Are all the bears SHORT?

The NYSE Composite finally broke below 14,000 support and it's monthly 50 ma
The monthly 200 is waiting below at 10,000.
It has touched it 3 times since 2008

https://schrts.co/TdMGmBnm

There are a lot of bears but are they short?

For a month the #1 ranked contributor at Stockcharts has been saying: "It's probably too late to short"

TBF (Short 20 year Treasury) is exploding but lookiing a bit toppy.

https://schrts.co/uChajeXm

Meanwhile Mike Burk says:

"Seasonally, this negative period ends in a few weeks."

Edited by Rogerdodger, 23 September 2022 - 11:19 AM.

Totally agree, investors going short now are just asking for trouble if you ask me.  I do believe we have way more to go on the downside but its not gonna be a straight line this time.  Think your way better to average in long now as we move into October.....

Gene Inger used to say to avoid "shorting into the hole"

Keep in mind US Treasuries have already responded to rate increases by FED. 

10 year bonds were hovering around 2.2% for a long time. Now it is 3.6% yield.

That is about 40% change.

Stocks (SPX) was at 4800, now at 3700. That is about 23% drop.

Stocks have some more drop to go to catch up with bonds.

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Edited by Rogerdodger, 23 September 2022 - 11:14 AM.

Keep in mind US Treasuries have already responded to rate increases by FED. 

You have that backwards.

The Fed has responded to interest rate increases, just have they have been doing up and down for a long while now.

And they are still a full point behind.

Was how I was 100% sure they would not stop in August, as some others opined.

Only a market crash might keep them from raising more in very early November.

 

Keep in mind US Treasuries have already responded to rate increases by FED. 

You have that backwards.

 

The Fed has responded to interest rate increases, just have they have been doing up and down for a long while now.

And they are still a full point behind.

 

Was how I was 100% sure they would not stop in August, as some others opined.

 

Only a market crash might keep them from raising more in very early November.

 

FED is cornered like a rat with inflation not budging. If inflation continues higher than 8% through December, 

FED will increase rates this year, there is no doubt in my mind about it, even if market makes lower lows than in June.

Stock market crash (meaning greater than 5% drop in one day) is unlikely. 2% drop is about all on any one day.