spx

down to 3900....bounce to 4000 then resumption of the downtrend..........an FF

based on what ?

down to 3900....bounce to 4000 then resumption of the downtrend..........an FF

3903

based on what ?

a pattern my experience tells me...

bounce target 4030 more or less......in other words three up bars

You guys are saying we put in some sort of intermediate term bottom today?  So the backtest of this trend line will not be followed by further downside, the trend will be recovered and this will turn out to be a fake break?

if you look at the down leg that occurred from 29th of March till 16th of June you understand everything. This correction we are watching now is a repetition of that. Currently we are in the 18th of April point of the pattern 

this leg down will stress all the bulls calling the market bottom

Edited by andr99, 01 September 2022 - 03:30 PM.

if this correction too is gonna last two months and a half, that means the mid term election rally won' t take hold and a tradable bottom might occurr in mid November, in time for the start of the year end rally......which will be just another bounce in a downtrend.  

Edited by andr99, 01 September 2022 - 03:58 PM.

Thanks for the dates and shared wisdom - appreciated.

yes but I have miscalculated the date for the bottom.......if we rhyme the down leg I said we have two months and a half to drop. But we have already spent a half month dropping (this is what I didn' t consider in my previous post), so that there's just two months remaining, which thing leads to the start of November for the bottom. Now, given that this bearish leg seems to be quicker than the one that it rhymes, probably similar in the form, but more compressed in time, I think the bottom might come earlier than I wrote, possibly in October. We might have two or three weeks for the mid term election rally if that happens. Just my thoughts.....