I guess anything is possible, but home contract deals are falling through at a fast pace right now.

Here is a link to an article with the
HPI v CPI chart near the end.


https://reventurecon...housing-bubble/

Edited by CLK, 12 July 2022 - 08:05 AM.

Homebuyers canceling deals at highest rate since pandemic...

 

The share of sale agreements on existing homes canceled in June was just under 15% of all homes that went under contract, according to a new report from Redfin.

Homebuilders are also seeing higher cancellation rates.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 12 July 2022 - 11:17 AM.

This video is from last year, but it covers the crash of Zillow and their
immediate price reductions on homes they recently purchased starting last October as further evidence that they see a housing bubble top soon.

Edited by CLK, 12 July 2022 - 01:49 PM.

Here is another good video on the
California housing market.