According to my turn probability summation system, the days in the next week or so with the highest probability of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday November 10th through the morning of Tuesday November 11th and the afternoon of Thursday November 13th through Monday November 17th.

 

Last week shown in the marketwatch.com plot below the Monday November 3rd window just caught a piece of the trend down, no turn, no real acceleration, so it was a dud.  The Friday the 7th window may have caught a bottom of some degree in the DJIA given the big reversal that day.

 

 

Not to sound like Chicken Little, well maybe a bit, Monday November 17th is another crash risk window, but its development has been poor given it required a top in the DJIA to occur on about October 3rd to enable the risk, but the actual top was much later on October 29th.  Also for this crash risk window to be enabled the DJIA must be oversold going into November 17th, so the turnaround which began this past Friday will have to fail early this coming week and the DJIA will need to head south in a hurry.  So given all this, the odds of this particular crash risk window working out is extra low.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

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Bought FUTU today

FUTU makes the MooMoo trading app. Indispensable for my trading. (Just so you know, I have only used their data, I have never traded with their app.)

They are widely popular, especially, in the following countries:

Singapore: Moomoo's platform has surpassed 1.5 million users, connecting with about half of the residents between the ages of 20 and 70, and is the most downloaded trading app.

Hong Kong: Moomoo is also ranked as the most downloaded trading app.

Australia: Moomoo became the most downloaded trading app in 2025 and has received numerous industry awards, according to Quiver Quantitative, Yahoo Finance, and Moomoo.

Japan: The platform has earned the certification for the "No. 1 US Stock Investment Platform in Japan".

Canada: Moomoo holds the #1 ranking for Android finance app downloads in Canada.

One stock that my whole family love is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (Ticker: TSM). They make at least 90% of the worlds most advanced chips.

Whether you are Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom or Apple, you stand in line at TSM for your AI chips manufacturing.

The company recently raised its full-year revenue guidance to mid-30% growth, largely driven by AI, high-performance computing, and data center demand . Analysts project revenue and earnings to grow at roughly 24-27% annually through 2027.

## **AI Boom Catalyst**

In Q3 2025, TSMC generated 60% of its revenue from its smallest 3nm and 5nm nodes, with 57% coming from high-performance computing, including Nvidias data center GPUs . Management expects AI data center revenue to grow at a compound annual rate in the mid-40% range through 2029 .

## **Technological Leadership**

TSMC is launching 2nm chips in late 2025 and 1.6nm chips in 2026, with the 2nm chips offering 20-30% better power consumption than 3nm chips at the same speed . This addresses a critical concern for data centers where energy costs are substantial.

## **Attractive Valuation**

The stock trades at just 19 times next years earnings despite stellar growth rates . This is below or in line with broader market valuations, making it relatively inexpensive given its growth trajectory.

## **Geographic Diversification**

To address geopolitical risks, TSMC is deploying $100 billion to build production capacity in the U.S., Germany, and Japan, with its Arizona facility already sold out through 2027 .

**Important considerations**: The main risks include geopolitical tensions with China and Taiwan, though the global semiconductor supply chains dependence on TSMC may make major disruption less likely. Still, these are factors to weigh against the companys strengths.

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