The VRTrader.com VR Silver Newsletter - Monday 11/1/2010
"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright ©2010, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. LEIBOVIT FILES | by Mark Leibovit Leibovit Files
Monday, November 01, 2010
Volatility Likely Ahead, Folks - But The TREND Is Higher
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Commentary below from TIMER DIGEST's #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 10-year period ending in 2007 - Mark Leibovit
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Current TIMER DIGEST Signals:
Stocks - Bull
Gold - Bull
Bonds - Neutral
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UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES/MARKET EVENTS
NOVEMBER 1 - 5, 2010:
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MONDAY, NOVEMBER 1:
PRE-MARKET EARNINGS:
Corning, Humana, IntercontinentalExchange
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Announcement
11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
POST-MARKET EARNINGS:
Anadarko Petro, Rogers Corp, Winn-Dixie Stores
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TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 2:
Turnaround Tuesday
Election Day. Remember to vote.
PRE-MARKET EARNINGS:
Archer-Daniels, Clorox, Kellogg, Martin Marietta, MasterCard, NYSE Euronext, Teva Pharma
Motor Vehicle Sales
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
POST-MARKET EARNINGS:
Denny's, Wynn Resorts
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WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 3:
PRE-MARKET EARNINGS:
CVS Caremark, MGM Resorts, Pulte Homes, SPX Corp
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Treasury Refunding Announcement
9:00 AM ET
3-Yr Note Announcement
9:00 AM ET
10-Yr Note Announcement
9:00 AM ET
30-Yr Bond Announcement
9:00 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:15 PM ET
POST-MARKET EARNINGS:
Con-way, Kenneth Cole, Prudential, Whole Foods
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THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 4:
PRE-MARKET EARNINGS:
DIRECTV, Health Net, Time Warner Cable
Chain Store Sales
Monster Employment Index
6:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
POST-MARKET EARNINGS:
CF Industries, Fluor, Kraft Foods, Starbucks
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FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 5:
PRE-MARKET EARNINGS:
Beazer Homes, DISH Network
Pending Home Sales Index
Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Thomas Hoenig Speaks
9:30 AM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
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STOCKS - ACTION ALERT -
The market bounced bath and forth on Friday, just as it did the other four days of the week, and closed mixed. The market got weaker than expected GDP data and consumer sentiment but that was offset by a stronger than expected Chicago PMI. More important, traders were focused on earnings reports and are looking forward to Tuesday's election, the quantitative easing expected to be announced Wednesday, and monthly unemployment report on Friday. This uncertainty is causing traders to wait on the sidelines for a better signal on the direction of this market, economy, and nation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 4.54 points, or 0.04%, to 11118.49. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.04 to 2507.41 while the S&P 500 fell 0.52 to 1,183.26. Breadth was positive but volume was very sluggish.
It's a no-brainer in my opinion. Equity and commodity markets are going to go higher as Bernanke is forced sooner or later to increase the tempo of QE. If he hints he is slowing downt he pace, in my opinion its a lie simply to distract the markets. The Fed has been notorious for saying one thing and doing another. We already know trillions of dollars have been 'donated' to unknown recipients and since we have no transparency we can only assume the money has gone to appease those who have threatened to curtail the financial system. Could it be the Chinese or is it simply other 'banksters'?
So, if we see a market correction, downside risk in the S&P 500 is maximum 1140 - which is still nasty I suppose. However, it will be a great buying opportunity for a move which should first carry the S&P 500 to 1220 and, believe it or not, to 1400-1500 before mid 2012. We could see 1220 first! Interest rates will likely rise during the months ahead (along with commodity prices) and if hedge fund manager, John Paulson, is correct (see article below), you should be running out and buying houses.
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Here is an August 29, 2010 article from Bloomberg:
Bloomberg Wins Its Lawsuit Against the Federal Reserve
"Score one for Bloomberg in its lawsuit seeking to force the federal government to disclose who it's bailing out with trillions of our dollars. Yes, the federal government has-incredibly-been trying to conceal that.
A federal judge in U.S. District Court ruled in favor of Bloomberg, saying the Federal Reserve must release the names of the entities it has lent money to. Bravo to Judge Loretta Preska, who ruled that the the Fed "improperly withheld" the records from Bloomberg.
The Fed has five days to give Bloomberg the records it found but didn't turn over and has to also look for similar records at the New York Fed to turn over-though, presumably, it will delay this as long as it can with appeals.
The Fed had refused to name the financial firms it lent to or disclose the amounts or the assets put up as collateral under 11 programs, most put in place during the deepest financial crisis since the Great Depression, saying that doing so might set off a run by depositors and unsettle shareholders. Bloomberg LP, the New York-based company majority-owned by Mayor Michael Bloomberg, sued on Nov. 7 on behalf of its Bloomberg News unit.
It's unclear whether the ruling forces the Fed to disclose the collateral it has accepted in exchange for the loans. If it is, this is a huge story. And anyway it's good anytime the veil is lifted on the secretive and undemocratic Federal Reserve."
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Materials were the biggest movers on Friday (XLB +0.81%) as metal prices rose sharply. Healthcare was the worst performer (XLV -0.42%) after Merck reported earnings Friday morning. Nevertheless, most sectors didn't move much. We did see a very slight move toward risk on Friday as Small Caps (IWM +0.31%) outperformed Large Caps (SPY +0.08%).
While the sideways action continued for a second week on most of the major indexes, the NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ Composite both hit 6-month highs as Technology (XLK +0.16%) continued to slowly work its way higher following Microsoft's strong earnings report.
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DOW TRANSPORTS - ACTION ALERT -
Transportation stocks outperformed on Friday as oil prices fell. The Dow Jones Transportation Average gained 20.11 or 0.42% to 4754.29.
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GOLD and METALS - ACTION ALERT -
Precious metals rallied after the weaker than expected economic reports which boosted the chances of quantitative easing next week. A weak Dollar also helped the precious metals. Gold broke through resistance at the 1350 level, closing at 1359.60 up 15.50. The next challenge is the 1388 high. Silver gained 0.71 to 24.74. Interestingly, the Silver ETFs (SILV, my favorite, and SLV) traded into new bull market highs on Friday. Platinum rallied 14 to 1703. Palladium jumped 22 to 646 and hit a 10-year high of 652. However, copper dropped 0.0540 to 3.7335.
Silver and Palladium, therefore, are the two strongest markets.
Asian central banks are interested in
buying gold on dips, to rebalance their FX-stash away from the US-dollar and other
paper trash.
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URANIUM - ACTION ALERT
Ux U3O8 Prices* (Uranium)
October 25, 2010 Posting
Spot: $52.00 UP 2.75. Bull market high in the cash market was $138.00.
The December Uranium Futures closed at $51.25. Uranium futures recent his a new bear market low of 40.00. June 13, 2007 hosted the bull market high of 154.95. Major support lies well under the market at $36.00.
The spot price of uranium quadrupled from 2004 to 2007. When it hit $138/lb, uranium became a certified bubble, which has now burst.
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BONDS - ACTION ALERT -
Treasuries rallied on Friday after the weak GDP and consumer sentiment reports. Along with low inflation within the GDP report, this gives the Federal Reserve more ammunition to start another a bond-buying program next week. The long bond future gained 23/32 to 130 30/32.
Volume has been negative in the two key ETFs I track, TLT and IEF, telling me that interest rates should be moving higher in the months ahead. I know this doesn't make sense considering the state of the economy and lending, but markets are apparently pricing in inevitable inflation.
Yields on 10-year notes fell 5 basis points to 2.61%. Yields on 2-year notes declined 3 basis points to 0.34%. They again touched the all-time low of 0.33% during U.S. trading hours. Thirty-year bond yields declined 5 basis points to 4%.
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CRUDE OIL - ACTION ALERT -
Oil declined Friday as energy traders stayed cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting next week and the day's crop of economic data painted a dimmer picture of the economy.. Crude oil dropped 0.75 to 81.43.
As I've said, Crude should follow other commodities higher with potential to 90.00. Officially, however, I have no positions here.
Natural gas continues to recover after hitting a record low on Monday. December natural gas rose 0.148 to 4.038 on Friday and has rallied 15.4% since hitting a low of 3.500 on Monday. Volume is positive and aggressive traders may wish to buy keeping a stop under recent lows, but its a bit early to confirm an important bottom. Watching like a hawk, though!
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US DOLLAR - ACTION ALERT -
The US Dollar Index finished little changed on Friday as trader wait for new from the FOMC next week. The US Dollar Index declined 0.042 to 77.266.
