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Bing, Joey, Gumper, andr99, Google, Waver, EHW, hhh, gti_99, gannman, anant, SteveB, RagingSpartan, tommyt, opinionated, DaVinny, trdtk, chr63, dwyer, stubaby, bear_cub, dharma, jacek

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Hindenburg Omen

Today, 01:42 PM

Posted by tommyt in Fearless Forecasters

Jim Miekka only developed HO as a signal for the NYSE, not the Nasdaq.  Same for Bill Ohama and the TS. 

  99 Views · 3 Replies ( Last reply by andr99 )

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Shiny Happy People Cheering Stocks’ New Highs: HINDENBURG...

Yesterday, 08:16 PM

Posted by dTraderB in Fearless Forecasters

92% SHORT, which is basically almost FULL SHORT

Good column at link below

Shiny Happy People: Investors Cheering Stocks’ New Highs

Options Traders at Optimistic Extreme

111819_CBOEPutCallRatio.png?itok=2N-4zTw

Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, as of 11/15/2019. 

Smart vs. dumb money  

Finally, one of my favorite sentiment indicators—and one of the most popular ones I show in my writings or in client presentations—is constructed by SentimenTrader (ST) on a daily basis. The Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence indices are a unique innovation that show what the “good” market timers are doing with their money compared to what “bad” market timers are doing.

ST’s Confidence indices use mostly real-time gauges—there are few opinions involved in them. Generally, you want to follow the Smart Money traders when they reach an extreme and do the opposite of what the Dumb Money traders are doing when they are at an extreme. 

Examples of some Smart Money indicators include the OEX put/call and open interest ratios, commercial hedger positions in the equity index futures and the current relationship between stocks and bonds. Examples of some Dumb Money indicators include the equity-only put/call ratio (like shown above), the flow into and out of the Rydex series of index mutual funds, and small speculators in equity index futures contracts. 

Because the “dumb money” follows trends, and the “smart money” generally goes against trends, the “dumb money” is usually correct during the meat of the trend. However, when it becomes too positive, and sentiment has reached an extreme, stocks typically run into trouble. That has historically typically happened when Dumb Money Confidence rose above 60% and Smart Money Confidence has fallen below 40%.

Well, see below. Clearly, we are at one of those historical extremes. As of Friday, the five-day average of the Smart Money/Dumb Money Confidence spread has moved below -60%. In the past decade, this happened on 55 days, leading to further gains for the S&P 500 over the next two months after only 20 of them (a low 36% “win rate”), with a median return of -3.0%.

“Dumb Money” & “Smart Money” at Opposite Extremes

111819_SmartDumbMoney.png?itok=JHxWXfN2

Source: Charles Schwab, SentimenTrader, as of 11/15/2019.

In sum  

For the past near-two years we have been pointing out the confluence of uncertainties that have meant the market could “go either way”—including most obviously trade/tariffs, but also the related economic trajectory, Fed policy and geopolitical/political uncertainty. It has led to a wide trading range—the peaks and valleys of which have been driven as much by extremes in sentiment as they have by the changing dynamics of the underlying fundamentals. In light of that, and the extremes of sentiment we are witnessing again, investors should not view the market’s latest high with rose-colored glasses.

https://www.schwab.c...tocks-new-highs

  470 Views · 15 Replies ( Last reply by andr99 )

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Actual Position and Market Opinion Poll for Tuesday 11/19/19

Yesterday, 05:08 PM

Posted by OEXCHAOS in Fearless Forecasters

YOU MUST BE REGISTERED AND LOGGED IN TO VOTE.  Log In | Register

If the registration module isn't working for you, you can message us here or at admin@ this site and we'll set you up.

Remember, "Partially Long (or Short)" means less than your normal full position. E.g., If you typically use leverage, then 100% long would be "Partially Long".



Check out past Poll results here: http://www.traders-t...n-poll-archive/


 

  54 Views · 0 Replies

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the BIGLEY line

Yesterday, 04:02 PM

Posted by da_cheif in Fearless Forecasters

  150 Views · 0 Replies

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Euphoria, euphoric rally - China plays the stall card to...

Yesterday, 08:34 AM

Posted by dTraderB in Fearless Forecasters

The fun, fear, and excitement  - and risk - of NQ 12-lot trading in pre-cash session. 

 

"Euphoria" seems to be a popular word this morning.

 

And, a few are calling for pullback etc

 

This will be a big week leading into the holiday next week.  

 

Eunice YoonVerified account @onlyyoontv
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Mood in Beijing about #trade deal is pessimistic, government source tells me. #China troubled after Trump said no tariff rollback. (China thought both had agreed in principle.) Strategy now to talk but wait due to impeachment, US election. Also prioritize China economic support.

5:18 AM - 18 Nov 2019

 

  1,016 Views · 41 Replies ( Last reply by robo )



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