363 replies to this topic

[tsharp]

Until proven otherwise, this is what I think the outcome will be... time will tell.

 

Link to SP00 240-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/gcfqmkgk9/

 

[tsharp]

I leave a caveat on the last post that wave-ii could be a truncated c-wave, and if so, then the market is likely to proceed upward to the ~2350 range without any real pullback, though I would rather see a day or two of weakness to allow wave-c to play out, with positive divergence on the momentum line, then strongly upward to the ~2350 range, some sideways, then upward again to the ~2500 level to possibly complete wave-iii of iii... I think this final thrust is of the blow-off of 1929 variety, so will go much higher and take longer than most suppose... I think perhaps as high as ~3600 SPX over the next 12-18 months.  

 

Otherwise, the broad market is still in an IT and LT upward move, as shown in the various charts below.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:   https://postimg.org/image/607op3849/

 

 

Link to SPX daily fast momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/tslleczix/

 

 

Link to SPX daily slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/srlcp8ijd/

 

 

Link to SPX weekly fast momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/cumksiq55/

 

 

Link to SPX weekly slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/nvhpxjie1/

 

 

Link to SOX weekly slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/7lrjun7q1/

 

 

Link to BKX weekly slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/pd3693n4p/

 

 

Link to RUT weekly slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/h8v24d0pl/

 

 

Link to IWM weekly slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/e3age5i3d/

 

 

Link to NYA weekly slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/vum2slxi1/

 

[tsharp]

I'm not saying this cannot breakout, but at this moment, I see a bearish flag formation, which if it plays out, would bring the SP00s back down to the mid-2260s, or lower... time will tell.

 

Link to SP00 60-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/fyoih793t/

 

[tsharp]

With all the overlapping of structure this past week, I wonder if wave-i didn't top today, and next week may be downward in a wave-ii... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/421xtudi1/

 

[tsharp]

Two charts today... the SPX daily with the slow momentum... showing that indeed the momentum peak has not yet occurred, and in fact, the indicator line broke to new highs and is not that very far from exceeding 2013 highs... please keep in mind, that the last time the momentum peak occurred, the SPX pushed upward another 500 points before finally hitting its price peak.

 

Then also my SPX EW count... I have ~2350 as the next fib extension, and a possible take-a-rest point for the SPX, but there is no guarantee there will be any resting to jump in, and in a panic, the masses get in where they can, thus pushing it on upward to the next fib level of ~2500... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX daily slow momentum chart:  https://www.facebook...harpincharlotte

 

 

Link to SPX EW count chart:  https://postimg.org/image/syice1j2x/

 

[dowdeva]

Tsharp,

 

I have been lurking here for a while and want to thank you for your clear and concise, in depth commentary on the SPX.

 

I am only a little familiar with Elliot Wave theory , and wanted to ask you a hypothetical question. Say this summer was 'the' top for several years. Would that fit in to one of your possibilities, and if so, would this be a wave 5, or even a wave 5 of 3, and not a 3 of 3, as many believe?

 

And if the SPX would decline to 250, and overlapped the last low, could that fit in somehow? As I said, I am not an Elliot Wave follower. Just curious.

 

I also am so impressed in your with the love you have for your family and your commitment to raising them that you have expressed in your posts.

 

Best regards,

 

~D

[tsharp]

Tsharp,

 

I have been lurking here for a while and want to thank you for your clear and concise, in depth commentary on the SPX.

 

I am only a little familiar with Elliot Wave theory , and wanted to ask you a hypothetical question. Say this summer was 'the' top for several years. Would that fit in to one of your possibilities, and if so, would this be a wave 5, or even a wave 5 of 3, and not a 3 of 3, as many believe?

 

And if the SPX would decline to 250, and overlapped the last low, could that fit in somehow? As I said, I am not an Elliot Wave follower. Just curious.

 

I also am so impressed in your with the love you have for your family and your commitment to raising them that you have expressed in your posts.

 

Best regards,

 

~D

 

Thank  you for the kind words... I will soon update my take on the longer-term map I supposed back in Feb... while the market did not move as quickly as I thought it could, the elections and brexit were certainly concerns I needed to give more weight to.  With the SPX finally hitting the 2350 level today, and that same level being a fib extension, it seems this would be a fine place for a breather, but I see the SPX pushing much higher from here, say to the next fib extension at the ~2500 level by summer, then some sideways, then upward again to say the ~2900 level, before another decent chance to actually make something shorting the market.  It may drop back to the ~2500 level, but then the last blow-off could take it back upward to the ~3600 level before an IT or even a LT top is finally realized.  What happens after that is quite honestly a really tricky matter, and it will also depend on the political will of the nation, and we don't go there on these boards.  

 

You know my saying... time will tell.  

 

Thanks again, and I hope I answered your questions for you.

 

-Tim

[tsharp]

Okay then, the SPX finally arrived at the fib .146 extension at the ~2350 level today... finally!  

 

IF there is to be some kind of a breather before resuming upward to the next fib extension of .236 at the ~2500 level, this would be it... note the slow indicator line on the weekly also hit a latent UTL today, so that could also help it come to a bit of a pause.  

 

The daily slow momentum indicator exceeded the 2013 high today, that high was 202.27, hit on 5/20/13, we closed today at 202.49, yet there is still one higher high, as can be seen from the DTL, and that dates back to 10/26/07 with a close of 269.80, so there is quite a bit to go to exceed that high, yet I do think at some point, this move will.  

 

The weekly fast momentum indicator also broke through its last DTL and printed a new relative high today, thus confirming no IT or LT top at this time.  Interesting times... let's see where we go next... time will tell!

 

Link to SPX daily slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/vl077dzh5/

 

 

Link to SPX weekly fast momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/fvok09om1/

 

 

Link to SPX weekly slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/dfmqmf6jd/

 

[tsharp]

So it appears the pause or slight pullback I mentioned yesterday is right on time.  Armstrong has a small directional change for today, then two more for next Monday and Tuesday, so this could be a few days of pause... time will tell.

 

Armstrong article:  https://www.armstron...-looking-ahead/

[tsharp]

While my work shows the IT and LT trends still upward, I have the ST trend as ready to roll over or at least spend some time in this range to work-off some momentum issues.  The hourly SPX has been in negative divergence since late last month, and I've added the thick fuchsia bar to show the most current negative divergence.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:   https://postimg.org/image/kggaj882h/