Jump to content



Photo

Big Mac Attack


  • This topic is locked This topic is locked
173 replies to this topic

#41 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,684 posts

Posted 21 March 2010 - 04:49 PM

Stockcharts had the NYSI down one point. A down is a down (remember this spectacular run began with an one-point NYSI up turn on Feb. 12th). So on this signal here are some of the results: TNA up 33 percent, BGU and UPRO both up 24 percent, SSO up 16 percent, QLD up 17 percent and DDM up 13 percent. With returns like that banked some might be tempted to hop their Gulfstreams and take the rest of the year off. DRN, which IYB pointed out a few days ago was a real leader, was up 58 percent. If the market corrects and pulls it down, it might be a prime speculative candidate for the next NYMO/NYSI rally. I happen to think there's a good chance this rally is not over and there will be another week or so of choppy upside with the NYMO bouncing before there's a more sizable correction, but the point here is to not think and just follow the signals. So we'll see soon. Probably tomorrow. :rolleyes:

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#42 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,684 posts

Posted 22 March 2010 - 08:07 PM

I happen to think there's a good chance this rally is not over and there will be another week or so of choppy upside with the NYMO bouncing before there's a more sizable correction, but the point here is to not think and just follow the signals. So we'll see soon. Probably tomorrow. :rolleyes:


As Kurt Vonnegut used to say: "and so it goes."

NYMO up, VIX down, NYSI back on buy. Marked the seventh week of McClellan cycle on the last rally on the chart below. We are there again. Question can history repeat?

http://stockcharts.c...1656&r=6096.png

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#43 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,684 posts

Posted 24 March 2010 - 06:30 PM

Gone again. NYSI down one point again for a sell. TNA virtually flat (up 32 cents on the trade :D ). Rather ugly looking high below high on the NYMO. Sold all my stocks and bought a little TWM. Might add more depending on the price action tomorrow. Good trading to everyone. :)

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#44 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,684 posts

Posted 25 March 2010 - 06:02 PM

There are times to rock and then there are times to roll... :)

http://stockcharts.c...41497&r=595.png

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#45 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,684 posts

Posted 05 April 2010 - 05:19 PM

The bull stomps onward, and stomps on...everyone.

NYSI reversed long today. TZA lost 6.6 percent, and TWM, 4.5 percent, since the NYSI went negative on March 24th.

It appears there is no money to be made going short in a bull market. As the great market guru John McEnroe once said: "The important thing is to learn a lesson every time you lose. Life is a learning process and you have to try to learn what's best for you. Let me tell you, life is not fun when you're banging your head against a brick wall all the time." Sage advice for those trying to short the bull and as well as those trying to buy the bear.

This is a bothersome turn on the NYSI because the NYMO did not go low enough to give an easy ride to the upside on this reversal, and there is no low above a low so it's quite possible this market is going to do more work to the downside before there's a real upside swing. The TNA price action looks like a luscious little breakout but check out the volume. Bothersome. We could have a NYSI whipsaw here, but then again it's possible this is such a roaring bull now, it can't even get decently oversold. Oh, well, we will know in the fullness of time...

For now, the context is long, or maybe I should say long with tight, tight stops.

Good trading to everyone. :)

http://stockcharts.c...1656&r=3381.png

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#46 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,684 posts

Posted 08 April 2010 - 12:59 AM

As suspected, the NYSI gave up the buy signal today, whipsawing into a sell... TNA closed out virtually flat (up 74 percent) on the buy two days ago. Should continue down from here to oversold but further whipsawing is not out of the question given how bullish the market has been since March of last year -- again and again, the short side has been difficult in the bull-market context. Good trading to everyone. :)

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#47 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,684 posts

Posted 10 April 2010 - 12:55 AM

We now have a low above a low on the NYMO and the NYSI has gone positive today giving a buy signal without every getting oversold (see chart above). Yuck! What to make of this? A rare event indeed. I suppose it's a fake out and we're going to get more downside soon to post an oversold on the NYSI, or this market is going 1999 right now.

Regardless, it appears this is still a bull and a big bull at that. The NYSI keep posting peaks that will take a long time to work off before anything any bear is wishin' and hopin' for is ever going to happen. Until further notice from the markets, whatever decline comes, it will be another buying opportunity preceding significant trading rally. See blue lines and circles on the long-term chart below for a quick historical reference -- as continuation signals go those 1000plus touch points on the NYSI are as good as any one could want.

Nothing to do, I guess, but go long. With a tight stop. If anyone thinks bear markets are hard, trying trading in an out of bulls.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&st=2002-05-01&en=(today)&i=p96449567507&a=194785055&r=1903.png

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#48 CLK

CLK

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,581 posts

Posted 10 April 2010 - 06:10 AM

NYMO low above a low doesn't mean much to me without a lower low on price to go with it. We have a higher high in price with a still lower high in NYMO.

#49 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,684 posts

Posted 11 April 2010 - 09:51 AM

NYMO low above a low doesn't mean much to me without a
lower low on price to go with it. We have a higher high in price with a still
lower high in NYMO.

Can't disagree much with you here. As I've said in the my last few posts, I'm not at all certain how this is going to play out.

I'd like to see a drop like last Oct-Nov and last Jan-Feb right about now to give fuel to a big summer rally on the other side of the drop. But what I'd like to see and what's going on in the market at the moment are two entirely different matters. It's hard to see on the charts here but back in April of 2006 there was something similar to this when the NYSI flattened out and the market kept trudging onward. It's possible that can happen now -- a running sideways correction and a steady bias to higher prices. Given recent strength in the market, I'm not going to fight the trend which is once again up.

Actually, the only good thing I see about being long on this low above a low is the fact the stop is really close by -- if the market is down Monday, it's highly likely the NYSI will once again turn down (Stockcharts had it up only 3 points, and I had it up 7 in Trade Station), stopping out the current pattern (hopefully with no more than a small loss).

Remember the trend is always your friend even if it's flirting with disaster.

:)

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#50 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 4,684 posts

Posted 13 April 2010 - 03:18 PM

Assuming Stockcharts confirms the 14 point downturn in the NYSI I have in Trade Station, this is another whipsaw as NYSI gives a sell signal and the NYMO puts in a high below a high. Thanks to 3x ETFs this was a small winner -- TNA up about 1.7 percent on this two-day NYSI buy. Sure would like to see some downside follow-through to relieve the tension on the tape (as Ed Hart used to say), but everything I have intraday says we're going higher. Extremely tough trading market. :huh:

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."