11/30/15
- Gold
- used in, 11/19, with minor edit
- price is very speculative
- price has retraced 50% approximately, $1086 (0.500), $1920- Sep/2011 - $252- Aug/1999.
- short term support zone (1) 1077.5-1044.8, 0.786 @1051.8, see chart 1
- short term support zone (2) 1044.8-1032.8 (historical price reference)
- imho: swing trade wait for reversal confirmation. 0.236 out of recent high 1191.4 to Low
- long term chart looks not bullish, see chart
- No doubt, the USD vs. dollar inverse correlation is active
- what is the force behind the strength of USD?
Gold
1. Fibonacci Zones
short term
- zone (1) 1077.5-1044.8, 0.786 @1051.8
- zone (2) 1044.8-1032.8 (historical price reference)
longer term
1920.20 (Sep/11)-682.80(Oct/08)
1155.49(0.618)-1103.52-1051.55-999.57-947.60(0.786) (quad division)
1920.20 (Sep/11)-252.00(Aug/99)
1175.35-1086.10
1086.10(0.500)-1036.89-987.68-938.46-889.25(0.618) (quad division)
Nov 30 1059.70-1056.20 session ongoing
Nov 29 1057.80-1056.10
Nov 27 1074.20-1051.10
Nov 26 1074.20-1069.20
Nov 25 1072.00-1068.50
Nov 24 1079.40-1073.20
Nov 23 1071.50-1067.30
Nov 20 1082.90-1082.90
Nov 19 1082.40-1077.40
data source: http://www.investing...historical-data
price breached the critical point 0.786 @1051.8 on 11/27 (1051.10). fell “we are getting there” but without bouncing upward in the next few sessions there is a chance price may slip into zone 2 (1041.5-1032.8), let’s go setp by step.
chart 1, time stamp November 19, 2015, 3:52:19 PM
2 MACD
setting 1 [8,13,2][8,21,2][8,34,2][8,55,2],
setting 2 [8,13,2][13,21,2][21,34,2][34,55,2]
use middle point, relative large time interval ( 8 – 55 ), so the third parameter is irrelevant (removed from the chart). In basic, setting 1 use 8 days moving average to compare with the longer time moving averages so that the dynamic of the cycle is exposed explicitly; setting 2 gives a check whether cycles aligns in a synchronous mode .
PHYS ( gold proxy)
GDX
3 Analysts’ outlook
Gold Is Only Going to Get Worse - Goldman Outlook
Debarati Roy and Eddie van their Walt, July 28, 2015 — 4:00 PM
Goldman Outlook
http://www.bloomberg...ls-lower-prices
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Jeffrey Currie, who told investors to sell before the 2013 slump, has said the metal could fall below $1,000. Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.’s Barnabas Gan, the most-accurate forecaster of precious metals over the past two years based on rankings compiled by Bloomberg, predicts $1,050 by December.
Goldman Sachs Says Fed Raising Rates in December to Hit Gold
Jake Lloyd-Smith October 21, 2015 — 8:33 PM EDT
Gold price forecast to drop to $1,000 an ounce over 12 months
http://www.bloomberg...oldman-predicts
Gold Price: Here’s What Goldman Sachs Gets Wrong on Precious Metals
http://www.profitcon...recious-metals/
USD
- No doubt, the USD vs. dollar inverse correlation is active
USD to test the late March high 100.78
see chart: http://forexrainbow....82314634810.jpg
long term range 121.02 (July/01)-70.69, 0.618@101.69
resistance 100.78, 101.8-102.15
see chart http://forexrainbow....23000392801.jpg
Nov 30 100.35-100.10 session ongoing
Nov 29 100.19-100.11
Nov 27 100.25-099.70
Nov 26 099.96-099.76
Nov 25 100.23-099.36
Nov 24 099.84-099.52
Nov 23 099.68-100.06
data source: http://www.investing...historical-data
Will The US Dollar Index Top With A Fed Rate Hike?
Ryan Detrick November 23, 2015
http://www.seeitmark...ate-hike-15008/
Watch out for these possible curve balls for markets in December
Barbara Kollmeyer, Nov 24, 2015 8:53 a.m. ET
http://www.marketwat...&Link=obnetwork
Yuan
Yuan historical chart
misc. currency vs. USD before Yuan’s devaluation
in the time period 07/14-07/15 , quite a few currency devalued vs. USD
Yuan vs. USD as of 11/22/15
China’s central bank shocked markets on 11th August when it devalued its currency
percentage wise was “small”, so it has “room” for “large” % devaluation
consequence:
China Is Already Doing Janet Yellen's Job for Her
Carl J Riccadonna RICCANOMIX August 12, 2015
http://www.bloomberg...n-s-job-for-her
A strong currency has created headwinds for the U.S. economy through a range of channels. Latest actions of the Chinese central bank will intensify the negative impact by fostering more dollar appreciation. The U.S. already runs a significant trade deficit with China, and a 1.9 percent Yuan devaluation announced Tuesday will further exacerbate it.
China’s Doing Yellen’s Job and Creating a Trillion Dollar Profit Pivot
Keith Fitz-Gerald Aug 12, 2015
http://totalwealthre...r-profit-pivot/
Yuan’s Outlook:
Masters of the Finance Universe Are Worried About China
http://www.bloomberg...uan-devaluation
Tepper, the billionaire owner of Appaloosa Management, said that the Chinese Yuan is massively overvalued and needs to fall further. His comments follow similar forecasts from some of the biggest hedge fund managers, including Crispin Odey, founder of the $12 billion Odey Asset Management, who predicts China will devalue the Yuan by at least 30 percent
BAML: Get ready for the biggest Chinese devaluation in more than 20 years
Mike Bird 11/23/15
http://www.businessi...luation-2015-11
Goldman sees sudden US dollar rally as major risk to Chinese economy in 2016
November 23, 2015 - 4:20PM Vesna Poljak
http://www.smh.com.a...123-gl5dmt.html
"We think the biggest risks lie in spillovers from a sharp slowdown in China and/or a large [US] dollar appreciation," Goldman warns. "Our modeling work shows that both would likely hit China hardest."
Yuan’s SDR inclusion – developing news
http://www.bbc.com/n...siness-34957580
If Beijing's wish is granted later on Monday (11/30/15), some analysts have suggest that by 2030 the yuan will become one of the top three major international currencies, together with the dollar and the euro.
Fundamental 2: Euro vs. USD
- what is the force behind the strength of USD?
: Fictitious Economy cycle moves into the stage of gaining capital.control
Kosovo War ( from 28 February 1998 until 11 June 1999 ) was a major time stamp overlapped with the birth of the Euro ( 1 January, 1999) . Another major time stamps was the ECB’s QE ( On Jan 22, 2015, ECB unveils €1.1). ECB’s QE marks the beginning of Fictitious Economy in Euro zone. When two equally sized Fictitious Economy coexists, it is the warm bed for the destabilization of the global order. in particular, US QE ends and Euro Zone is entering the early stage of the cycle, the “conflict” is unavoidable....... (FWIW, a highly condensed geoeconomics topic)
keywords: Triffin dilemma, Fictitious Economy
