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MARKETS BULLISH, but I am " SELL IN MAY" MODE...BUFFET BEARISH?


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 04:32 PM

Markets bullish again, not overwhelmingy so, but rallying in a bearish environment. I closed LONgs on Friday & started a new SHORT POSITION.

IMPORTANT factors are DEBT LIMIT issue, WEAKNESS IN REGIONAL BANK sector, "SELL IN MAY seasonality, major earnings season almost over, and WARREN BUFFET thinks his companies' earnings may be worse than previous 6 months.

I will gradually build this SHORT POSITION but I am still not confident to hold LING OR SHORT POSITIONS for more than a few days.

#2 redfoliage2

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 05:24 PM

Bought on the rumor - Friday's big gains likely due to a rumor circulating on the Street that short selling bank stocks may be banned, and so short sellers likely went covered.  However, so far no short selling bans materialized .....................


Edited by redfoliage2, 07 May 2023 - 05:31 PM.


#3 redfoliage2

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 05:39 PM

Bought on the rumor - Friday's big gains likely due to a rumor circulating on the Street that short selling bank stocks may be banned, and so short sellers likely went covered.  However, so far no short selling bans materialized .....................

But how about selling calls?  I doubt the SEC can have the options market banned ....................................
link to the rumor:
https://beincrypto.c...ling-jp-morgan/

Edited by redfoliage2, 07 May 2023 - 05:45 PM.


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 05:48 PM

Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) tweeted at 6:38 PM on Sun, May 07, 2023:
'Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold billions of dollars worth of stock and invested little money in the US equity market in the first three months of the year, a signal the famed investor saw little appeal in a volatile market.'

https://www.ft.com/c...70-c9c455a159e7

https://t.co/qBiajhLHMJ

#5 dTraderB

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 05:51 PM

Too risky.
Also, SHORTING REGIONAL BANKS VERY RISKY

I prefer SPREADS instead of SELLING CALLS of regional banks.


Bought on the rumor - Friday's big gains likely due to a rumor circulating on the Street that short selling bank stocks may be banned, and so short sellers likely went covered.  However, so far no short selling bans materialized .....................

But how about selling calls?  I doubt the SEC can have the options market banned ....................................
link to the rumor:
https://beincrypto.c...ling-jp-morgan/


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 05:56 PM

Best trade is wait for KRE to make new LOW & BUY CALLS.

BUFFET raising cash, waiting for a more settled market environment and/or another leg down:

Warren Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway dumps billions of dollars of US stocks
Cash pile rises by $2bn to $130.6bn as sprawling conglomerate finds little to spend on....

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https://www.ft.com/c...70-c9c455a159e7

He noted that the effects of the slowing economy were only just beginning to be felt by Berkshire, although he did not paint a dour picture of the economy. Buffett said he expected earnings to decline at the majority of its businesses this year.

It isnt that employment has fallen off a cliff or anything, but it is a different climate than it was six months ago, he said. A number of our managers were surprised. Some had too much inventory on order.

Higher interest rates, however, have also been a boon to Berkshire. The company invests the vast majority of its $130.6bn of cash in short-term Treasury bills and bank deposits.

Income on those short-term bills and cash-like deposits surged to $1.1bn, up from $164mn a year prior...
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https://www.ft.com/c...70-c9c455a159e7

The billionaire investor said Berkshire had grown more cautious about investing in the industry given the rapid deposit flight some banks have suffered.

It is a change from previous crises, when Berkshires capital helped shore up both Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. The latter is now a core holding in the companys stock portfolio.

Buffett declined to say whether it was cutting its position in Activision Blizzard, which it bet heavily on after Microsoft agreed to buy the game-maker. Activision shares have tumbled since UK regulators moved to block the takeover, throwing the arbitrage trade made by Berkshire and a litany of hedge funds into turmoil.

Disclosures have shown that Berkshire increased its stake in Occidental Petroleum during the quarter, however Buffett on Saturday said the company was not planning to take control of the oil company.

Investors will have to wait until later in May to see how the company shifted its portfolio, although its quarterly filing indicated it sold a sizable portion of its stake in oil major Chevron.

Berkshire reported a profit of $35.5bn in the first quarter, or $24,377 per class A share, largely driven by a rally in stocks that lifted the value of its $328bn portfolio of shares. Profit was up from $5.6bn a year before.

#7 dTraderB

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 06:02 PM

I would not say "AAPL is almost a HOSTAGE of CHINA" but I will say AAPL will try to gently ease away from China .... and FAIL, unless it pays a significant "exit fee"

Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) tweeted at 6:49 PM on Sun, May 07, 2023:

'In the race against time, Apple's scramble to reduce dependence on China won't beat the CCP's power to erase most of its value with the stroke of a pen. Investors, take note.'

https://t.co/RR9GGM4qFT

#8 dTraderB

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Posted 07 May 2023 - 06:04 PM

Note there is no TIK TOK in China! Not allowed there in it's homeland. They git the sanitised controlled WEIBO.
" Entente cordiale with the Chinese Communist party affords Apple a charmed existence when it comes to manufacturing and selling products in China. But scary data points keep popping up.

Just in recent weeks, China has sanctioned Lockheed Martin and Raytheon; begun a probe of Micron; raided the due diligence firm Mintz Group and arrested some of its staff; detained 17 Japanese businessmen including a senior member of Astellas Pharma; levied a record fine against Deloitte, and amended its espionage law to cover ordinary business activities.

Notwithstanding all that, during a recent visit to The Middle Kingdom, Tim Cook praised Apples symbiotic relationship.

We could not be more excited, Cook said at the China Development Forum in Beijing, the countrys version of Davos, which Beijing is holding offline for the first time since the pandemic began. Apple and China . . . grew together and so this has been a symbiotic kind of relationship.

Chinese hosts repaid him by staging a standing ovation at Apples Beijing flagship store one of 54. But, to remind him whos boss, Weibo, Chinas state-controlled version of Twitter, juxtaposed his warm welcome with videos of Shou Zi Chew, head of TikTok, being mauled by American lawmakers."

https://www.ft.com/c...cf-2dfe39ec9941

I would not say "AAPL is almost a HOSTAGE of CHINA" but I will say AAPL will try to gently ease away from China .... and FAIL, unless it pays a significant "exit fee"

Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) tweeted at 6:49 PM on Sun, May 07, 2023:

'In the race against time, Apple's scramble to reduce dependence on China won't beat the CCP's power to erase most of its value with the stroke of a pen. Investors, take note.'

https://t.co/RR9GGM4qFT



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 08 May 2023 - 05:45 AM

SPX 3650? Totally WRONG!

BSurveillance (@bsurveillance) tweeted at 6:34 AM on Mon, May 08, 2023:
Michael Purves of Tallbacken Capital Advisors sees the S&P 500 at 3,650 by year end https://t.co/pzcnayfAaNhttps://t.co/WqyEWzgndc

#10 dTraderB

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Posted 08 May 2023 - 05:47 AM

Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) tweeted at 0:30 PM on Sat, May 06, 2023:

Have a great weekend! Sell In May off to a rocky start in #ES_F.
The pattern remains a *textbook* 6 week megaphone.
Support held this week.
Resistance 4235 is now magnet

Plan Next Week: 4138, 4120=supports.
As long as 4120 holds, we fill out megaphone to 4182, 4235.
Detail below https://t.co/HAFp6fF6h8