Commentators are holding their breadth regarding an imminent rally in the U.S. Dollar. Anything is possible, but my view remains the same: the Dollar is terminal. A technical bounce to 80-81 is certainly not out of the realm of possibility, but I would rather bet on seeing new lows. Watch the current 76.144 to 78.364 trading range for clues.
European Union leaders Friday agreed to tighten budget rules governing the euro zone in an effort to prevent a repeat of the Greece-led sovereign crisis that jolted the region earlier this year. The stricter rules, crafted by the finance ministers of the 27-nation block, include a permanent debt-crisis mechanism as well as new sanctions for countries that let deficits spiral out of control. The decision will be seen as a victory for German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Ever since the Greek shock, Germany has advocated the creation of a permanent system that would allow for an orderly default procedure in cases where countries find themselves in a sovereign-debt crisis. The Euro slipped 0.04% against the Dollar.
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ECONOMIC NEWS:
The U.S. economy had a small acceleration in the third quarter as consumer spending picked up, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Real gross domestic product rose at a 2.0% annualized rate in the third quarter, up from a 1.7% increase in the second quarter. Economists had expected a slightly stronger 2.1% growth rate. The big story for the third quarter was in the consumer sector, where spending rose to a 2.6% rate, the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2006. Business spending slowed in the third quarter and housing was a drag. Inventories added to GDP growth while trade subtracted from growth. Consumer prices rose 1%, while core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, grew by 0.8%.
The employment cost index for civilian workers increased 0.4% on a seasonally-adjusted basis between June and September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. For the year ended Sept. 2010, compensation costs rose 1.9%, wages and salaries rose 1.5% and benefit costs rose 2.7%.
The Chicago PMI in October rose to 60.6 from 60.4, a stronger reading than expected. Expectations were for a reading of 57.0.
U.S. consumer sentiment fell to 67.7 in October from 68.2 in September, according to a survey released Friday by Reuters and the University of Michigan. A prior estimate for sentiment in October was 67.9. Economists had expected a final October reading of 68.5. Worry over jobs has weighed down consumers. The average level of the index was around 88 prior to the most recent recession.
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CORPORATE NEWS:
Microsoft reported fiscal first-quarter profit of $5.4 billion, or 62 cents a share, from $3.6 billion or 40 cents a share, in the same period last year. Revenue rose 25% to $16.2 billion stemming from widespread adoption of the latest version of its Windows operating systems. Analysts had expected earnings of 55 cents a share on $15.8 billion in revenue. MSFT rose 1.46%.
Chevron said its third-quarter net income fell to $3.77 billion, or $1.87 a share, from $3.83 billion, or $1.92 a share, in the year-ago period. Foreign currency effects cost the company $367 million in the quarter. Revenue rose to $49.7 billion from $46.6 billion. Wall Street analysts expected Chevron to earn $2.16a share. Production rose 1% to 2.74 million barrels a day. Chevron plans to buy back $500 million to $1 billion in stock per quarter, starting in the fourth quarter. CVX declined 2.18%.
Merck said its third-quarter earnings fell by 90% to $341.6 million, or 11 cents a share, from $3.4 billion, or $1.61 a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding a $950 million legal reserve payment, restructuring costs and other items, Merck earned 85 cents a share in the latest quarter. The drug giant's revenue increased by 84% to $11.1 billion, from $6.1 billion. Wall Street analysts expected Merck to earn 83 cents a share, on revenue of $11.47 billion. Merck said it upped the low end of its adjusted 2010 earnings outlook to a range of $3.31 a share to $3.39 a share. MRK fell 1.71%.
MetLife said third-quarter net income came in at $286 million, or 32 cents a share, versus a net loss of $650 million, or 79 cents a share, in the same period a year earlier. Operating earnings, which exclude net realized investment gains and losses, were $878 million, or 99 cents a share, in the latest quarter. MetLife was expected to make $1.03 a share. Premiums, fees and other revenue totaled $8.64 billion in the period, up 2% from a year ago. MET slipped 0.32%.
Weyerhaeuser said it posted a $1.12 billion, or $3.50 a share profit in the third quarter, compared to a breakeven net income figure a year ago. Revenue at the firm rose to $1.66 billion, from $1.41 billion a year ago. The company said third quarter 2010 earnings $1.04 billion from income tax adjustments, primarily related to the reversal of deferred taxes as a result of Weyerhaeuser's conversion to a real estate investment trust. Excluding the tax gain, the company earned $81 million or 25 cents a share in the third quarter. WY jumped 3.38%.
Consumer and commercial product maker Newell Rubbermaid reported a 67% drop in third-quarter net income to $28.3 million, or 9 cents a share, against $85.5 million, or 28 cents. Adjusted earnings for the quarter were 42 cents against 38 cents. The company reported net sales of $1.49 billion against $1.45 billion in the year-ago period. Analysts were forecasting net income of 41 cents on revenue of $1.49 billion. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance for 2010, including net sales growth in the low mid-single digit range and core sales growth in the mid-single digits, diluted earnings of 83 cents to 93 cents. NWL lost 0.84%.
Expedia reported that third-quarter earnings leapt 51% to $176.6 million, or 62 cents a share, from $117 million, or 40 cents a share. Adjusted earnings were 66 cents a share. Revenue grew 16% to $987.9 million. Wall Street pegged earnings at 62 cents a share on revenue of $944 million. EXPE was down 0.65%.
Coinstar said its third-quarter profit fell to 60 cents a share from $1.34 a share in the year-ago period, but still beat the 50 cents a share expected by analysts. Revenue for the company, which owns and operates self-automated coin machines and a DVD business, rose 42% to $380.2 million. The company cited strength in its DVD revenue for the quarter, which grew 54.2% from the year-ago period. CSTR rallied 24.47%.
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Listen to my Michael Campbell interview on 'Money Talks' on Saturday morning, September 25. Use the following link to the CKNW 'Audio Vault' and set the hour at 9:00 AM.
http://www.cknw.com/...audiovault.html
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Canadian TSX, TSX Venture and Canadian Dollar Commentary for our Canadian clients updated for Monday, November 1:
The Canadian market moved sharply higher on Friday as all sectors rallied after the government reported strong economic growth for August. Rising metal prices are also lifting the indexes. The TSX gained 112.15 or 0.89% to 12676.24, nearing resistance at the 12710.19 high set on October 13.
Upside targets of 12,900 and 13,400 remain intact with downside risk of 12,200 at this time.
Molybdenum producer Thompson Creek jumped 12 percent, the most in 15 months, to C$12.28 after the China Securities Journal, citing an unidentified person, said the country is preparing to classify molybdenum as a national mining resource. China is the world's largest producer of the metal used in steelmaking, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
Silver Standard Resources Inc., which explores in Latin America, rallied 3.1 percent to C$24.80 after announcing the sale of two Canadian projects for C$450 million.
Ivanhoe Energy Inc., owner of the Tamarack oil sands project, jumped 14 percent, the most in eight months, to C$2.64. On Thursday, the company said it had produced oil from its second appraisal well at the Pungarayacu field in Ecuador, calling the result "an historic event."
Canadian Oil Sands Trust, the largest owner of the Syncrude project, slumped 4.2 percent to C$25.56 after reporting third- quarter cash flow that Brian Dutton, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG, said was in line with analysts' forecasts.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. increased 1.03 percent after the newspaper, quoting sources close to the government, said Canada is "leaning toward" approving BHP's takeover bid for the company.
Canada's gross domestic product grew as expected in August after shrinking the month before, led by wholesaling and manufacturing. Output rose 0.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of C$1.24 trillion ($1.21 trillion) in August following a 0.1 percent contraction in July.
Energy 287.95 2.11 (0.74%)
Financials 179.41 1.44 (0.81%)
Health Care 50.32 0.85 (1.72%)
Industrials 107.53 1.25 (1.18%)
Info Tech 29.41 0.25 (0.86%)
Metals & Mining 1,235.28 11.54 (0.94%)
Telecom 91.22 0.10 (0.11%)
Utilities 212.65 0.20 (0.09%)
Resistance 12,710, 12,900, 13,173, 13,400, 13,771, 13,875, 13,983, 14,157. Support is 12,200-12,300, 12,055, 11,750, 11,480, 11,380, 11,065, 10,990, 10,800, 10,600, 10,400, 10,384, 9500, 9300, 9140.
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CANADIAN TSX Venture:
Wow! The Venture rallied to another 26-month high as rising metal prices lift the index full of small-cap mining issues. The TSX Venture jumped 24.16 or 1.25% to 1950.31.
Resistance (target) is 1984. Have to calculate to new target when we get there. Meanwhile, the move is becoming a big extended, so I would be careful chasing stocks. Support is 1887, 1806, 1788, 1740, 1666, 1630, 1580, 1500, 1439, 1425, 1375, 1343, 1306, 1231.
