According to my risk summation system, Tuesday the 22nd and Friday the 25th have a higher than average risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend, but neither risk signal is as high as last week's or next week's peak values.  I'm not quite sure what to make of this risk valley, but some sort of dull rounding bottom would seem to be the most likely result.

 

My comment that every day last week pretty much had a relatively high risk window value turned out to be correct.  It was just a lousy week in general for the DJIA. 

 

Soapbox:  Who "woke" the FED?  Suddenly last week it appears that a few among their numbers realized that gradually impoverishing every person working for a fixed salary or living on a fixed pension might not be a good idea and maybe they should start to think about talking about maybe someday easing up on their trickle up system to make every asset rich person really really rich.  I suppose a Lambo in every asset rich guy's garage doesn't have quite the same ring to it as a chicken in every pot, but hey, no one wants to see perfectly good beluga caviar going bad on the shelf.  If the insanity of what they have been doing for years ever sinks into the vast national conscience, I suspect that the biggest shortage driven inflation bubble that they will have to deal with will be in the price of pitchforks, tar and feathers. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

 

Margin debt through May was at record highs, to even get a crash like March 2020, first you need to see a drop over a few months in margin debt and then a new high in price but not in margin debt.
Even if margin debt dropped in June, it still needs more time to create a divergent top. I think about 5% is all you can expect out of this sell off if even that.

Could it be a glitch at Coinbase?

 

Crypto Currency Confusion: Georgia man wakes up a 'trillionaire'

 

https://www.google.c...62000217_1.html

More are bearish, but I wonder now if this 2021 market is REALLY DIFFERENT and cannot be evaluated as markets of the past. Would not be surprised to see another rally to SPX 4400 minimum, then the BIG DROP.

 

One of my best weeks of 2021 ended with ES plunging in after hours...  more later

 

 

"This past week, we broke below the 4190SPX support which increased our probability for seeing the 4000SPX region once again. However, it may not be a direct move down. In fact, there is still some potential within the market to still rally back up to the 4300SPX region before we head down to the 4000SPX region. I would add that the probabilities of rallying to the 4400SPX region before we see that 200-300 point decline have also diminished. While I am keeping an open mind regarding this potential based upon how the market develops over the coming week or so, I think the probabilities suggest that we will remain below 4310SPX, and re-test the 3950-4000SPX region before we begin the next phase of this bull market rally to the 4600+ region."

https://seekingalpha...the-bull-market