FED: 25pt hike +"potential pause"

May be you guys don't shop groceries, don't pay auto repair bills, don't use medical services, don't pay home insurance bills, don't need dental services and don't eat in good restaurants couple of times every week.

I do all of above and I am feeling inflation deep in my gut.

Even Lowes prices for all merchandise are crazy inflated. Those are mostly discretionary items.

Agree with u pdx5 - if anything inflation is blipping up a bit again last 1-2 month on stuff I buy.

I highly doubt a 'rate cut' by July, it's going to be hard to justify with inflation well above 2% ... if anything, bonds may yet sell off again and effectively raise rates especially on 20-30 year long end.

..it unclear right now but patterns lean that way.

Plus the clear Plan by FED was to create this crises, so they are not going to do anything 'sensible' now they managed to create it, they will use 'FED speak' to jusifiy making as it as bad as possible, to as

usual get what they want (like 2008 to get QE ) ... a move toward digital $ is clearly part of it...but much more I wd say. ..and part of what I have to say on that is up here 

https://rumble.com/v...k-davidson.html

(rest of long interview on site https://strongandfre...rg/truthcast/).

Edited by EntropyModel, 04 May 2023 - 12:55 PM.

Even Lowes prices for all merchandise are crazy inflated.

I went in to Lowes this week for a 3" x 10' PVC thin-wall drain pipe which was $12 last time...now $29!

Don't even ask about schedule 40. Fittings are equally outrageous.

Do you think plumbers have raised their prices to compensate?

Swimming pool chlorine is $200 for a 5g bucket. 1/2 that size is $175, not 1/2 price,

I guy down the isle was in shock just looking at water well pump prices.

They usually have one cashier and he, she, it they are manning managing  the self-checkout kiosk.

Let's save America by closing it down!

Edited by Rogerdodger, 04 May 2023 - 01:30 PM.

 

Even Lowes prices for all merchandise are crazy inflated.

 

I went in to Lowes this week for a 3" x 10' PVC thin-wall drain pipe which was $12 last time...now $29!

Don't even ask about schedule 40. Fittings are equally outrageous.

Do you think plumbers have raised their prices to compensate?

Swimming pool chlorine is $200 for a 5g bucket. 1/2 that size is $175, not 1/2 price,

 

I guy down the isle was in shock just looking at water well pump prices.

 

They usually have one cashier and he, she, it they are manning managing  the self-checkout kiosk.

 

Let's save America by closing it down!

 

Yeah but more basic stuff like I dunno'  - like rent and food is already WAY PAST the ability of 50%+ of population to afford, so even if 'inflation' went to zero, we will still get a massive consumer

 led recession by 2024 from this ...which I don't know how/why most are ignoring this reality ..Ah that's it ...they ignore reality LOL .... and FYI - inflation is NOT going to zero any time soon ..so

do the math.

  I will say, I think alot of 'price premium or GOUGING is going on stuff I track - I buy ALOT online and track it easily ..and frankly I think there is alot of 'trying it on' to see what buyers

will buy ...so I see sudden price drops when they go too far ...so on SOME items that are more economically elastic we WILL see and I am price drops ...but the items that matter most is RENT then

FOOD then 'basic bills' - electric, phone, internet etc ...until THEY go down ..a massive  Iceburg has already hit the 'Titianic' economy , most are still blissfully unaware and dancing as usual.

Edited by EntropyModel, 04 May 2023 - 03:03 PM.

Ah yes,  who could possibly foresee Bank problems when

 - Banks refused to offer yields above 1% when Money Market offering 4+% = massive shift out of banks to MM

https://www.zerohedg...un-accelerating

The real question as I raised 6+month ago - why werent' banks offering this increase? and why weren't people up in arms ? - 2nd part is now occurring.

Were banks just being greedy? or as I hear it - is it because the FED set them up to fail by keeping rates at 0% for 20 years (ZIRP) and getting banks addicted and loan policy to that, then

suddenly increasing ..and banks couldn't adjust.

I'm sure the 'MATRIX' of disinformation the MSM+internet  will tell again say - no one could see the consequence of 1+1=2 .. - its like 2007 when I said a massive housing crash would occur, posted that work here with a 300 year study and no one believed the math - and then was told 'no one could see that coming' LOL 

Anyone who understand math including the FED knew IF Rates  RAPIDLY increased - it would cause bank collapses ..I mean, this is there actual business they aren't some bystanders going 'I wonder how banks work', they

run the discount window etc!

I can also use math, as I did over a year ago to predict what happens next -  get ready for a massive wave of business failures and defaults due to incorrect credit models using future value of present money formula (FYI - built credit models for a living once .)  ..no doubt, MSM and 'analysts' will tell us 'no one can see that coming' ... its boggles the mind the b.s. people will swallow.  

Edited by EntropyModel, 04 May 2023 - 04:21 PM.

Who would lend their own money fixed at 2.5-3.5% for 30-years when these two things were present:

1) Rates at their lowest in recorded history.

2) Fed pre-announced well in advance that QE will stop and instead of buying mortgage paper they will begin to sell (QT).

Edited by linrom1, 04 May 2023 - 05:07 PM.

Nice charts. I love looking over a trader's shoulder.

Thanx

 

 

FYI - I got way too many charts ...here's a few  around the KISS principle for Swing moves - 

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODE5MTkyNF8yMTM5ODU3Mw

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODE5MTkzMl8yMTM5ODU4MQ

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODE5MTkzOV8yMTM5ODU4OA

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODE5MTk0NF8yMTM5ODU5Mw

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODE5MTk1Ml8yMTM5ODYwMQ

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODE5MTk1Nl8yMTM5ODYwNQ

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODE5MTk1N18yMTM5ODYwNg

keeping rates at 0% for 20 years

 

.

Most of the "kids" I see working in the banks never knew anything else but that.

I remember getting around 9% on an internet bank checking account.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 04 May 2023 - 08:43 PM.

Entropy makes a good point which does not get emphasized enough.

All these inflation-based raises workers and social security gizzers received will NOT go down if inflation goes down to zero.

That wage inflation is permanent causing, as you said, 50% of people can't afford basic stuff. People are buying food with credit cards and not paying full charges every month.  Even mass Layoffs will not reduce wages for union workers. Which includes government unions.

Google, Meta type outfits do not create wealth like manufacturing does. Apple does make products but in China!

And those are the mega cap stocks now. I am so happy to be burning 83 candles. I think my life saw the best time to be alive.

AI is going to save us? HAHAHA I just updated Microsoft  windows 10 with the over 95th update. Microsoft is the leader in AI.

If they need hundred updates in simple non-AI software, how bad will be their AI software?

AI is going to save us? HAHAHA

Steve Wozniak: If You Want to Learn About AI Killing People, "Get a Tesla"
The Woz is at it again.