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THE CANADIAN DOLLAR (using the FXC Exchange Traded Fund):
The Canadian Dollar rose slightly after economic news in Canada was better than that in the US. FXC gained 0.14 to 97.50. I am still a big bull on the Loonie and am comfortable sitting tight regardless of the risk of any 'nonsense' short-term move in the U.S. Dollar.
Resistance is 99.30, 100.00, 102.00, 110.00. Support is 95.96, 93.20, 92.50 91.82, 91.00, 89.75, 87.50 and 85.18.
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DAILY VR LIST:
Editors note: The Daily VR List here is abbreviated with the full list only available to Platinum subscribers by clicking on 'Current VR List' on the Home Page of VRtrader.com.
Canadian shares are listed at the bottom of each section with the title: 'XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX'.
Silver subscribers who find this useful should upgrade to Platinum where you can pull down VR charts for many securities and watch the patterns unfold for yourself. There is no technical service on the planet that posts Positive and Negative VR! Why? Because they are proprietary to VRtrader.com!
How do you use this list?
Volume Reversals are buy and sell triggers and are traders find them particularly useful, especially coming off market extremes as an indication of a change of direction. Use the VRs in conjunction with your other technical indicators and you've added a unique technical tool to your arsenal.
To see a visual representation of Volume Reversals , please go our Current Portfolio section and click on any recommended stock. Or, if you would like to get a VR Chart for a specific symbol, please click here. Please note that the list of symbols available is limited at this time.
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VOLUME REVERSALS FOR FRIDAY, OCTOBER 29, 2010:
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POSITIVE VRs:
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.. CANADIAN STOCKS ... Canadian Stocks
ERF.UN ENERPLUS RES FUND
FTS FORTIS INC
HOD HORIZONS BETAPRO NYME
HXU HORIZONS BETAPRO S&P/
MRU.A METRO INC CLASS A SUB CL A
NA.UN NATIONAL BANK OF CANA
POT.UN POTASH CORP
RIM RESEARCH IN MOTION LI
THI.UN TIM HORTON'S
XIC IUNITS COMPOSITE CDN
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U.S. STOCKS:
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AEROSPACE/DEFENSE Aerospace/Defense Products & S
AIM Aerosonic Corp
SIF Sifco Industries Inc
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Parts
TRW Trw Automotive Hldgs Corp
AUTOMOTIVE Recreational Vehicles
MPX Marine Products Corp
BANKING Foreign Regional Banks
FBP First Bancorp Holding Co
BANKING Money Center Banks
MTU Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
STD Banco Sntndr Cen Hsp Ads
BANKING Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks
AMNB American Natl Bnkshrs Va
WSFS Wsfs Financial Corp
BANKING Regional - Midwest Banks
BUSE First Busey Corp Cl A
BANKING Regional - Northeast Banks
ACFC Atlantic Coast Fed Corp
ALNC Alliance Financial Corp
BANKING Regional - Pacific Banks
BOCH Bank of Commerce Holdings CA
CWBC Community West Bancshrs
BANKING Regional - Southeast Banks
FBMS First Bancshares Inc (The) (MS
MSL Midsouth Bancorp
BANKING Regional - Southwest Banks
QCRH Qcr Hldgs Inc
BANKING Savings & Loans
BHL Berkshire Hills Bncorp
CHEV Cheviot Financial Corp
CHEMICALS Specialty Chemicals
CBM Cambrex Corp
FTK Flotek Industries Inc
CHEMICALS Synthetics
APFC American Pacific Corp
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Based Systems
CCUR Concurrent Computer Corp
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Peripherals
ZBRA Zebra Technologies Cp A
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Application Software
BMC Bmc Software Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Business Software & Services
CNIC Copernic Inc Common Stock
EPIQ Epiq Systems Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Healthcare Information Service
CAP Creative Computer Applic
HMSY Hms Holdings Corp
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Information Technology Service
NSTC Ness Technologies Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Technical & System Software
ALLT Allot Communications Ltd
SNX Synnex Corp
CONSUMER DURABLES Business Equipment
EFOI Energy Focus Inc
VIRC Virco Manufacturing Cp
CONSUMER DURABLES Electronic Equipment
DISH Echostar Communications Corp
CONSUMER DURABLES Toys & Games
HAS Hasbro Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Office Supplies
CRRC Courier Corp
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Packaging & Containers
BLL Ball Corp
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Paper & Paper Products
NSH Nashua Corp
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Personal Products
EL Estee Lauder Cos Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Rubber & Plastics
CSL Carlisle Companies Inc
FORD Forward Industries Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Textile - Apparel Clothing
RL Polo Ralph Lauren Corp
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Textile - Apparel Footwear & A
HLYS Heelys Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Business/Management Services
ARBX Arbinet-thexchange
BIDZ Bidz.com Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Consumer Services
LOV Spark Networks plc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Education & Training Services
STRA Strayer Education Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Personal Services
CSTR Coinstar Inc
NLCI Nobel Learning Community
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Rental & Leasing Services
UHAL Amerco
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Research Services
MAXY Maxygen Incorporated
REFR Research Frontiers Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Staffing & Outsourcing Service
ASGN On Assignment Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Technical Services
ENG Englobal Corp
URS Urs Corp
DRUGS Biotechnology
CADX Cadence Pharmaceuticals Inc
CORT Corcept Therapeutics
DRUGS Drug Manufacturers - Other
BIOD Biodel Inc
DUSA Dusa Pharmaceuticals Inc
ELECTRONICS Diversified Electronics
DLB Dolby Laboratories Inc
SFUN Saifun Semiconductors Ltd
ELECTRONICS Printed Circuit Boards
MFLX Multi-fineline Electronix Inc
ELECTRONICS Scientific & Technical Instrum
ALOG Analogic Corp
CGNX Cognex Corp
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Broad Line
GSIT GSI Technology Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Memory Chips
MIPS Mips Technologies Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor Equipment & Mate
ACLS Axcelis Technologies Inc
CREE Cree Incorporated
ENERGY Independent Oil & Gas
APU Amerigas Partners L.P.
EPD Enterprise Products Part
ENERGY Oil & Gas Drilling & Explorati
BDE Bois d'Arc Energy
ERF Enerplus Resources Fund
ENERGY Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
EXXI Energy XXI (Bermuda) Limited
FXEN Fx Energy Inc
ENERGY Oil & Gas Pipelines
NS Nustar Energy L.P.
SXL Sunoco Logistics Ptnrs Lp
ENERGY Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
ETP Energy Transfer Pntr Lp
FINANCIAL SERVICES Asset Management
MERR Merriman Curhan Ford Group Inc
MORN Morningstar Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Debt
ACG Acm Income Fund
BKK Blackrock Muni 2020
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Equity
AGG Aggregate Bond
BLU Blue Chip Value Fund Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Foreign
DFJ WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Fund
DGF Delaware Inv Glbl Div & Inc Fd
FINANCIAL SERVICES Credit Services
CSE Capitalsource Inc
DLLR Dollar Financial
FINANCIAL SERVICES Diversified Investments
ADJ SPX Acclerated Return Note
CCS Comcast Corp
FINANCIAL SERVICES Investment Brokerage - Nationa
COWN Cowen Group Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Investment Brokerage - Regiona
AI Arlington Investment Group
GBL Gabelli Asset Management
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Brewers
ABVC Ambev Companhia de Bebidas das
FOOD & BEVERAGE Farm Products
CALM Cal-Maine Foods Inc
FOOD & BEVERAGE Meat Products
PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corp
FOOD & BEVERAGE Processed & Packaged Goods
FRZ Reddy Ice Holdings Inc
JMBA Jamba Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Health Care Plans
AGP Amerigroup
HNT Healthnet Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Appliances & Equipment
DRAD Digirad Corporation
EDAP Edap Tms Sa Adr
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Instruments & Supplies
CMED China Medical Technologies Inc
LMAT LeMaitre Vascular Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Laboratories & Researc
MTOX Medtox Scientific
PMD Psychemedics Corp
HEALTH SERVICES Specialized Health Services
BIOS BioScrip Inc
HGR Hanger Orthopedic Group
INSURANCE Accident & Health Insurance
EIHI Eastern Insurance Holdings Inc
INSURANCE Property & Casualty Insurance
GLRE Greenlight Cap Re Cl A Ord
SCO Scor Ads
INSURANCE Surety & Title Insurance
FNF Fidelity National Finl
INTERNET Internet Information Providers
NTES Netease.com Inc
INTERNET Internet Service Providers
ESIC Easylink Services
IIJI Internet Initiative Ja
INTERNET Internet Software & Services
PCLN Priceline.com Inc
LEISURE Gaming Activities
GMTC Gametech Internat Inc
LEISURE Restaurants
EAT Brinker International
PFCB P F Chang's China Bistro
LEISURE Specialty Eateries
BDL Flanigan's Enterprse Inc
MANUFACTURING Diversified Machinery
GRC Gorman-Rupp Co
MANUFACTURING Industrial Equipment & Compone
VPF Valpey Fisher Corp
MANUFACTURING Machine Tools & Accessories
HDNG Hardinge Inc
MANUFACTURING Metal Fabrication
GHM Graham Corp
MANUFACTURING Textile Manufacturing
AIN Albany International A
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Heavy Construction
AGX Argan` Inc.
