"Bloomberg Risk Takers" profiles Michael Burry, the former hedge-fund manager who predicted the housing market’s plunge.
He forecast that the bubble would burst as early as 2007, and he acted on his conviction by betting against subprime mortgages. The former head of Scion Capital LLC was profiled in Bloomberg columnist and bestselling author Michael Lewis' book "The Big Short".
http://www.bloomberg...isk-takers.html
Michael Burry Profile
Started by
stocks
, Dec 28 2013 09:18 AM
24 replies to this topic
#1
stocks
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Posted 28 December 2013 - 09:18 AM
-- -
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#2
Dex
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Posted 28 December 2013 - 11:03 AM
"Bloomberg Risk Takers" profiles Michael Burry, the former hedge-fund manager who predicted the housing market’s plunge.
He forecast that the bubble would burst as early as 2007, and he acted on his conviction by betting against subprime mortgages. The former head of Scion Capital LLC was profiled in Bloomberg columnist and bestselling author Michael Lewis' book "The Big Short".
http://www.bloomberg...isk-takers.html
That was then - what is he saying about now?
"The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you've got it made. "
17_16
17_16
#3
stocks
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Posted 29 December 2013 - 12:38 PM
Michael Burry's Vanderbilt lecture April 2011
Michael Burry runs through the causes of the RE bubble.
I took notes on his general comments and conclusions.
That our business and political leaders did not see the crisis coming is an indictment of how we choose and enable our leaders. Instead they targeted hedge funds with punitive subpoenas. I worry about the future of a nation that refuses to acknowledge the true causes of the crisis. An historic opportunity had been lost and America has chosen it's poison as it's cure.
QE seems to be working for now, but this is an invalid validation of what America is doing.
Bernanke says he is not printing money. I disagree. The public has not learned that short-sided easy strategies are the route to long term ruin. We never received the catharsis necessary for a re-evaluation. The toxic twins, fiat currency and an activist fed, are still firmly entrenched.
We need better leaders, but that is not going to happen. A problem cannot be solved if it is not acknowledged.
Home ownership should not be a policy of the government. The banking system needs to be broken up. 22 million public workers have no business unionizing against the taxpayers. Our country's math does not work. All this debt is a real tax on our future.
It is debtor's prison for our children. The bill has not yet come due yet except for savers and those on fixed income.
Entire nations can and have followed the wrong path for a very long time and do run aground. Legacies can sometimes be a fatal burden in a rapidly changing world, and common sense must prevail. It is not a time to blindly follow. Open a bank account in Canada.
When interest payments exceed tax revenue, we become a ponzi scheme. It's hard to pick that spot; our government leaders are in a teen-age state right now. Governments can last a lot longer that they should. A lot of what we "rather not happen," the dictators will get done.
It's hard to predict when, but I think we'll have a warning. One day will a treasury auction fail? I don't see that happening. It's too easy for the government to hide that. I don't know that you can wait for that.
Michael Burry runs through the causes of the RE bubble.
I took notes on his general comments and conclusions.
That our business and political leaders did not see the crisis coming is an indictment of how we choose and enable our leaders. Instead they targeted hedge funds with punitive subpoenas. I worry about the future of a nation that refuses to acknowledge the true causes of the crisis. An historic opportunity had been lost and America has chosen it's poison as it's cure.
QE seems to be working for now, but this is an invalid validation of what America is doing.
Bernanke says he is not printing money. I disagree. The public has not learned that short-sided easy strategies are the route to long term ruin. We never received the catharsis necessary for a re-evaluation. The toxic twins, fiat currency and an activist fed, are still firmly entrenched.
We need better leaders, but that is not going to happen. A problem cannot be solved if it is not acknowledged.
Home ownership should not be a policy of the government. The banking system needs to be broken up. 22 million public workers have no business unionizing against the taxpayers. Our country's math does not work. All this debt is a real tax on our future.
It is debtor's prison for our children. The bill has not yet come due yet except for savers and those on fixed income.
Entire nations can and have followed the wrong path for a very long time and do run aground. Legacies can sometimes be a fatal burden in a rapidly changing world, and common sense must prevail. It is not a time to blindly follow. Open a bank account in Canada.
When interest payments exceed tax revenue, we become a ponzi scheme. It's hard to pick that spot; our government leaders are in a teen-age state right now. Governments can last a lot longer that they should. A lot of what we "rather not happen," the dictators will get done.
It's hard to predict when, but I think we'll have a warning. One day will a treasury auction fail? I don't see that happening. It's too easy for the government to hide that. I don't know that you can wait for that.
