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SPX monthly outlook - November, 09


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#1 stanley

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Posted 30 October 2009 - 09:54 AM

SPX monthly outlook, November 2009

Rhapsody of November
November is the 11th month of the year in the Gregorian Calendar

Colorful vicissitudes
http://farm4.static....f417d9583_o.jpg
http://farm3.static....17e17f84b_o.jpg

November Outlook in essence
Wait for downside reversal confirmation, an early gauge is to see index dive below 1000-1014; Since index breached 1101 on 11/21, the assault on upper limit 1132, 1158 still canít be ruled out. Upper side breakout gauge is 1109.

October Recap:
The expected secondary event marked a monthly low (1,019.95) on 10/02. The low synchronized with the 109 trading day low. Then, index gapped over the 1074 hurdle on 10/14, and marked the monthly high (1,101.36) on 10/21. The month end pullback might correlate with the third Opposition alignment between Saturn and Uranus opposition (5 alignments in 2008-2010).
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Sep 27 2009, 03:49 PM link
I speculate index may have a milder lower bound attempt and there may be another attempt on the higher bound. The outcome from these attempts set the middle term tone.
For near term, the support remains in 1040-1045, resistant 1065-1074; The early sign for a reversal is to see index dive below 1000-1014. further confirmation is to see index dive below 950-975, better confirmation is to see index drop below 900-915. ... Resistance zone are 1065-1074, 1086-1090

Oct 14 2009, 11:56 AM link
The overall wave looks bullish, the best outcome for bears is a consolidation process. Crash is a rare event. A very preliminary view for the next few months: If the pullback is not lower than 1034-1066, index might challenge 1158, and then 1229.
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when comes to speculation, certain vagueness is to be desired. Let me start with an interesting event: The Leonids meteor shower.

The Leonids meteor shower
reaches its peak around November 17. [ http://en.wikipedia....d_meteor_shower ]

The (uploaded) photograph below is a composite of 30 1-minute exposures taken with a fisheye lens during the Leonid meteor shower in November 2002 from Cape Creus, Spain. Over 70 Leonid meteors are visible here, many of them head on, which makes them look like theyíre coming right at the viewer.
Leo.JPG
photo credit http://www.environme...e-showers/14319
http://www.nasaimage...onids-and-Leica
Image: Juan Carlos Casado and Isabel Graboleda courtesy of nasaimages.org
in public domain - http://inlinethumb23...S600x600Q85.jpg

The total run of the Leonid meteor shower is from about Nov. 14-20. ([url="http://<a%20href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonid_meteor_shower"%20target="_blank">http://en.wikipedia....teor_shower</a>"](Nov 10-21 wikipedia)[/url]
http://www.space.com...nce_021112.html

"On Nov. 17, 2009, we expect the Leonids to produce upwards of 500 meteors per hour," says Bill Cooke of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. "That's a very strong display."
http://science.nasa....leonids2009.htm

Fibonacci - Time Zone
(prior reference)
The time ratio (Green/Blue) reaches 0.5 on 11/13 with +/- days.
ratio_half.JPG


Fibonacci Retracements & Wave

May 10, 10:07 AM
Posted Image

Numbers in the following table came from This chart (Sep 20 2009, 11:35 PM). The noteworthy point is 1066.86, it is the middle point in between 1001.1 an d 1132.7.
Posted Image
The upper limit, 1132.7 is a shocking coincidence with the Saturn Ring ratio projection,
(details). Using the Saturn Ring ratio 0.7194007 with reference frame [1313:667], it comes out 1132 too.
Another coincidence is the peak 1101.36 observed on 11/21. Using Saturn Ring ratio 0.8093579 and 0.7951999, pivotal points are 1103 & 1009, the mean value is 1101.
Extensions
(956-667) * 0.8093579 + 869 = 1103
(956-667) * 0.7951999 + 869 = 1099

