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A Sustainable LOW but HOW HIGH this BOUNCE? 5 to 10%

Yesterday, 04:55 PM

Posted by dTraderB in Fearless Forecasters

A great TRADING week, only 1.9% return for the week but was down until that monstrous reversal.

 

I expect a retest of at least 3850, possible trading 3760-70 zone this week, but 

there is a sustainable LOW being formed and the bounce can be from 5 to 10%

 

Not much higher unless unexpected good news, and this is now a different market than the BULL of previous years. 

 

DIP BUYERS may be burned in a regular basis if they continues to "buy the sure thing on every drop"

 

 

Holding a BIG LONG position with 4 ES & NQ HEDGE SHORT'

 

 

  575 Views · 37 Replies ( Last reply by redfoliage2 )

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Value Line Geo....

Yesterday, 09:13 AM

Posted by K Wave in Fearless Forecasters

At perhaps one of the most important inflection points in its history...

 

As I like to watch everything I can for clues, THIS ONE could be a big tell....

 

As long as bulls can hold pretty much RIGHT HERE, then possibility a raging long term bear market does not develop.

 

BUT....if it pitches it over the side here...buckle up for perhaps one of the greatest Breakout...oops...Fakeouts ever.

 

Daily

 

valud.png

 

Weekly

 

Valug.png

 

  217 Views · 5 Replies ( Last reply by steadyquest )

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Cycles and Bradley

21 May 2022

Posted by cycletimer in Fearless Forecasters

* If someone can explain how to copy and/or post a jpeg. pic in this forum I can provide the 2022 Bradley Indicator, which has been on a roll in 2022 with accuracy!

 

UPDATE ON ME:  There are many here in this forum that follow various cycles which makes for a terrific, shared community of ideas, strategies, interpretations of charts, cycles, hence the name "Fearless Forecasts."  I've been a part of this community since Mark started it decades ago, though I don't post often any longer as I am no longer an active trader.  I left corporate life recently, moved from DFW, Texas to the rural Ozarks and I am now living my dream...at age 55 I recently finished the Police Academy and I am now a Sheriff Deputy, something I have wanted to do my whole life (It's a Calling and I felt the Call) but postponed it because the pay stinks (can you believe starting salary is $36k/year?!) and I wanted to be financially set first, which took me until now to be able to do.  No debt, low cost of living and low taxes, though inflation will put a hurt on me!

 

On to Cycles:

At this juncture in the equity markets, for those with dry powder, assemble a wishlist of stocks you want to purchase AND instead of placing limit orders, Sell cash-covered puts at strikes below the market and/or at prices you'd be willing to pay for the stocks.  A rarity...at this time and at these price levels after the massive selloff, coupled with terribly negative sentiment, this is a low risk strategy and at the very least, it will generate nice income if the stocks aren't "put to You."  Which if they are, you own them but at lower prices that where they're currently trading at.  I usually go 3 or 4 months out in expiration and pick a price level that is support or take a stab at prices 5% or so below current market.  The higher the price for the stock the better as the premium you'll receive is rich, especially now, puts are extremely expensive!  

(One ETF that I own and love holding is DIVO.  a CEF that I own and love holding is SOR.  Check them out and read about them, they're unique and are managed well.) 

 

If on the other hand, you're fully-invested in stocks, you'll get a chance to lighten up in the Fall, when a cycle turn (High) is due.  Right now you have to be very patient and hopefully you can collect dividends while you wait.   Regardless, you will want to lighten up on forthcoming rallies to high or near previous highs (probably get back to 4300 on S&P by Sept).  WHY?  Because things are going to get rough in 2023.  Hint...War Cycles will heat up in 1st quarter of 2023.... big Lows in markets in 2024.  Cash is King again and will become more and more attractive as savings account rates increase as FED plays out their intentions. 

 

Civil Unrest & Crime:

There are cycles for this also, believe it or not.  It will also be on the rise again.  You can pick numerous catalysts, from Roe vs. Wade (in the event the opinion of Supreme Court justices come to fruition as a Majority), Increased price inflation. More Scarcity for just about everything will cause major social problems.  Food Shortages will get worse and worse.  WHAT'S  MORE Important than your investment account is your access to food.  You can be a goldbug and hold precious metals in your home safe but you can't eat it!  Things are going to become very bad.  I recently ordered a 1/2 a cow and I would recommend doing this as well.  I will also hunt a deer in the Winter as I am now on 15 acres and there's deer galore.  Stock up on non-perishable foods.  That "Patriot Supply" survival food is okay but it's very expensive currently.  I purchased a month supply over four years ago when it was much less expensive.  Plant non-GMO seeds and grow your own garden.  The veggies taste great and gardening is therapy!  

* I know I delved into many areas in this post but this is all very important.  

You don't have to be a "nut-job prepper."   But DO BE PREPARED......ALSO, and this is from a newly-sworn Deputy, BE YOUR OWN FIRST RESPONDER.  Take that how you decide.  Have medical supplies, buy tourniquets AND learn how to use them.  Have all the defense supplies you need.  I learned something in the early days of the 14 week Police Academy. 

The Police show up after a crime has already been committed.  As much as we desire to Protect our communities, we Service them by taking a thorough report from witnesses after a crime, which is very unfortunate.  Think about that.  We show up after the crime, not often do we prevent a crime.  Know the laws in your state and PREPARE TO BE YOUR OWN FIRST RESPONDER. 

  258 Views · 4 Replies ( Last reply by brucekeller )

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Risk Windows & the Well Announced Bounce

21 May 2022

Posted by Douglas in Fearless Forecasters

My risk window system output is a mess this week with risk cycle turn clusters at the front of the week, a smaller one in the middle and another larger one near the end of the week, so maybe an "M" shaped week.   The day with highest reading is Tuesday the 24th, but not by much.  

 

Last week the Monday risk window was a day early and a dollar short dud with the turn coming the next day.  The Thursday into Friday morning risk window did catch a complex low of some sort the importance of which will depend on the action early this coming week. 

 

ZMwZYtO.png

 

Regarding my post concerning the DeMark 13 count looking for a low, I think it is now 12, but I haven't seen any follow-up from him  confirming this.  If anyone has, please post a response with an update.

 

The VIX  minus future VIX bottom spotter that I posted about is diverging with the S&P, so maybe it is signalling a minor low, but it still has not reached the heights needed to call a big low. 

 

aYmpYsW.png

 

Just about every tout's stuff that I've read on the web this weekend is looking for a bounce next week.  Several of the more reliable long cycles that I track have turn windows the first 10 days of June, so if the best announced short squeeze bounce ever doesn't develop, or fizzles, next week, then early June should be the next fertile ground to dig for the low.

 

Regards,

Douglas

  216 Views · 2 Replies ( Last reply by K Wave )

  298 Views · 7 Replies ( Last reply by steadyquest )



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