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Lumber
WY Weyerhaeuser Co
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Residential Construction
MDC M.D.C Holdings Inc
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Waste Management
AWX Avalon Holdings Corp
MEDIA Broadcasting - Radio
RC Grupo Radio Centro
MEDIA Marketing Services
CCO Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings
METALS & MINING Aluminum
AA Alcoa Inc
METALS & MINING Industrial Metals & Minerals
PZG Paramount Gold Mining Corp
USEG U.S. Energy Corp Wyo
METALS & MINING Nonmetallic Mineral Mining
BQI Oilsands Quest Inc
TGE TGC Industries Inc
REAL ESTATE Property Management/Developmen
FCEA Forest City Enterprise A
PCE Arizona Land Income Corp
REAL ESTATE REIT - Diversified/Industrial
EXR Extra Space Storage Inc
REAL ESTATE REIT - Residential
AEC Associated Estates Realty
PPS Post Properties Inc
RETAIL Catalog & Mail Order Houses
DLIA dELiA*s Inc
RETAIL Grocery Stores
BSI Blue Square Israel Ltd
GAP Great Atlantic & Pac Tea
RETAIL Home Furnishing Stores
KIRK Kirkland's Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Apparel Stores
LTD Limited Brands Inc
ZUMZ Zumiez Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Jewelry Stores
TIF Tiffany & Co
SPECIALTY RETAIL Specialty Retail
MED Medifast Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Sporting Goods Stores
GOLF Golfsmith International Holdin
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Communication Equipment
ADCT ADC Telecommunications Inc
CMRO Comarco Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Diversified Communication Serv
XING Qiao Xing Univ Telephone
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Processing Systems & Products
GCOM Globecomm Systems Inc
VII Vicon Industries Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Telecom Services - Foreign
CTEL City Telecom Hk Ltd Ads
MTE Mahanagar Telephone Nigam
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Wireless Communications
GRRF China Grentech Corp Limited AD
VIP Vimpel Communication Ads
TRANSPORTATION Shipping
DSX Diana Shipping Inc
UTILITIES Electric Utilities
BKH Black Hills Corp
OPTT Ocean Power Tech Inc
UTILITIES Gas Utilities
EPB El Paso Pipeline Partners
WHOLESALE Computers Wholesale
SCSC Scansource Inc
WSTG Wayside Technology Group Inc
WHOLESALE Drugs Wholesale
BJGP Beijing Medpharm Corp
WHOLESALE Electronics Wholesale
ORBT Orbit International Corp
VOXX Audiovox Corp
WHOLESALE Food Wholesale
DIT Amcon Distributing Co
WHOLESALE Industrial Equipment Wholesale
MIND Mitcham Industries Inc
WHOLESALE Wholesale
VCO Vina Concha Y Toro Ads
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NEGATIVE VRs
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.. CANADIAN STOCKS ... Canadian Stocks
COS.UN CANADIAN OIL SANDS TR
HOU HORIZONS CRUDE OIL BULL PLUS
HR.UN H&R REAL ESTATE INVES
HXD HORIZONS BETAPRO S&P/TSX BP A
XRE ISHARES CDN S&P/TSX C
--------------------------------------------
U.S. STOCKS:
--------------------------------------------
AEROSPACE/DEFENSE Aerospace/Defense Products & S
COL Rockwell Collins Inc
CW Curtiss Wright Corp
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Parts
SPW Spx Corp
AUTOMOTIVE Trucks & Other Vehicles
SPAR Spartan Motors Inc
BANKING Foreign Regional Banks
BAP Credicorp Ltd
KB Kookmin Bank
BANKING Money Center Banks
NBG National Bk Greece Ads
UBS Ubs Ag Ord. Shares
BANKING Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks
ANCX Access National Corp
FCNCA First Citizens Bancshr A
BANKING Regional - Midwest Banks
LKFN Lakeland Financial Corp
LNBB Lnb Bancorp
BANKING Regional - Northeast Banks
VIST Vist Financial Corp
BANKING Regional - Pacific Banks
BSRR Sierra Bancorp
PFBC Preferred Bank Los Angeles
BANKING Regional - Southeast Banks
BTFG Banctrust Financial Group Inc
CFNL Cardinal Financial Corp
BANKING Regional - Southwest Banks
CFR Cullen Frost Bankers
COBZ Cobiz Ixstorm.com Inc New
BANKING Savings & Loans
AF Astoria Financial Corp
ATBC Atlantic Bancgroup Inc
CHEMICALS Agricultural Chemicals
SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
SYT Syngenta Ag
CHEMICALS Synthetics
SHI Shanghai Petrochemical
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Based Systems
MXWL Maxwell Technologies Inc
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Peripherals
IN Intermec Inc
COMPUTER HARDWARE Networking & Communication Dev
CSCO Cisco Systems Inc
EZCH Lanoptics Ltd
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Application Software
PVSW Pervasive Software Inc
RNOW Rightnow Technologies Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Business Software & Services
ASUR Forgent Networks
CSGP Costar Group Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Healthcare Information Service
QSII Quality Systems Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Information & Delivery Service
RDCM Radcom Ltd
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Technical & System Software
BSQR Bsquare Corporation
NATI National Instruments Cp
CONGLOMERATES Conglomerates
GY Gencorp Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Electronic Equipment
PC Panasonic Corporation
PHG Koninklijke Philips Elec
CONSUMER DURABLES Home Furnishings & Fixtures
FBN Furniture Brands Intl
NTZ Natuzzi S.p.a.
CONSUMER DURABLES Housewares & Accessories
LANC Lancaster Colony Corp
NWL Newell Rubbermaid Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Toys & Games
MAT Mattel Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Packaging & Containers
SLGN Silgan Holdings Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Paper & Paper Products
NP Neenah Papers Inc
SWM Schweitzer Mauduit Internation
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Rubber & Plastics
ATR Aptargroup Inc
TG Tredegar Corporation
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Business/Management Services
ACN Accenture Ltd
AM American Greetings Cp A
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Education & Training Services
APOL Apollo Group Inc Cl A
LINC Lincoln Educational Services C
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Personal Services
PPD Pre-Paid Legal Svcs Inc
STEI Stewart Enterprises Cl A
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Rental & Leasing Services
HTZ Hertz Global Holdings Inc
UCO Universal Cmprssn Hldgs
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Research Services
CBLI Cleveland BioLabs Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Security & Protection Services
CKP Checkpoint Systems Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Staffing & Outsourcing Service
DHX Dice Holdings Inc
HHGP Hudson Highland Grp Inc W/i
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Technical Services
TTEK Tetra Tech Inc
DRUGS Biotechnology
CYPB Cypress Bioscience Inc
REGN Regeneron Pharm Inc
DRUGS Diagnostic Substances
MYGN Myriad Genetics Inc
DRUGS Drug Manufacturers - Major
GSK Glaxosmithkline Plc Adr
MRK Merck & Co
DRUGS Drug Manufacturers - Other
AGN Allergan Inc
CBST Cubist Pharmaceuticals
DRUGS Drug Related Products
PRGO Perrigo Co
ELECTRONICS Diversified Electronics
AEIS Advanced Energy Ind Inc
AMSC American Superconductor
ELECTRONICS Printed Circuit Boards
PKE Park Electrochemical Cp
RAVN Raven Industries Inc
ELECTRONICS Scientific & Technical Instrum
AFFX Affymetrix Inc
ANEN Anaren Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Integrated Cir
BRCM Broadcom Corp Cl A
CNXT Conexant Systems Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Memory Chips
NLST Netlist Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Specialized
DSTI Daystar Technologies Inc
FSLR First Solar Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor Equipment & Mate
MSPD Mindspeed Technologies Inc
NVMI Nova Measuring Instrmts.
ENERGY Independent Oil & Gas
BRY Berry Petroleum Co Cl A
CWEI Clayton Williams Energy
ENERGY Major Integrated Oil & Gas
CVX Chevron Corp
ENERGY Oil & Gas Drilling & Explorati
ME Mariner Energy Inc When Issued
ENERGY Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
BAS Basic Energy Services Inc
ENERGY Oil & Gas Pipelines
ETE Energy Transfer Equity LP
GEL Genesis Energy (L.P.)
