363 replies to this topic

[tsharp]

Okay then... two of the targets have been hit so far...

 

Link to SP00 240-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/si87c4ic9/

 

[tsharp]

There are numerous valid fractal counts possible at this time... I haven't changed the count, though I knew the SPX was due for a correction, so when we find a bottom and the indicators signal it's time to move back upward, I will re-label the chart.  

 

Until then, the SPX has come down to the lowest UTL, AND the zero line, so it is likely to find some support for the moment.  I would like to see a positive divergence and an upward DTL break on the indicator line before taking a new position on the long side... until then, still short via SPY LEAP options.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/ml4bvb17d/

 

[tsharp]

Armstrong sent this out this morning... note the Dow line in the sand was 20,692, which was not only broken but closed below... seemingly, he is also suggesting more downside ahead:

 

https://www.armstron...market-recap-4/

[tsharp]

I continued to watch the SP00s test lower-lows over night, reaching towards the next TL below, though I kind of wonder if the low won't be much lower... perhaps down at the ~2280 range... twt.

 

Link to SP00 240-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/705dubis9/

 

[tsharp]

It sure seems another leg down is needed to washout the ST overbought condition... on the SP00s, it seems a bear flag was broken today to the downside, which if it plays out, suggests an ST low could target the ~2300-2280 range... as always... time will tell.

 

Link to SP00 240-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/pk2jxupcp/

 

[tsharp]

As for the SPX, it seems the news of no vote today on the replacement healthcare bill caused what would have been a gain for the day to become a loss instead.  The momentum indicator is back down on the lower UTL at the close, and while there may be a pop in the morning, With the zero line rejection, I suspect weakness will prevail and it will fall through the last of the TLs on its way downward to the -100 line.  

 

Again, I would like to see positive divergence and a break of the DTL before I'm ready to declare this ST correction is over and reverse back to long positions... in waiting mode now to see how far the SPX corrects before I assess the fractal count again.

 

Link to SPX hourly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/5yiofecbd/

 

Edited by tsharp, 23 March 2017 - 07:19 PM.

[tsharp]

The indicator line on the hourly SPX has now broken downward through the last UTL, and while this wave may be just a shallow wave-iv, I suspect my count needs to be revised so that the ~2400 high is wave-i, where the running wave-ii below is actually a wave-i, wave-ii division of the wave-iii portion, so the cyan wave-i, becomes a fuchsia wave-iii and the cyan wave-ii becomes fuchsia wave-iv, then the remainder becomes wave-v, ending with the first wave-i:iii)... this is becoming my favored fractal count, which if correct, would give us a corrective target somewhere in the range of the previous wave-iv, or in the ~2250 region... if we find support and bounce earlier than that range, then perhaps the present count is correct and we run back upward to the ~2500 range to complete wave-i:iii)... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX hourly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/gv1ml75jt/

 

[tsharp]

Not surprised to see new lower-lows on the ES... might be worth a small stake at about -20 ES, where the target for the H&S is...

 

Link to SP00 hourly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/hscn7t6ft/

 

[tsharp]

Quite a day... yet still no absolutely clear indication that this is a wave-ii, though another clue pointing that direction.  The first drop off the high was at the ~.146 fib retrace (dashed yellow fib lines), and now today's drop stopped at the ~.236 retrace - of the possible wave-i:iii).

 

If this is to be a shallow wave-ii, then this could be as far as it goes, though with all the upward movement made since last February, I would think at least a ~.382 - ~.5 fib retrace would be more likely... we may know by how far this market moves in either direction over the next few days, whether the correction is over, or if there is more to go.  If the SPX falls again to just below today's low with positive divergence in the indicator line, then it may be more likely that the correction is complete, especially if the line can break the DTL in an upward move... watching and waiting.

 

Link to SPX hourly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/g1y7k2eah/

 

[tsharp]

Just one more observation... it appears the momentum peak I've been looking for on the daily SPX slow momentum chart has occurred, at least on this leg.  If that is correct, then I can see the SPX moving on upward to the ~2900 range before a more severe correction takes place, to reset daily and weekly momentum briefly, for the last assault on ~3600.  

 

For now, the daily slow momentum indicator is moving on downward, and I think it will finally find support at the ~+100 level, or even as low a the dashed UTL, before it finds support for the next upward leg... as always... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX daily slow momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/vby2r99sp/