In order to probe the middle term trajectory, please refer to this post, Oct 5 2009, 12:20 PM. Two projection made in this post, Oct 24 2009, 02:45 PM . I updated the Long PI multiples table too. Unfortunately, so far the Dar market did not hint whether 04/13/2010 is a high or low
pI2.JPG

#2 stanley

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Posted 31 October 2009 - 04:40 PM

When status quo resembles status quo ante
it is deja vu: a feeling that one has seen or heard something, something overly or unpleasantly familiar.

spx1031.JPG

#3 stanley

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Posted 03 November 2009 - 10:59 AM

There is a cluster of cycles due in October and November. Events in (1)(2) may be good caveats to say the volatile sessions are coming. The size of the impacts canít be quantified can be anticipated through the Fibonacci retracements. (1) 216 trading days from 11/21/08 to 10/02/09 (2 * 109 +/-) As reported in prior posts, this 2 * 109 trading days cycle delivered a secondary event (-2 days). (2) 327 trading days from 07/15/08 to 10/29/09 ( 3 * 109 +/-) A low (1,029.38) was observed on 11/02. It is hard to say at this writing that index already moved out of this particular cycle's time window. (3) 466 trading days from 01/22/08 to 11/23/09 (+/-) 377 * 1.236 = 466. where 377 is a Fibonacci number, it also equals 2 * 60 * PI. 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987........ 2 * 233 = 466. 233 is a Fibonacci prime number. (4) As indicated in Post #1, Fibonacci time zone ratio 0.5 due on 11/13. 110209.JPG

#4 stanley

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Posted 07 November 2009 - 11:10 PM

So far, there is not much deviation from the anticipated trails. Index probed the lower side 1029.83 [nearby secondary Fib is 1034 (in this chart) then bounced off; If pivot 1074 can reject the advance, and when index travels below 1040/1041 again, we may assume there is a 5-wave downward movements in progress. A wild speculation is outlined in the chart below. The numbers in the table serves as a rough guide, donít need to delve into the exactness; The overall status is still dwell in the mist. wait for confirmation.
spx11062009.JPG


Sep 20 2009, 11:35 PM
(three gorges (gauges) zone:) [1000-1014] [950-975] [900-915]

#5 stanley

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Posted 10 November 2009 - 04:22 PM

archived:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nov 7 2009, 08:10 PM (post #4)
The overall status is still dwell in the mist. Wait for confirmation

Oct 30 2009, 06:54 AM (post #1)
Upper side breakout gauge is 1109.

Oct 14 2009, 11:56 AM
http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=487259
S&P500 index 1100 is a major number, ranges 1083-1132.
The overall wave looks bullish; the best outcome for bears is a consolidation process.
A very preliminary view for the next few months: If the pullback is not lower than 1034-1066, index might challenge 1158, and then 1229. There is some tough work for both bulls/bears in the range 1083-1132. The lower range support is 1000-1014 and 960.
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synopsis:
Even though bull is on the upper hand, after a few sessions' high side assault, index marked an intraday high 1,096.42 @ this writing (11/10), it is 12/13 points below the break out gauge. This is a sign of fizzling momentarily. There is no breakout confirmation on both upper side (1107-1109) and lower side (1000/1007/1014).

The middle point in between 1083 & 1132 is 1108
The middle point in between 1000 & 1066 is 1033

Dates to be observed 11/13-16, 11/23-24. (+/-)

Oct 31 2009, 01:40 PM
Chart: http://traders-talk....-1257024947.jpg
Nov 7 2009, 08:10 PM
Chart: http://traders-talk....-1257652063.jpg

#6 stanley

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Posted 14 November 2009 - 10:44 PM

(1) SPX updates - A flock ducks get nowhere

Using the Gap-Up technology, Index plotted the new high 1105.37 on 11/09, thereafter, the momentum fizzled out. However, this duck found the bounced off point 1084.90 on 11/12. Apparently it is not a sitting duck. As stated before, 1183-1132 is a major cluster.