ENERGY Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
SUN Sunoco Inc
TSO Tesoro Corp
FINANCIAL SERVICES Asset Management
AMG Affiliated Managers Grp
DUF Duff & Phelps Corp
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Debt
ADRA BLDRS Asia 50 ADR Index Fund E
BCV Bancroft Convertible Fd
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Equity
BME Blackrock Health Sciences Trus
BTA BlackRock Long-Term Municipal
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Foreign
FXF Rydex CurrencyShares Swiss Fra
GULF WisdomTree Middle East Dividen
FINANCIAL SERVICES Credit Services
ASFI Asta Funding Inc
BKCC Blackrock Kelso Cap Corp
FINANCIAL SERVICES Diversified Investments
AINV Apollo Investment Corp
MQC Millennium India Acq Co Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Investment Brokerage - Nationa
BGCP Bgc Partners Inc
BSC Bear Stearns Companies
FINANCIAL SERVICES Investment Brokerage - Regiona
GFIG Gfi Group
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Soft Drinks
AKOB Embotereva Cip (france)
CCH Coca-cola Hellenic Bottling Co
FOOD & BEVERAGE Confectioners
IPSU Imperial Sugar Company
FOOD & BEVERAGE Food - Major Diversified
ADM Archer Daniels Midland
FOOD & BEVERAGE Meat Products
BRID Bridgford Foods Corp
FOOD & BEVERAGE Processed & Packaged Goods
JVA Coffee Holding Co Inc
MLP Maui Land & Pineapple Co
HEALTH SERVICES Home Health Care
AMED Amedisys Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Hospitals
LPNT Lifepoint Hospitals
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Appliances & Equipment
AMMD American Medical Systems
ARTC Arthrocare Corp
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Instruments & Supplies
ACL Alcon Inc
ATEC Alphatec Holdings Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Laboratories & Researc
ARRY Array Biopharma Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Specialized Health Services
ANCI American CareSource Holdings I
INSURANCE Accident & Health Insurance
PFG Principal Financial Group
UNM Unumprovident Corp
INSURANCE Insurance Brokers
CISG Cninsure Inc
INSURANCE Life Insurance
ANAT American National Insur
ING Ing Groep Nv
INSURANCE Property & Casualty Insurance
ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd
IPCC Infinity Property & Casualty
INTERNET Internet Information Providers
BIDU Baidu.com Inc
EXPE Expedia Inc
INTERNET Internet Service Providers
GEX Globix Corp
INTERNET Internet Software & Services
CRH Coram Healthcare
GSOL Global Sources Ltd.
LEISURE Lodging
MHGC Morgans Hotel Group Co
LEISURE Resorts & Casinos
ASCA Ameristar Casinos Inc
LEISURE Restaurants
GTIM Good Times Restaurant
WEST Western Sizzlin Corp
LEISURE Sporting Activities
BWLA Bowl America Inc A
MANUFACTURING Diversified Machinery
CYD China Yuchai Int Ltd
GDI Gardner Denver Inc
MANUFACTURING Industrial Electrical Equipmen
FTEK Fuel Tech N.V.
GB Greatbatch Inc
MANUFACTURING Industrial Equipment & Compone
HEES H&E Equipment Services
SNHY Sun Hydraulics Corp
MANUFACTURING Machine Tools & Accessories
RBC Regal-Beloit Corp
MANUFACTURING Pollution & Treatment Controls
PURE Pure Bioscience
MANUFACTURING Textile Manufacturing
DXYN Dixie Group Inc The
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION General Building Materials
DW Drew Industries Inc
MLM Martin Marietta Material
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Lumber
KOP Koppers Holdings
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Residential Construction
CHCI Comstock Homebuilding Comp
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Waste Management
RSG Republic Services Inc
TRR Trc Companies Inc
MEDIA Broadcasting - TV
FSCI Fisher Comms
MEDIA CATV Systems
DISCA Discovery Holding Co Class A
MEDIA Entertainment - Diversified
DISCK Discovery Communications Inc
NWS News Corp Inc
MEDIA Marketing Services
SGK Schawk Inc
MEDIA Publishing - Periodicals/News
ENL Reed Elsevier Nv
MDP Meredith Corp
METALS & MINING Copper
SLT Sterlite Industries
METALS & MINING Industrial Metals & Minerals
ACI Arch Coal Inc
CNX Consol Energy Inc
METALS & MINING Nonmetallic Mineral Mining
CHBT China-Biotics Inc
METALS & MINING Silver
EXK Endeavour Silver Corp
METALS & MINING Steel & Iron
CMC Commercial Metals Co
CRS Carpenter Technol Corp
REAL ESTATE Mortgage Investment
DRL Doral Financial Corp
REAL ESTATE Property Management/Developmen
ZIPR Ziprealty Inc
REAL ESTATE REIT - Diversified/Industrial
CLP Colonial Properties Tr
FPO First Potomac Realty Trust
REAL ESTATE REIT - Healthcare Facilities
LTC Ltc Properties Inc
REAL ESTATE REIT - Hotel/Motel
HT Hersha Hospitality Trust
REAL ESTATE REIT - Residential
AGNC American Capital Agency Corp.
REAL ESTATE REIT - Retail
KRG Kite Realty Grp Tr
RETAIL Department Stores
KSS Kohl's Corp
RETAIL Discount
NDN 99 Cents Only Stores
TGT Target Corporation
RETAIL Drug Stores
CVS Cvs Corp
PSMT Pricesmart Inc
RETAIL Grocery Stores
RDK Ruddick Corp
VLGEA Village Super Market A
RETAIL Home Improvement Stores
HD Home Depot Inc
LOW Lowe's Companies Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Apparel Stores
ANF Abercrombie & Fitch Co
DSW DSW Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Specialty Retail
ODP Office Depot Inc
OSTK Overstock.com Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Communication Equipment
CBEY CBeyond Communications Inc
CMTL Comtech Telecommun Corp
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Diversified Communication Serv
PCTI Pc-Tel Incorporated
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Long Distance Carriers
GNCMA General Communications A
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Processing Systems & Products
TKLC Tekelec
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Telecom Services - Foreign
ATNI Atlantic Tele-Network
CHA China Telecom
TOBACCO Cigarettes
LO The Lorillard Group
PM Philip Morris International
TRANSPORTATION Air Services
PHIIK Petroleum Helicopter Nv
TRANSPORTATION Major Airlines
AMR Amr Corporation
TRANSPORTATION Regional Airlines
GIA Gulfstream International Group
JBLU Jetblue Airways Corp
TRANSPORTATION Shipping
TBSI TBS International Limited Clas
TNK Teekay Tankers Ltd
TRANSPORTATION Trucking
YRCW YRC Worldwide Inc
UTILITIES Diversified Utilities
CHG Ch Energy Group Inc
CMS Cms Energy Corp
UTILITIES Electric Utilities
D Dominion Resources Inc
DTE Dte Energy Co
UTILITIES Foreign Utilities
EOC Empresa Nac Elec Chile
KEP Korea Elec Pwr Ads
UTILITIES Gas Utilities
NJR New Jersey Resources Cp
NWN Northwest Natural Gas Co
UTILITIES Water Utilities
ARTNA Artesian Resources Corp Cl A
AWK American Water Works
WHOLESALE Auto Parts Wholesale
KAR Adesa Inc
LKQX Lkq Corporation
WHOLESALE Drugs Wholesale
ABC Amerisourcebergen Corp
WHOLESALE Electronics Wholesale
CELL Brightpoint Inc
WHOLESALE Food Wholesale
SYY Sysco Corp
WHOLESALE Industrial Equipment Wholesale
ARG Airgas Inc
TTES T-3 Energy Services Inc
WHOLESALE Medical Equipment Wholesale
HSIC Henry Schein Inc
MWIV MWI Veterinary Supply Inc
WHOLESALE Wholesale
DFS Department 56 Inc
--------------------------------------------
My 'Annual Forecast Model' (VR Forecaster Report) is now posted on the VRtrader.com website and covers cyclical projections for the Dow Industrials, the TSX, Gold, Crude Oil, Ten Year Interest Rate Yields and the US Dollar Index. The Model has been published since 1987 and has garnered a respectable following among traders and investors seeking an overall 'timing' tool for the major markets. Here is the link:
https://www.vrtrader...cribe/index.asp
--------------------------------------------
What is our true national debt?
http://www.truthin08.org/
--------------------------------------------
Money Show - Las Vegas, May 13, 2010 interview:
http://tinyurl.com/2aopqdd
--------------------------------------------
My PBS 'Nightly Business Report' interview should be posted this week on the NBR website for those die-hard fans who missed it. The link to use would be:
http://tinyurl.com/29jp28x
--------------------------------------------
BNN Interview Thursday, October 21, 2010:
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip364110
--------------------------------------------
Don't forget about the VR Watchlist:
http://www.vrtrader....n/watchlist.asp
You need to sign in at the www.vrtrader.com website to retrieve it!