-- -
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#4
stocks
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Posted 05 January 2014 - 09:53 AM
I expect interest rates will go up in 2-5 years, and I expect they will go up much more than people think. We could see the return of 10%-15% mortgage rates
we saw in the late 70s and into the 80s.
-- Michael Burry 2013 forecast
http://valuetinkering.com/?p=5
we saw in the late 70s and into the 80s.
-- Michael Burry 2013 forecast
http://valuetinkering.com/?p=5
-- -
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#5
AChartist
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Tim
Posted 05 January 2014 - 11:38 AM
My exit plan has now evolved to keeping off matrix assets,
when the interest rates go nuts, to convert assets into an offshore
annuity at higher interest in a hard currency and try to make it without SS.
This year is when I want to setup the offshore account.
This will really be enhanced by exiting stock accounts and 401k at the
right time if it happens that way for me, if I get that right.
There is going to be one window to exit stocks and take it off shore, one chance.
Bitcoin is a form of taking it offshore and one minor point of diversification, you
dont know which will work, various points of off matrix diversification are needed.
If I can get the off shore rental property running self sustainably will be a major goal
for later this year.
The slaves have bought a little time, the print-war-print commies turned their attention to
N. Africa resource wars and will want to keep the tax and mercenary slaves chasing the carrot a while longer.
"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know
some of them, and they don't work" M.Jordan
#6
stocks
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Posted 10 January 2014 - 05:07 AM
Monetary Tectonics: 50 Slides Illustrate Tug of War Between Inflation and Deflation
"Credit deflation, deleveraging, is compensated by very expansionary fed policies. The unintended consequences of these monetary interventions will result in increasing volatility, potentially deflationary phases and eventually
highly inflationary phases."
http://3.bp.blogspot...ectonics 15.png
http://3.bp.blogspot...Tectonics 7.png
Read more at http://globaleconomi...pmxLez5hrE5H.99
"Credit deflation, deleveraging, is compensated by very expansionary fed policies. The unintended consequences of these monetary interventions will result in increasing volatility, potentially deflationary phases and eventually
highly inflationary phases."
http://3.bp.blogspot...ectonics 15.png
http://3.bp.blogspot...Tectonics 7.png
Read more at http://globaleconomi...pmxLez5hrE5H.99
-- -
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#7
stocks
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Posted 22 January 2014 - 06:50 AM
Paul Krugman, Vanquished - Krugman Completely Missed the Financial Crisis (as did Greenspan & Bernanke) & Has Been Consistently Wrong About the Euro
Compare Michael Burry with Krugman; one predicted the crisis in detail and made a fortune, the other completely missed it (and won a Nobel Prize
)
In "Krugtron the Invincible," economics historian Niall Ferguson uses Paul Krugman's own words to filet the Keynesian economist. Ferguson's three-part, 7,421-word article is a pleasure to read, and not only for those interested in economics.
But on economics, perhaps the most devastating of Ferguson's takedowns is in Part 1 where he details Krugman's serial predictions about the imminent collapse of the euro currency. Ferguson provides quotes from no fewer than eleven articles, from April 2010 through July 2012, to demonstrate how wrong the economist was.
Read more: http://www.americant...l#ixzz2r7vIzMc0
Follow us: @AmericanThinker on Twitter | AmericanThinker on Facebook
Compare Michael Burry with Krugman; one predicted the crisis in detail and made a fortune, the other completely missed it (and won a Nobel Prize
)In "Krugtron the Invincible," economics historian Niall Ferguson uses Paul Krugman's own words to filet the Keynesian economist. Ferguson's three-part, 7,421-word article is a pleasure to read, and not only for those interested in economics.
But on economics, perhaps the most devastating of Ferguson's takedowns is in Part 1 where he details Krugman's serial predictions about the imminent collapse of the euro currency. Ferguson provides quotes from no fewer than eleven articles, from April 2010 through July 2012, to demonstrate how wrong the economist was.
Read more: http://www.americant...l#ixzz2r7vIzMc0
Follow us: @AmericanThinker on Twitter | AmericanThinker on Facebook
-- -
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#8
stocks
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Posted 28 January 2014 - 08:04 AM
Long-term weakness in housing: a generation of missing homebuyers
The housing bubble pulled forward a generation of buyers; the housing bust cost these buyers their homes and their good credit, removing many of them permanently from the housing market.