Here are two nice duck photos
Duck can fly
A flock ducks get nowhere

The time machine arrives the centre of the Fibonacci Time ratio 0.5 in this chart, it is hard to tell 1105.37 is the apex. We may need the event (in this chart) to provide some sort of confirmation, it is due on 11/23-24.

I updated the wave chart, see below. Two sets of wave can be identified, one highlighted with red color, the other in blue color. Thus:

666.79-->930.17-->869.32-->1132.70 [1.0]
666.79-->956.23-->869.32-->1158.53 [1.0]

From the above two sets of waves, a few FIB clusters can be visualized, [1000-1014],[1034-1066] [1083-1132], 1122 is the 0.5 retracement in between 667 & 1576.
spx11142009.JPG
Again, excuse my lengthy verbiage: (Nov 7 2009, 08:10 PM (post #4)) - The overall status is still dwell in the mist. Wait for confirmation.
The near term upper gauge 1107-1109, lower gauge 1074. Duck has relative deep buffer 1034-1066 before it slip blow the early trend reversal confirmation zone 1000-1014.



(2) 2012 - Maya calendar prophecy
While there were speculations what will happen when time tick hits on December 21, 2012. One thing for sure: The Gregorian calendar continues; There is always a bull market ahead, and most important(ly), there is only one life to live so you may as well to give it with your best wishes.

I quoted and complied some public domain articles into this assorted info:

Maya calendar
"What is popularly known as the Mayan Calendar is what archaeologists, anthropologists, and archaeoastronomers call the Long Count. The Long Count is a large segment of time (1/5 of the 26,000-year cycle of the precession of the equinoxes) with a definite starting and ending point."

"The Long Count calendar identifies a date by counting the number of days from the Mayan creation date"

"The Long Count dates are written vertically, As can be seen at left, the Long Count date shown on Stela C at Tres Zapotes is 7.16.6.16.18."
Posted Image

"According to the correlation between the Long Count and Western calendars accepted by the great majority of Maya researchers (known as the GMT correlation), this starting-point is equivalent to August 11, 3114 BC in the proleptic Gregorian calendar or 6 September in the Julian calendar (−3113 astronomical). and it ends on December 21, 2012."
Posted Image

"Despite the publicity generated by the 2012 date, Susan Milbrath, curator of Latin American Art and Archaeology at the Florida Museum of Natural History, stated that "We [the archaeological community] have no record or knowledge that [the Maya] would think the world would come to an end" in 2012."

"Inscriptions beyond 2012
Maya stelae occasionally show dates beyond 2012. .... For example, on the Tablet of Inscriptions from Palenque the following Long Count date was found: 9.8.9.13.0 8 Ahau 13 Pop with a distance date of 10.11.10.5.8. The resulting date is given as 1.0.0.0.0.8 or October 21, 4772 ó almost 3,000 years into the future"

References:
Maya calendar
Mesoamerican Long Count calendar

Prophecy
ALL ABOUT 2012
Katun prophecy

Mayan Religion
"scholars are fairly confident that the katun 13 Ahau, which seems to have had great significance for the Mayan, ended on November 14, 1539. It has been calculated that the next katun, which the Popul Vuh describes as the catastrophic end of the world, will end on December 21, 2012. Naturally, this has inspired quite a bit of speculation as to what might happen on this date."

End of Mayan Calendar 2012--Might 2012 Mean Something? By COGwriter
"The date December 21st, 2012 A.D. (13.0.0.0.0 in the Long Count), represents an extremely close conjunction of the Winter Solstice Sun with the crossing point of the Galactic Equator (Equator of the Milky Way) and the Ecliptic (path of the Sun), what that ancient Maya recognized as the Sacred Tree. This is an event that has been coming to resonance very slowly over thousands and thousands of years."