-------------------------------------------- COMMENTARY:
--------------------------------------------
Repeating this article:
U.S. Midterm Elections, Obama and Iran
By George Friedman
We are a week away from the 2010 U.S. midterm elections. The outcome is already locked in. Whether the Republicans take the House or the Senate is close to immaterial. It is almost certain that the dynamics of American domestic politics will change. The Democrats will lose their ability to impose cloture in the Senate and thereby shut off debate. Whether they lose the House or not, the Democrats will lose the ability to pass legislation at the will of the House Democratic leadership. The large majority held by the Democrats will be gone, and party discipline will not be strong enough (it never is) to prevent some defections.
Should the Republicans win an overwhelming victory in both houses next week, they will still not have the votes to override presidential vetoes. Therefore they will not be able to legislate unilaterally, and if any legislation is to be passed it will have to be the result of negotiations between the president and the Republican Congressional leadership. Thus, whether the Democrats do better than expected or the Republicans win a massive victory, the practical result will be the same.
When we consider the difficulties President Barack Obama had passing his health care legislation, even with powerful majorities in both houses, it is clear that he will not be able to push through any significant legislation without Republican agreement. The result will either be gridlock or a very different legislative agenda than we have seen in the first two years.
These are not unique circumstances. Reversals in the first midterm election after a presidential election happened to Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. It does not mean that Obama is guaranteed to lose a re-election bid, although it does mean that, in order to win that election, he will have to operate in a very different way. It also means that the 2012 presidential campaign will begin next Wednesday on Nov. 3. Given his low approval ratings, Obama appears vulnerable and the Republican nomination has become extremely valuable. For his part, Obama does not have much time to lose in reshaping his presidency. With the Iowa caucuses about 15 months away and the Republicans holding momentum, the president will have to begin his campaign.
Obama now has two options in terms of domestic strategy. The first is to continue to press his agenda, knowing that it will be voted down. If the domestic situation improves, he takes credit for it. If it doesn't, he runs against Republican partisanship. The second option is to abandon his agenda, cooperate with the Republicans and re-establish his image as a centrist. Both have political advantages and disadvantages and present an important strategic decision for Obama to make.
The Foreign Policy Option
Obama also has a third option, which is to shift his focus from domestic policy to foreign policy. The founders created a system in which the president is inherently weak in domestic policy and able to take action only when his position in Congress is extremely strong. This was how the founders sought to avoid the tyranny of narrow majorities. At the same time, they made the president quite powerful in foreign policy regardless of Congress, and the evolution of the presidency over the centuries has further strengthened this power. Historically, when the president has been weak domestically, one option he has had is to appear powerful by focusing on foreign policy.
For presidents like Clinton, this was not a particularly viable option in 1994-1996. The international system was quiet, and it was difficult to act meaningfully and decisively. It was easier for Reagan in 1982-1984. The Soviet Union was strong and threatening, and an aggressive anti-Soviet stance was popular and flowed from his 1980 campaign. Deploying the ground-launched cruise missile and the Pershing II medium-range ballistic missile in Western Europe alienated his opponents, strengthened his position with his political base and allowed him to take the center (and ultimately pressured the Soviets into agreeing to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty). By 1984, with the recession over, Reagan's anti-Soviet stance helped him defeat Walter Mondale.
Obama does not have Clinton's problem. The international environment allows him to take a much more assertive stance than he has over the past two years. The war in Afghanistan is reaching a delicate negotiating state as reports of ongoing talks circulate. The Iraq war is far from stable, with
50,000 U.S. troops still there, and the Iranian issue is wide open. Israeli-Palestinian talks are also faltering, and there are a host of other foreign issues, ranging from China's increasing assertiveness to Russia's resurgent power to the ongoing decline in military power of America's European allies. There are a range of issues that need to be addressed at the presidential level, many of which would resonate with at least some voters and allow Obama to be presidential in spite of weak political support.
There are two problems with Obama becoming a foreign policy president. The first is that the country is focused on the economy and on domestic issues. If he focuses on foreign policy and the U.S. economy does not improve by 2012, it will cost him the election. His hope will be foreign policy successes, or at least the perception of being strong on national security, coupled with economic recovery or a plausible reason to blame the Republicans. This is a tricky maneuver, but his presidency no longer offers simple solutions.
The second problem is that his presidency and campaign have been based on the general principle of accommodation rather than confrontation in foreign affairs, with the sole exception of Afghanistan, where he chose to be substantially more aggressive than his predecessor had been. The place where he was assertive is unlikely to yield a major foreign policy success, unless that success is a negotiated settlement with the Taliban. A negotiated settlement will be portrayed by the Republicans as capitulation rather than triumph. If he continues on the current course in Afghanistan, he will seem to be plodding down an old path and not pioneering a new one.
Interestingly, if Obama's goal is to appear strong on national security while regaining the center, Afghanistan offers the least attractive venue. His choices are negotiation, which would reinforce his image as an accommodationist in foreign policy, or continued war, which is not particularly new territory. He could deploy even more forces into Afghanistan, but then would risk looking like Lyndon Johnson in 1967, hurling troops at the enemy without a clear plan. He could, of course, create a massive crisis with Pakistan, but it would be extremely unlikely that such an effort would end well, given the situation in Afghanistan. Foreign policy presidents need to be successful.
There is little to be done in Iraq at the moment except delay the withdrawal of forces, which adds little to his political position. Moreover, the core problem in Iraq at the moment is Iran and its support of disruptive forces. Obama could attempt to force an Israeli-Palestinian settlement, but that would require Hamas to change its position, which is unlikely, or that Israel make massive concessions, which it doesn't think it has to do. The problem with Israel and the Palestinians is that peace talks, such as those under Clinton at Camp David, have a nasty tendency to end in chaos.
The European, Russian and Chinese situations are of great importance, but they are not conducive to dramatic acts. The United States is not going to blockade China over the yuan or hold a stunning set of meetings with the Europeans to get them to increase their defense budgets and commit to more support for U.S. wars. And the situation regarding North Korea does not have the pressing urgency to justify U.S. action. There are many actions that would satisfy Obama's accomodationist inclinations, but those would not serve well in portraying him as decisive in foreign policy.
The Iranian Option
This leaves the obvious choice: Iran. Iran is the one issue on which the president could galvanize public opinion. The Republicans have portrayed Obama as weak on combating militant Islamism. Many of the Democrats see Iran as a repressive violator of human rights, particularly after the crackdown on the Green Movement. The Arabian Peninsula, particularly Saudi Arabia, is afraid of Iran and wants the United States to do something more than provide $60 billion-worth of weapons over the next 10 years. The Israelis, obviously, are hostile. The Europeans are hostile to Iran but want to avoid escalation, unless it ends quickly and successfully and without a disruption of oil supplies. The Russians like the Iranians are a thorn in the American side, as are the Chinese, but neither would have much choice should the United States deal with Iran quickly and effectively. Moreover, the situation in Iraq would improve if Iran were to be neutralized, and the psychology in Afghanistan could also shift.
If Obama were to use foreign policy to enhance his political standing through decisive action, and achieve some positive results in relations with foreign governments, the one place he could do it would be Iran. The issue is what he might have to do and what the risks would be. Nothing could, after all, hurt him more than an aggressive stance against Iran that failed to achieve its goals or turned into a military disaster for the United States.
So far, Obama's policy toward Iran has been to incrementally increase sanctions by building a weak coalition and allow the sanctions to create shifts in Iran's domestic political situation. The idea is to weaken President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and strengthen his enemies, who are assumed to be more moderate and less inclined to pursue nuclear weapons. Obama has avoided overt military action against Iran, so a confrontation with Iran would require a deliberate shift in the U.S. stance, which would require a justification.
The most obvious justification would be to claim that Iran is about to construct a nuclear device. Whether or not this is true would be immaterial. First, no one would be in a position to challenge the claim, and, second, Obama's credibility in making the assertion would be much greater than George W. Bush's, given that Obama does not have the 2003 weapons-of-mass-destruction debacle to deal with and has the advantage of not having made such a claim before. Coming from Obama, the claim would confirm the views of the Republicans, while the Democrats would be hard-pressed to challenge him. In the face of this assertion, Obama would be forced to take action. He could appear reluctant to his base, decisive to the rest. The Republicans could not easily attack him. Nor would the claim be a lie. Defining what it means to almost possess nuclear weapons is nearly a metaphysical discussion. It requires merely a shift in definitions and assumptions. This is cynical scenario, but it can be aligned with reasonable concerns.
