The Bearish "Tell".

It's pretty obvious somebody knew the CPI data was going to disappoint. And that shouldn't surprise.

The useful takeaway is that there was a "tell" in the VIX yesterday, as I mentioned. Up 4.74% in a dandy rally. I'm not sure I'd want to trade those with the futures, but a speculation in the options looks like a useful strategy.

The might have to kill the economy to rid this inflation. Fair value is SPX 3800 with rates this high.

They might have to kill DESTROY the economy to rid this inflation.

 

Fair value is SPX 3800 with rates this high.

Excuse my taking liberties in slightly changing your opinion.

And, yes, 3800 is currently the minimal downside price target…10 year yield to 4%.
 

Fib

The might have to kill the economy to rid this inflation. Fair value is SPX 3800 with rates this high.

The rumors of economy's death are highly exaggerated. Lets look at some facts.

>> Corporations can't find enough workers! There is surplus of jobs over available workers to fill them

>> Unemployent is non-exitent. Anyone who wants to work can find 3 jobs.

>> Biden just passed $20,000 cash gift to students with loans. Those Billions will be spent, not stashed into a saving accounts.

>> The inflation reduction act (???) is another spending splurge by the government. This is like giving more cocaine to a person already high.

>> Cash levels in corporate coffers are bulging at the seems. 

>> Consumers are spending with credit cards. Those are not yet maxxed out.

Another 3/4% rate hike by FED will only affect stock prices for a few days. Everthing else keeps rolling along.

 

The might have to kill the economy to rid this inflation. Fair value is SPX 3800 with rates this high.

 

Another 3/4% rate hike by FED will only affect stock prices for a few days. Everything else keeps rolling along.

Famous last words...all rear view mirror stuff that has no bearing on the future direction of stock prices.

Fib

What will Fib say if stocks drop 10% from here? (in 60 days or less)

I always want to include my time frame. Otherwise the FF is not worth the paper it is written on.

Lastly, the money bills passed are not past, it is future spending coming up.

Edited by pdx5, 13 September 2022 - 01:00 PM.

What will Fib say if stocks drop 10% from here? (in 60 days or less)

I always want to include my time frame. Otherwise the FF is not worth the paper it is written on.

Lastly, the money bills passed are not past, it is future spending coming up.

Here is one for ya...Once it takes out 154 pivot, wildly overvalued, 2% growth rate Apple is going to hit that 200 month MA within next couple years.

I'll leave to you to figure out where SP might be at that point....

Think it can't happen?

What will Fib say if stocks drop 10% from here? (in 60 days or less)

I always want to include my time frame. Otherwise the FF is not worth the paper it is written on.

Lastly, the money bills passed are not past, it is future spending coming up.

I make my market opinions ABSOLUTELY crystal clear for ALL time frames over on the Market Analysis Board…take some of your precious time and review the wealth of technical information that’s provided there each week at NO CHARGE!

As always, questions are encouraged if you’re having any issues understanding the concept.

Fib

kill the economy to rid this inflation

Inflation soared to 13% in Phoenix last month, a record for any US city in data going back 20 years and more than twice as high as San Francisco.

• US Inflation Tops Forecasts, Cementing Odds of Big Fed Hike

• The World’s Hottest Housing Markets Are Facing a Painful Reset

• Nasdaq 100’s Dive Tops 5% as Yields Surge Post-CPI: Markets Wrap

Edited by Rogerdodger, 13 September 2022 - 03:25 PM.