Maya Calendar - End of the World - December 21, 2012

Maya Calendar
Winter Solstice of 2012 - convergence of knowledge

http://members.shaw....ley/calnote.htm
http://members.shaw....nley/katun.html

#7 stanley

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Posted 16 November 2009 - 10:35 AM

archived
-------------------------------------------
Oct 14 2009, 11:56 AM (post #10)
http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=487259
S&P500 index 1100 is a major number, ranges 1083-1132.
The overall wave looks bullish; the best outcome for bears is a consolidation process.
A very preliminary view for the next few months: If the pullback is not lower than 1034-1066, index might challenge 1158, and then 1229. There is some tough work for both bulls/bears in the range 1083-1132. The lower range support is 1000-1014 and 960.

Oct 30 2009, 06:54 AM (post #1 in this thread)
November Outlook in essence
Wait for downside reversal confirmation, an early gauge is to see index dive below 1000-1014; Since index breached 1101 on 10/21, the assault on upper limit 1132, 1158 still canít be ruled out. Upper side breakout gauge is 1109.
-------------------------------------------

Bull took out 1107-1109 at this writing [11/16 7:12am PST] (The middle point in between 1083 and 1132 is 1107.5.), Even though it is still "far" away (23 points) from 1132, Bull/Bear confrontation is at a critical point.

#8 stanley

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Posted 22 November 2009 - 01:16 AM

This has been one tough period to trade.

Letís take a small detour: leonid-meteor-shower

Leonid over Mono Lake - 2009 November 19
Photo 1: http://antwrp.gsfc.n...r_Rowell900.jpg
Link - NASA - Astronomy Picture of the Day Archive

Leonid Meteor Shower
photo 2: http://www.courant.c...11/50547682.jpg
link - Marlborough. (ALAN CHANIEWSKI / HARTFORD COURANT / November 17, 2009)

"But the sky knows the reason and the patterns behind all clouds, and you will know, too, when you lift yourself high enough to see beyond horizons.." ( Jonathan Livingston Seagull by Richard Bach. )
seagull.JPG

To view the original photo (truly magnificent) click: http://farm3.static....9f51d769e_o.jpg
creditor: ct2009

The fibonacci time zone 0.5 ( in this chart ) was due on 11/13 +/-. Index marked an unconfirmed apex 1,113.69 on 11/16. the Market deployed the "stumble and run" fractal 3 times, each one spike up about 80-85 points, it is amazing!
spx11202009.JPG
we will need [url="http://<a%20href="http://traders-talk.com/mb2/uploads/monthly_11_2009/post-5846-1257263656.jpg"%20target="_blank">http://traders-talk....7263656.jpg</a>"] this event [/url] to provide some sort of the confirmation. however, I guess it is, anagin, another secondary event.
Other than a small aberration from the critical check point 1107-1109 ( 1113 vs 1109), the saga hangs tough. The zones/pivots to be observed are: 1083-1132, 1074, 1033-1066, 1019, 1000-1014 [trend reversal early confirmation zone].

On hand I have 3 dates 01/18, 04/13, 09/13 in 2010 may be significant [to be elaborated]. Other reference dates: Negative planetary aspects in 2010: June 5/6, July 30/31, August 6/7. December 13, in particular, the Grand Cross on August 6/7. Two important Bradley turn dates, 03/01/10, and 08/10/10

Mark Twain quotes [ http://www.twainquot...tockMarket.html http://quotes4all.ne...n/quotes_5.html http://www.goodreads...tes/show/107692 ]

OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The other are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.
- Pudd'nhead Wilson's Calendar

There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: when he can't afford it and when he can.
- Following the Equator, Pudd'nhead Wilson's New Calendar

#9 stanley

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Posted 27 November 2009 - 01:25 AM

From prior post: The zones/pivots to be observed are: 1083-1132, 1074, 1033-1066 .... .

As stated in the older posts, there is some significance in the zone of 1034-1066. When index penetrates support 1083 and 1074, it may find support around 1045-1050, and therefore, establishes a bullish stance.

10/30/09 close 1,036.19
11/02/09 Open 1,036.18

This is a closing post for "SPX monthly outlook - Rhapsody of November"