Indeed, the last housing bubble pulled forward a generation of future buyers. However, the current housing bubble (QE) has pulled forward a generation of future price gains, so the next housing bust will not only cost recent buyers their homes,
but their good credit as well.
http://ochousingnews...ing-homebuyers/
The housing bubble pulled forward a generation of buyers; the housing bust cost these buyers their homes and their good credit, removing many of them permanently from the housing market.
Indeed, the last housing bubble pulled forward a generation of future buyers. However, the current housing bubble (QE) has pulled forward a generation of future price gains, so the next housing bust will not only cost recent buyers their homes,
but their good credit as well.
http://ochousingnews...ing-homebuyers/
-- -
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#9
stocks
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Posted 16 February 2014 - 10:56 AM
Getting a grip on the realities of the federal budget
Two-thirds of all federal spending comes from just three programs -- Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid and national defense. Add interest on the federal debt, and you've accounted for 71 percent of the federal budget.
What this means in simple terms is that anyone wishing to cut government spending must address the issues of Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid and national defense. This problem is magnified by the fact that these areas account for about 85 percent of the spending growth anticipated in coming years. That number would be even higher if it weren't for the recent winding down of foreign wars.
On Social Security, politicians should get out of the middle and let workers select their own retirement ages. Those who want to retire earlier could pay more in Social Security taxes. Those who want to retire later could pay less. This can easily be structured to make the system financially solvent for future generations of retirees.
On Medicare/Medicaid, the answer cannot be found in some budget gimmick. The only solution is to lower the cost of medical care. This will require a fundamental change in health care policy so that individuals can make the decisions about their own medical care. The current approach of letting the government and insurance companies decide will never reduce costs.
When it comes to national security, the key question is to define our military mission. The current strategy is for the U.S. to play the world's policeman. A less expensive approach would be to focus our military efforts on defending the vital interests of the United States.
http://washingtonexa...article/2544040
Two-thirds of all federal spending comes from just three programs -- Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid and national defense. Add interest on the federal debt, and you've accounted for 71 percent of the federal budget.
What this means in simple terms is that anyone wishing to cut government spending must address the issues of Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid and national defense. This problem is magnified by the fact that these areas account for about 85 percent of the spending growth anticipated in coming years. That number would be even higher if it weren't for the recent winding down of foreign wars.
On Social Security, politicians should get out of the middle and let workers select their own retirement ages. Those who want to retire earlier could pay more in Social Security taxes. Those who want to retire later could pay less. This can easily be structured to make the system financially solvent for future generations of retirees.
On Medicare/Medicaid, the answer cannot be found in some budget gimmick. The only solution is to lower the cost of medical care. This will require a fundamental change in health care policy so that individuals can make the decisions about their own medical care. The current approach of letting the government and insurance companies decide will never reduce costs.
When it comes to national security, the key question is to define our military mission. The current strategy is for the U.S. to play the world's policeman. A less expensive approach would be to focus our military efforts on defending the vital interests of the United States.
http://washingtonexa...article/2544040
-- -
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
Defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformers seeking change,
UNTIL the status quo self-destructs from its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes.
#10
AChartist
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Tim
Posted 16 February 2014 - 03:52 PM
There is a blurb in ZH about German court ordering children to take care of their parents,
a precursor to social contract default?
I have a large scale scenerio interpreted, what they are up to.
If you are allowed to read it before passed, see if MyRA treasury is the internal usage dual currency dual taxation system,
see if it is really a zombie bank they will dump all demonocracy debt into, and flush it. Thus cleaning the FRN for military prowess and
sovereign self governance.
One of the lights the went off for over time, being a little slow on the uptake, the frn is just the liquid credit, basal I circa 1980
named the treasuries the level I cash currency reserve by fiat.
The MyRA is internal treasuries = internal dual currency
Connect with how they zombied and bankrupted thousands of banks, to extinquish toxic fraud.
a precursor to social contract default?
I have a large scale scenerio interpreted, what they are up to.
If you are allowed to read it before passed, see if MyRA treasury is the internal usage dual currency dual taxation system,
see if it is really a zombie bank they will dump all demonocracy debt into, and flush it. Thus cleaning the FRN for military prowess and
sovereign self governance.
One of the lights the went off for over time, being a little slow on the uptake, the frn is just the liquid credit, basal I circa 1980
named the treasuries the level I cash currency reserve by fiat.
The MyRA is internal treasuries = internal dual currency
Connect with how they zombied and bankrupted thousands of banks, to extinquish toxic fraud.
"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know
some of them, and they don't work" M.Jordan