As STRATFOR has argued in the past, destroying Iran's nuclear capability does not involve a one-day raid, nor is Iran without the ability to retaliate. Its nuclear facilities are in a number of places and Iran has had years to harden those facilities. Destroying the facilities might take an extended air campaign and might even require the use of special operations units to verify battle damage and complete the mission. In addition, military action against Iran's naval forces would be needed to protect the oil routes through the Persian Gulf from small boat swarms and mines, anti-ship missile launchers would have to be attacked and Iranian air force and air defenses taken out. This would not solve the problem of the rest of Iran's conventional forces, which would represent a threat to the region, so these forces would have to be attacked and reduced as well.
An attack on Iran would not be an invasion, nor would it be a short war. Like Yugoslavia in 1999, it would be an extended air war lasting an unknown number of months. There would be American POWs from aircraft that were shot down or suffered mechanical failure over Iranian territory. There would be many civilian casualties, which the international media would focus on. It would not be an antiseptic campaign, but it would likely (though it is important to reiterate not certainly) destroy Iran's nuclear capability and profoundly weaken its conventional forces. It would be a war based on American strengths in aerial warfare and technology, not on American weaknesses in counterinsurgency. It would strengthen the Iranian regime (as aerial bombing usually does) by rallying the Iranian public to its side against the aggression. If the campaign were successful, the Iranian regime would be stronger politically, at least for a while, but eviscerated militarily. A successful campaign wo uld ease the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, calm the Saudis and demonstrate to the Europeans American capability and will. It would also cause the Russians and Chinese to become very thoughtful.
A campaign against Iran would have its risks. Iran could launch a terrorist campaign and attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, sending the global economy into a deep recession on soaring oil prices. It could also create a civil war in Iraq. U.S. intelligence could have missed the fact that the Iranians already have a deliverable nuclear weapon. All of these are possible risks, and, according to STRATFOR's thinking, the risks outweigh the rewards. After all, the best laid military plan can end in a fiasco.
We have argued that a negotiation with Iran in the order of President Richard Nixon's reversal on China would be a lower-risk solution to the nuclear problem than the military option. But for Obama, this is politically difficult to do. Had Bush done this, he would have had the ideological credentials to deal with Iran, as Nixon had the ideological credentials to deal with China. But Obama does not. Negotiating an agreement with Iran in the wake of an electoral rout would open the floodgates to condemnation of Obama as an appeaser. In losing power, he loses the option for negotiation unless he is content to be a one-term president.
I am arguing the following. First, Obama will be paralyzed on domestic policies by this election. He can craft a re-election campaign blaming the Republicans for gridlock. This has its advantages and disadvantages; the Republicans, charging that he refused to adjust to the electorate's wishes, can blame him for the gridlock. It can go either way. The other option for Obama is to look for triumph in foreign policy where he has a weak hand. The only obvious way to achieve success that would have a positive effect on the U.S. strategic position is to attack Iran. Such an attack would have substantial advantages and very real dangers. It could change the dynamics of the Middle East and it could be a military failure.
I am not claiming that Obama will decide to do this based on politics, although no U.S. president has ever engaged in foreign involvement without political considerations, nor should he. I am saying that, at this moment in history, given the domestic gridlock that appears to be in the offing, a shift to a foreign policy emphasis makes sense, Obama needs to be seen as an effective commander in chief and Iran is the logical target.
This is not a prediction. Obama does not share his thoughts with me. It is merely speculation on the options Obama will have after the midterm elections, not what he will choose to do.
--------------------------------------------
Wall Street Turns Blind Eye as Jobs Just Vanish
By: Robert Wiedemer
The stock market may be in heaven over the thought of more printed money coming from the Fed.
Goldman Sachs just estimated that it will be as much as $2 trillion an increase of about 250 percent in our 2008 money supply. That's a big increase and that has made the Street very happy smiles all around and the market is up very nicely.
But let's take a look at some real economic news that came out recently that no one on the Street seemed to care about.
Will the Stock Market Plunge 50% (or More) Taking Your Retirement With It? Click Here
Buried in the jobs report for September was a minor adjustment to past job reports. The September jobs report wasn't good, showing a loss of 95,000 jobs, which the Street took as great news since they think that will scare the Fed into printing even more money even faster what could be better?
But it was the adjustment that was most important. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said they expected to adjust downward the amount of jobs created in 2010 by 366,000. That's a lot of jobs. In fact, since the BLS has reported that we have only created 613,000 jobs so far this year that adjustment just wiped out more than half the number of jobs created this year.
Why the big adjustment? It's an adjustment for the birth/death rate of businesses. The BLS surveys businesses to get their jobs data but they can't get accurate data from new businesses or failing businesses so they make an estimate on how many jobs those businesses created based on trends from the last five years.
Of course, the growth rate for jobs over the last five years has been pretty different from the last two years. So, no surprise that after the BLS reviews unemployment insurance records toward the end of this year, its estimates have been adjusted downward. In fact, last year the BLS adjusted the number of jobs created downward by 902,000.
When there are so few jobs being created, these are big adjustments. The adjustments in 2009 and 2010 were the biggest since the data began being gathered in 1979. We could complain about the statistical methods being used by the BLS (figures never lie, but liars always figure), but what's more interesting is that the stock market didn't even seem to notice or care that we had just wiped out half the jobs created in this country.
However, they cared a whole lot when those jobs were reported as created each month during the past year and studied the figures for every bit of good news they could find to show that the economy was doing better than expected and boost the market. But, when those jobs were reported to have been a fake, the Street didn't mind a bit.
The Street seemed to go out of their way to consciously ignore that data. Maybe they thought it was more good news and would encourage the Fed to print money, but nobody said that. They just ignored the adjustment. It's also not just a one month issue it's very telling about the poor state of the economy.
We have essentially created almost no jobs this year. In fact, ADP, the private payroll-processing company, says we have only created 51,000 jobs.
The government's job adjustment is too big to put a good spin on it, so the Street just ignores it. Why the bias? In a word cheerleading.
It's the same mentality that says printing money is good look only at a short-term good side and don't care about any long term bad side. It follows a simple cheerleading mantra: If you don't have anything good to say, don't say anything at all.
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Election Day and the Fed: Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact
By: David Frazier
Seven days from now, Americans across the country will elect government officials to represent them in the U.S. Congress and in their respective states. The following day, the Federal Reserve will issue its latest statement regarding the Fed's monetary-policy plans for the months ahead.
Recent election polls indicate that members of the Republican Party will take control of the House of Representatives and gain seats in the Senate.
Meanwhile, most stock-market participants and economists expect the Federal Reserve to announce on Nov. 3 that it will soon begin a new wave of quantitative easing - that it will increase the amount of money that banks can lend by purchasing large amounts of U.S. government securities.
How to Make Money Off Barack Obama's $819 Billion "Stimulus Plan"
As a result of those expectations, stock prices trended higher during the past eight weeks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1139 points (11.5 percent) and the S&P 500 Index advancing 13 percent from Sept. 1 to Oct. 25.
Although some stock-market participants expect stocks to continue to rally during the weeks ahead, my experience suggests that stocks might pull back substantially following the outcome of the midterm elections and the Federal Reserve's announcement on its monetary policy. That's because investors have likely already factored those factors into the market.
If the Fed doesn't give a clear indication of the amount of government securities that it might purchase during the months ahead, or if it indicates that it will purchase a lesser amount of those securities than current stock-market participants expect, there's a good chance that stocks will fall sharply during the week ending Nov. 5.
I therefore urge you to not get too excited about the recent advances in stock prices.
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Dems 'Unleash Paroxysm of Spending' to Beat GOP
The New York Times reported late Friday that "Democratic candidates have unleashed a last-minute paroxysm of spending" to defeat Republican candidates in key House races across the nation.
The paper said that the last-ditch Democratic effort was being funded democrats,spending,midterm,electionsby " huge expenditures from the Democratic campaign committee, which, as of mid-October, had more than twice the amount of money in the bank as the National Republican Congressional Committee."
The Times detailed that the Democratic campaign committee spent $24 million in 68 of the 109 House races, "compared with the $12.5 million across 59 contests by its Republican counterpart."
The report continued: "On top of the party committee's spending, Democratic-oriented outside groups, led by labor unions and others, outspent Republican-oriented groups in competitive House races, $7.4 million to $6.9 million, according to the Times analysis. Meanwhile, the Democratic House candidates outspent Republicans, $12.3 million to $7.7 million, on television in competitive races over the last week, based on data from Campaign Media Analysis Group."
Soft money for Democratic candidates has come from public employee unions. Last week the Wall Street Journal reported that such unions were pumping $88 million to save Democrats in contested races across the nation.
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Peter Schiff:
There has been so much discussion recently about "QE 2" that you would think the entire financial sector were about to embark on a transatlantic cruise. Unfortunately, they, and we, are not so lucky. In the year 2010, "QE 2" doesn't refer to a sumptuous ocean liner, but a second, more extravagant round of "quantitative easing" - stimulus. In the past, this technique was simply called "printing money." As if the nation has not already suffered enough from the first round, Captain Ben Bernanke and the Fed are determined to compound the damage by hitting us with another monetary juggernaut. Their stated goal is to boost the economy and create jobs. However, since economic growth cannot be achieved by printing money, their QE 2 will sink just as surely as the Titanic.
The intent of QE 2 is to lower interest rates to promote job growth and avoid the apparently growing threat of deflation. But the very idea that the economy is weak because interest rates are too high is laughable. Deflation is the market's cure for the asset bubbles that have recently burst, so any attempt to avert it will only weaken the economy further.
In fact, one of the reasons the US economy is in such bad shape is that interest rates are already too low. Low rates have encouraged excess borrowing, by both individuals and governments, and discouraged saving, fueling new asset bubbles at the expense of legitimate investment. As a result, the dead weight of debt has simply overloaded our economy, and our creditors are getting nervous. What we need now is to make hard choices, not engage in more easing - to deleverage, not borrow more.
Worse still, by keeping rates too low, the Fed has enabled the US government to grow significantly larger than it otherwise could had its borrowing been restrained by higher rates. Absent these low rates, Washington likely wouldn't have passed expensive new healthcare and financial regulation reforms; they would be too busy trying to keep the lights on in the Capitol.
For this and other reasons, the bogeyman of deflation is really not a concern at all. It's not a threat because falling consumer prices could serve as a relief for many suffering from layoffs and pay cuts in the recession. Even if it were a threat, it's not even likely because so much liquidity has already been created and an infinite amount could still be created at will by the Fed. Consumer prices are already rising across the board, despite a contracting economy, so what's all this talk about deflation?
The Fed is quick to point to falling real estate prices. But a drop in real estate will no more cause consumer prices to fall than the real estate boom caused them to rise. Real estate prices are too high, and the economy will never truly recover unless they are allowed to fall. It is interesting that when real estate prices were rising, the Fed did not raise rates to bring them down, but now that they are falling, the central bank feels compelled to lower rates to prop them up. If falling real estate prices threaten deflation, why did the Fed not perceive an inflation threat when real estate prices were rising?
My thinking is that, at the end of the day, all this deflation talk is a red herring. The true purpose of QE 2 is to disguise the decreasing ability of the Treasury to finance its debts. As global demand for dollar-denominated debt falls, the Fed is looking for an excuse to pick up the slack. By announcing QE 2, it can monetize government debt without the markets perceiving a funding problem. If the truth were known, a real panic would ensue. So, the Fed pretends buying treasuries is simply part of its master plan to boost the economy, even though, in reality, it is simply acting as the buyer of last resort.
If the Fed really wanted to help the economy, it would raise rates quite dramatically. Instead of preparing for QE 2, it should be unloading the debt it purchased during QE 1. Of course, that is not so easy to do - which is precisely why I was against QE 1 from the beginning. However, even though the exit will be painful, going down with the ship will be even more unpleasant.
Higher interest rates and a commitment from the Fed to refrain from purchasing Treasury debt would force the government to dramatically reduce spending. If we combine less government spending with fewer regulations, reform our tax code in a way that stops punishing savings and investment, stop all government subsidies for real estate so that prices can fall to affordable levels, and allow all insolvent entities to fail, then a real recovery will take hold.
If the Fed refuses to set sail on QE 2, then her loyal passengers might complain, but at least the US will be on solid monetary ground as it tried to rebuild a viable economy. If instead we board QE 2 (and QE 3 and QE 4 thereafter), then we are headed to a sea full of icebergs called interest rate spikes, and all on board will surely drown in a sea of worthless Federal Reserve Notes.
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Bill Gross - Fed's program a Ponzi Scheme
On October 27th, Bill Gross, of Pimco, and Jeremy Grantham, a chief investment
strategist, lambasted the Fed's ultra-easy monetary policy. "The Fed's bond purchasing program is in fact inflationary, and, if truth be told, - a Ponzi scheme. It raises bond prices to create the illusion of high annual returns, but ultimately it reaches a dead end where those prices can no longer go up," Gross wrote.
Gross, who helps oversee more than $1.1-trillion at Pimco, added, "The Fed's QE-2
announcement will likely signify the end of a great 30-year bull market in bonds and
the necessity for bond managers and, yes, equity managers to adjust to a new environment," he said. Gross said Treasury rates may be "rock bottom," Grantham, who helps oversee over $100-billion, said Fed policy has resulted in extraordinary destructiveness and ruinous cost." "I would force the Fed to swear off manipulating asset prices through artificially low rates and asymmetric promises of help in tough times -- the Greenspan/Bernanke put," Grantham wrote to clients on Tuesday. He referred to Fed chief Ben Bernanke and his predecessor, "Easy" Al Greenspan. "It would be a better, simpler and less dangerous world, although one much less exciting for us students of bubbles," Grantham wrote in a report titled "Night of the Living Fed."
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From www.sirchartsalot.com:
Minnesota, Mining, and Manufacturing,(MMM.N) is considered a key barometer of broader global economic health because it makes everything from Scotch tape to respirators. 3-M also produces over 1,000 products for cars and roads, paint, all-weather pavement markings and sheeting for reflective signs. MMM's shares hit a 52-week high of $91.50 /share this week, up +22% since early June, fueled by the euro's
rally vs the US$, and stronger emerging currencies.
MMM has repeatedly beat expectations and posted a Q'3 profit of $1.1-billion, up from
$971 million a year ago. Yet breaking the close correlation with the currency markets,
MMM shares unexpectedly plunged 7% on October 28th, to $84.50, after its CEO said growth in the US and Western Europe is "uninspiring." MMM is shifting more of its business to emerging markets.
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John Paulson Says to Buy Dividend Stocks and Houses, Sell Bonds
At the end of last week, the market ripped higher presumably from hedge fund manager David Tepper's comments when he said he likes equities here. Now add to the mix another well known manager in John Paulson. His hedge fund Paulson & Co of course made billions from his bet against subprime as detailed in the book, The Greatest Trade Ever. Given his success, everyone now latches onto his every word, hoping for advice.
Paulson did divulge some of his latest views at a lecture for New York's University Club. Simply put, he said to buy stocks and sell bonds. His favorite stocks are blue-chips with dividends such as: Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) and Coca Cola (KO). Playing on his 'recovery' theme, he also continues to like Bank of America (BAC), Suntrust Banks (STI), and Regions Financial (RF).
Equities
Paulson says to simply replace low yielding bonds with higher yielding stocks. A 10 year Treasury yields around 2.6% and so stocks with earnings yields of 7-8% are much better options. While Paulson did not mention these names, a quick scan pulls up companies with even higher earnings yields such as Medtronic (MDT) at 9.43%, ConocoPhillips (COP) at 10.52%, and Microsoft (MSFT) at 8.53%.
Gold
We've examined John Paulson's gold fund in-depth in the past, and so it should come as no surprise that the hedge fund manager thinks the precious metal is headed higher. He says that gold (currently around $1,200) could hit $2,400 on monetary expansion alone and even $4,000 with significant inflation. His hedge funds offer a fund share class denominated in gold and Paulson himself has 80% of his assets in this class. Additionally, given his inflationist bent, Paulson thinks the U.S. Dollar will fall and that yields on Treasuries will rise. He has been buying 5 and 7 year calls on the 30-year bond yield. We've seen numerous hedge funds put on this type of trade before.
Housing
Lastly, Paulson thinks this is the best time to buy a home in fifty years, exclaiming that, "If you don't own a home, buy one. If you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home." Great, isn't that just the type of mentality that created the housing bubble in the first place? We realize he is using hyperbole to illustrate his point, but still. Given his prominence in the investing world these days, some people might actually take him literally. For more notes on Paulson's talk, head to Zero Hedge and to Forbes.
In terms of recent position movement from hedge fund Paulson & Co, we detailed its activist position in NovaGold Resources (NG) and sale of Centamin Egypt position.
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VRTrader Update
Started by
TTHQ Staff
, Nov 01 2010 03:47 PM
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